If elected, Donald Trump plans to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history.” In the wake of backlash over Joe Biden’s border policies, Kamala Harris has accepted the need to maintain border restrictions and limits on asylum seekers. But neither candidate captures the reality of immigration in the United States.
American consumers have become accustomed to cheap goods and services, and the economic rationale for large-scale immigration has largely been avoided. For countries that rely on mobile, low-cost labor, the loss of migrant workers could lead to lower productivity and new price inflation pressures.
“It would be an economic disaster for America and the American people,” Zeke Hernandez, an economics professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, said of Trump’s deportation threat. “Not only will immigrants be hurt, but we Americans will also be hurt economically.”
As baby boomers retire and immigration declines, the workforce will struggle to maintain economic output. One recent study estimates that U.S. employers will need to hire 240,000 people a month over the next five years just to replace retirees.
Hernandez, author of a recent book, The Truth about Immigration, argues that immigrants contribute to talent, investment, innovation, consumption and tax revenue. “If we lose those things, we have fewer jobs, a smaller economy, less diversification.”
Eight to nine million illegal immigrants work in essential jobs that Americans are disproportionately reluctant to do or in fields where there is a shortage of workers.
Typically, this is about half of the workforce working in agriculture (one-third of the workforce), construction (about one-quarter), and skilled trades such as drywalling, plumbing, and insulation.
“Illegal immigrants make up a large portion of domestic service, manufacturing, and restaurant kitchen staff. Americans simply don’t do those jobs, or there aren’t enough jobs to go around. But these major When you lose a ‘bottleneck’ worker, the local workforce is also unable to do the work,” Hernandez said.
A study by the Center for Migration Research estimates that undocumented workers contribute $97 billion in federal, state, and local taxes, and removing them from the workforce would eliminate nearly 10 million Americans. It will have a huge impact on the local economy, causing economic hardship.
Families will also be greatly affected. Approximately 5.8 million U.S. households are home to at least one illegal alien, and mass deportations would separate nearly 5 million U.S. households. The cost of raising children born in the United States who are separated from their caregivers is estimated at $116 billion.
Taxpayers would have to foot the bill. A CBS News analysis of federal data shows that arresting and deporting just 1 million of the estimated 11 million to 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. would cost taxpayers more money. could reach about $20 billion, or $19,599 per person, and the cost could be much longer than the period of federal data. Four years of Trump administration.
While business leaders have been largely quiet about President Trump’s plans, perhaps fearing retaliation, some lobbying groups are beginning to tally up the costs of mass deportations. According to Pew Research Center data, the construction sector employs an estimated 1.5 million undocumented workers, representing 13% of the total workforce, a larger share than any other sector.
Construction companies, already facing labor shortages, have warned that the loss of migrant workers will lead to higher prices for new homes. The National Association of Home Builders considers foreign-born workers, regardless of legal status, “an important and flexible source of labor.”
NAHB CEO Jim Tobin told NBC that their losses “have a negative impact on the construction industry and labor supply, exacerbating the housing affordability problem.”
The Business Roundtable says, “Immigration has always been an important part of America’s innovative spirit. The majority of economists and business leaders agree that immigration is a net positive for the U.S. economy. “The system that accommodates these invaluable workers is broken,” he said.
A 2023 study of previous mass deportation efforts, including President Barack Obama’s Secure Communities program, which led to the deportation of nearly 500,000 people from 2008 to 2014, found that The benefits of reduced competition for employment were found to be offset by the reduction in job competition. This is due to a decrease in labor demand due to rising labor costs.
“Police-based enforcement policies aimed at reducing the number of illegal immigrants should consider the potential negative impact on labor market outcomes for immigrants and U.S.-born workers who remain in the U.S.” from the University of Denver. The study concludes.
Similar effects have been seen in the Trump and Biden administrations, where the coronavirus pandemic has reduced the number of immigrants entering the U.S. by about 1 million, creating labor shortages and reduced output, contributing to inflationary pressures. It was done.
Hernandez said the post-pandemic surge in immigration contributed to lower inflation. “Immigrants have allowed businesses to hire again and increase production to meet market demand, and prices have normalized,” he says.
Nevertheless, anti-immigration opponents have been “very effective in flooding the area with false or dubious claims,” Hernandez said.
Biden’s policies, which Harris is now reversing, have created a complex situation for the U.S. Latino community, resulting in declining support for the Democratic Party and the final stages of a desperate campaign to increase Democratic votes. Initiatives are occurring. In 2012, Obama’s approval rating among Latinos was 71%. Eight years later, Biden won 62%. A recent Times/Siena poll showed Harris’ approval rating at 56%.
Ana Valdez, president and CEO of the Latino Donor Collaborative, said negative myths about Latino immigrants are “pure rhetoric… “We know that most of the workforce we need is Latino immigrants.”
Valdez cited Department of Labor statistics that show the number of Latino workers has increased from 10.7 million in 1990 to 29 million in 2020 and is projected to reach 36 million in 2030. They account for 21.2% of every five people in the labor force and will reach 78% of net new workers by 2030.
Without these immigrant workers, the change in middle-class living standards would have been even more dramatic, Valdez said. “Immigrants are the reason we can choose between avocado and chicken every day.”
Valdez, who served in the Clinton administration, cited figures that show Latinos in the U.S. generate $3.6 trillion in GDP, and said the political debate around the issue by both parties has made it clear that all Latinos He said it equated it with illegal immigration and did not reflect the reality supported by economic data.
“If Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris want to win the Latino vote, and if the winner wants to maintain our support after he takes office, they need to change their perspective and message about Latinos and change our “We need to recognize the full range of economic contributions,” she said. Say. “Not to do so would be reckless to their campaigns and to the U.S. economy.”
