One way to understand the whiplash of the last 24 hours of ceasefire is that giving the interest in a fire exchange between Israel and Iran has been an Israeli trickery that is likely to succeed. Previously, Trump repeatedly admitted that his true purpose was that it consists of Trump’s first stance, that the strikes of Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz “end out in one”, and that Iran should smbam them and return to the table of surrender negotiations. Attack on June 13th.
Last night, a little behind our time, Iran attacked an empty US air force base in Qatar. Also, according to the sub-count, US bases in Syria protecting oil (mostly if they are not fully trucked to Israel). Iran warned the US to attack. Trump than the grand announcement of the ceasefire that begins at 4am, when Iranians said they weren’t given an agreement and even lifted their heads.
As Iran had the streets for a ceasefire before negotiations, they could barely warn about this very irregular process. Iranian Foreign Minister Araguchi Tap danced a little, but he mostly stuck to Iran’s existing position. If Iran stops shootings in Iran, Iran will stop shootings in Israel.
But enough to avoid the antics of the ceasefire, or at least satisfy Iran, which had not been added to certain conditions, including the start time. Israel launched a signature attack on Iran just before Israel and the US were designated, and Iran fired back.
This ceasefire was a joke-like, transparent theatre. Considering the fact that you cannot fulfill your guild:
Alastair Crooke emphasizes that ceasefires usually break down in 2-3 weeks. He and others, the well-known Putin, promoted its effective ceasefire requirements to many details, especially as the designation of independent monitors is being monitored. This kind of no-hing happened.
Israel has a long history of not respecting a ceasefire. For a recent example, see How Israel repeatedly violated the Lebanon ceasefire in November last year.
And now we have Israeli cries violating this false ceasefire, so it goes back to attack. From the Guardian:
The normal overlap of Israel ended up being a big vry to force a very clumsy, if only in the form of Trump. So, expecting more extreme truths, 11 cards can reach the keyboard.
Update 7:00 AM EDT: Juss This post was published and Trump made his first declaration. From the Associated Press:
President Donald Trump says both Israel and Iran have violated ceasefire conditions, accompanied by attacks following the Tuesday deadline to stop hostilities.
Trump commented to a White House reporter before the NATO summit division in The Hague. I expressed my disappointment about the ongoing attack.
“It violated that, but Israel violated that too,” Trump said. “I’m not satisfied with Israel,” he added.
Hill is a more poing account:
“I don’t know what they’re doing – they’re doing it,” Trump threw reporters at the White House before taking off to travel to The Hague for the NATO Summit.
At about the same time, in a true social post, Trump has chosen Israel, a prominent move for the US president, telling his longtime American allies:
Return to the original draft.
But what you need to question. This is in the terrain of the saying that “the definition of madness does the same thing over and over again, and expects a different outcome.” Israel is running out of air defense missiles. They are hungry at their best. Everyone knows that additional patriot missiles are rare glories and batteries are even more so, and the United States can be angered to meet various demands.
And when Israel is eliminated from the air defense that occurs in current travectory, Iran can do a lot of damage with just a drone. No high-end kit required.
Check out Trump’s repeated “No All Tactics and Strategies” ratings.
Last night I met up with Fellow Realists to discuss Iran’s latest after the attack on Qatar’s Aldead Air Base.
The attack appears to have been carefully choreographed to demonstrate an Iranian response with limited scope of escalation, with concerts in Doha and other Gulf states posing concerts of intertwining in Netanyahu’s war.
It is interesting to see that Iranians and Kataris this morning were wise and reaffirmed the importance of their bond.
However, the ceasefire that emerged behind the Iranian strike has been told by Trump and already appears to have been broken to the side. This means that there remains a risk of other Iranian attacks on the US promotion in the Gulf, and pressure on Trump to rise forward, especially from Israeli lobbies.
Keep in mind that Israel has already suffered damage to akeus, at least compared to what its previous sheltered population had to expect.
Israeli media acknowledges: Iran discovered Tel Aviv
Channel 12 TV:
Tel Iran’s direct attack on Aviv turned the city, a symbol of vitality and energy, into a city with no residents, causing a wave of mass immigration.
🔹A city that has always been known… pic.twitter.com/k98amgsxfr
– Sprinter Observer (@sprinterobserve) June 23, 2025
Iran has made all this into Israel without the air force!
Think about it!
Israel was humiliated by Iran even for the support of NATO members!
pic.twitter.com/b9kw34enxz
-Gabe (@gabezzoz) June 24, 2025
Remember Alastair Crook was also taken away from Israel’s rationality of being a safe place for Jews. It’s not a dream, it may never be true again.
Iran also keeps real damage down (although not much is known to many yet), it has already been surfaced from vry’s weak economy. However, while North Korea is in a very bad shape on its front line, it still has some scary missile technology. We Westerners want to think that government legitimacy depends on increasing prosperity. Vanessa Bealy points out that Trump screams “ceasefire.”
Iran has been exposed to the popularity of the region since Israel began offensively. Popularity among local people is unprecedented. If the US tried to isolate Iran, Israel’s Agragsion had an anti-effect. And after Western efforts to organize internal disparities in Iran, national unity within Iran has reached its highest level since 1979. The opposition supported by the West was totally overwhelmed by backlash from Iranian society. Those quarantines do not recover.
Many commentators believe that individually, the long form of Alexander Mercaris, with the US bombing nuclear sites and the IEA not giving any peep-up tiny credibility. Even the Russians, the nuclear and non-proliferating Hawks, are against the IEA’s demands.
“We searched and searched, but found nothing.” – Regarding the IAEA request to disclose the location of Ravrov enriched uranium:
“Now, IAEA General Director Grossi is requesting that Iran be granted access to nuclear facilities to see where the rich materials are… pic.twitter.com/4qzthzw6au
-zlatti71 (@zlatti_71) June 24, 2025
In the meantime, the mountains are not quiet in the front layers of Hormus.
Maritime activity slows down in the Gulf
Kpler ship tracking shows Maritim’s decline #bay The Israeli-Iran conflict began on Friday, June 13th.
In addition to the risk of conflict escalation, subsequent interference and confusion in the navigation system… pic.twitter.com/nzpmm88k5m
-Kpler (@kpler) June 23, 2025
Ah, I’m watching the situation being jammed in the Persian Gulf right now @gcaptain: The significant increase in incidents of GPS obstruction and spoofing along Iranian coasts has raised serious concerns about maritime safety in one of the world’s most important transport channels. According to…
-Andrew Reckin June 23, 2025
Readers suggest that today Iran has already had weeks of oil supply to its sea tankers, which will mitigate the short-term impact on China. I’m not saying Iran does more than harassment of signal jamming, but if you feel it has to climb, this personal opinion is not worse than other great options.
Update 8:00 AM EDT: In a fresh interview, Larry Wilkerson says that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, he will only do so for a week, his contact details say.
Back to original post:
There is also stirring in Iraq, but it is not yet clear what this will convey.
Several drones struck and destroyed French radar at three Iraqi (not us) military facilities: Ali bin Abi Taleb, Balad and Al Taj. Baghdad is not going to condemn any aspect.
You are a drone and did not eat from abroad US military bases enjoying control…
-Elijah J. Magnier🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 24, 2025
Beely Notes:
Several attacks were reported throughout Iraq early on Tuesday morning. Taj region north of Baghdad. Baghdad International Airport. Bharad – Government of Sarah Al Din. Go to Varado Air Force Base and Bakr Air Force Base. Nasirya – DHI QAR government, Imam Ali Air Force Base in southern Iraq. The group has yet to assert responsibility, but the attacks suggest a high level of adjustment on the ground.
Furthermore, evidence that the US is everything for Israel:
Trump’s State Department spokesman Tammy Bruce says America is “the greatest country on earth next to Israel.” pic.twitter.com/0jyxth52qh
-Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) June 22, 2025
This is frizzy.
Given that the ceasefire is already falling apart, there is more commentary on the recklessness of us and Israel, but it is too early to speculate further until we see what the “gangsters who can’t shoot straight” teams do next. We’re not in
