Today’s real estate market values competence and transparency, and agents who exhibit these characteristics will thrive in the face of AI, writes CEO Blake O’Shaughnessy.
Here’s what no one in this industry wants to say out loud: This means that the crisis of agent decline has not yet arrived. It’s already here. And AI didn’t cause it.
We’ve spent the better part of two years observing the real estate media cycle centered around artificial intelligence.
Valid question. Interesting discussion. But while we’re having them, the real story is unfolding in plain sight, and it’s far less gripping than a robot apocalypse.
The uncomfortable truth is that the vast majority of licensed agents in this country have no meaningful activity. They’re not closing the deal. They are not building relationships with their customers. They hold licenses and pay dues, but often do little with either.
Numbers don’t lie, but no one reads them.
Membership in the National Association of Realtors has fallen from a peak of 1.6 million at the end of 2022 to about 1.4 million today, and some analysts predict it could fall to 1.2 million by 2026. The industry has been steadily cutting out intermediaries for some time.
Technology didn’t cause that leak. The market did. Inventory was low, prices were high, and here’s the slightly frustrating part: consumers weren’t confident they were getting their money’s worth.
That last part is more important than people want to admit.
Technology is not a threat. The transparency is
For decades, real estate agents have had a structural advantage: information. They knew how much the house would sell for. They knew comps, inventory trends, and off-market trades. Consumers did not. This gap was where the value of an agent lived.
That gap is narrowing. fast.
With Zillow, Redfin, public records, neighborhood data platforms, and new proptech tools, today’s average buyer or seller comes into the conversation with more market information than an agent had access to 20 years ago. That’s not a bad thing. If agents get it right, it’s really great for the industry.
The problem is that many of them don’t.
If your value proposition is built on access and gatekeeping, and that gate is wide open, you need to completely rethink what you’re selling. Some agents did that. Many of them are not. And therein lies the real vulnerability. It’s not a chatbot. Failure to articulate why consumers should pay for assistance.
So who actually wins?
The agent who will succeed in the next cycle will not be the one with the best CRM or the most sophisticated website. They are someone who can sit across from a buyer or seller and answer these three questions honestly and specifically:
What am I actually doing for you? How much does it cost? And why does it cost so much?
that’s it. The entire game is now complete. That means “technicians process lists, tours, and documents.” I’m responsible for pricing strategy, negotiation, and protection if something goes wrong. This is the price. This is the value.
The NAR settlement forever changed the Commission’s debate. Buyer agent compensation is negotiable. Sellers are thinking more seriously about what they pay and why they pay. Gone are the old strategies where fees were built into transactions and no one questioned them.
Agents who embrace this change and are able to segment their services, justify their pricing, and be radically clear about what they offer will do well. Probably better than okay.
Is there anyone who cannot explain their worth? Therein lies the real alternative risk. And it has nothing to do with artificial intelligence.
This is not the end. This is the sorting system.
Let me clarify something. This is not a going away event for real estate agents. People still need help buying and selling homes. Trading remains complex. Negotiation still requires judgment and experience. The human element in real estate is not going anywhere.
But the market is finally, finally, starting to reward the agents who deserve it. talented people. People with a sense of transparency. These are people who can walk into a room and make a convincing case for their place in the deal.
For too long, our industry has protected the mediocre. With low barriers to entry, anyone could obtain a license. A high compensation structure meant that even underperforming agents could make a living even if their work didn’t go well. Both of these are changing thanks to AI and proptech.
The agents who are reading this right now are the ones who are doing the work, who are building real expertise, who know their markets cold-heartedly, and who treat every deal like it actually matters, not you, the ones who have to worry about it. But you have to do it intentionally.
There are some non-negotiables if you want to survive and succeed in this market.
Be radically honest about your pricing. Use actual data, not optimism. If your AI tools, AVM, or predictive analytics are showing you something different than your intuition, look into it. Gone are the days of inflating numbers and purchasing properties. Set the right price on day one and explain exactly how you got there. Automate anything that doesn’t require judgment. Scheduling, follow-up, document preparation, status updates, and marketing workflows. Clients don’t need to manually send calendar invitations. They need you to focus on strategy and negotiation. Make compensation reasonable. Be prepared to explain in plain English what you do, how much it costs, and why it’s worth it. If you can’t articulate your values without hiding behind tradition, you have work to do. Over-communication with transparency. Please share your comps early. Let’s look at the pricing structure line by line. Please show me your net sheet before being asked. Use technology to bring information to the surface instead of hiding it. Focus on advisory work. Clients can find the list themselves. Your experience in risk assessment, contract structure, timing strategies, and negotiation psychology cannot be replicated. Double that.
That’s what adaptation looks like. For everyone else? The threat was never AI. That was always true.
Blake O’Shaughnessy is the co-founder and CEO of Ownii. Connect with him on Instagram and LinkedIn.
