[The essence of this post was completed at launch time, so feel free to comment. But I expect to fluff it out a bit more with commentary from others, so there will be more here at 7;30 AM EST]
Now more than ever, I hope I’m wrong. If the United States or Israel go to war with Iran, it would be the worst possible end of an era, and if Israel uses nuclear weapons, it risks bringing about “the end of the world as we know it.”
Normally, one would expect Trump’s well-established self-preservation instincts (famously manifested in his TACO tendencies) to prevail, as many commentators have noted. The chances of the US carrying out a swift and spectacular attack like the one it carried out in Caracas are slim to none. Only the crews of a few helicopters were at risk, which was mitigated by inside intelligence and assistance. Similarly, the kind of threat represented by the previous rapid use of force in the theater is creating Iranian capitulation to US/Israeli demands to be immediately dissected by Israel.
Furthermore, many experts believe, and have presented ample evidence to support their view, that even if the United States were to concentrate massive firepower in the theater, it would likely be able to sustain a full-strength bombing campaign for a week or two. The United States lacks air defense missiles. Iran is widely portrayed as having enough drones and missiles deeply planted to exhaust these protections and attack selected targets: Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, ships of the aircraft carrier group participating in the operation, and even oil transportation and production facilities in neighboring countries that would have been too useful to the United States. And that’s before you get to the fact that it wouldn’t be difficult for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, declare a fatwa, or call on Shiites in the region to attack the United States, Israel, and its allies.
But President Trump has amassed so many troops in the area that an attack appears imminent. The United States also moved military personnel from bases believed to be vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. Similarly, a very well-connected person (and a name most readers know) wrote about 9 hours ago: “Unless Trump suddenly reverses, we will go to war with Iran within the next 48 hours.” Larry Johnson published a similar view in a new post, “One Minute to Midnight.”
Unable to live up to some of the positive words that came after the US-Iran talks in Geneva on Tuesday, the die is cast… The US is attacking Iran and attempting to cause such social chaos and chaos in Iran that Shia Muslim clerics will be forced to dissolve the Islamic Republic. All U.S. military equipment for this action has been deployed or will soon be deployed. The only wild card is Donald Trump. He issued a deployment order that saw the largest influx of U.S. air combat forces into U.S. military bases in the region since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
Tonight, the NY Times reported the following:
Senior national security officials reportedly told the president that any operation aimed at changing Iran’s leadership has no guarantee of success. . . . “Diplomacy may give the United States more time to prepare its forces, but it also gives Iran more time to plan its retaliation,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University. “Ultimately, the president must consider the costs of attacking Iran. Ironically, his approach makes those costs more likely…” he added.
Here’s another indicator that it’s the legs that are bad… A pizza parlor near the Pentagon in Washington DC and the CENTCOM headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base are seeing spikes in unusual activity… This matches a pattern observed on the eve of previous US military operations in Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq.
Check out Mr. Johnson:
Trump administration officials say there is a 90% chance of an attack on Iran. He can’t do it without Congress. @RepThomasMasie And I have the War Powers Resolution to discuss and vote on war before it puts our troops at risk. I intend to file a motion to dismiss to force a vote on it next week. https://t.co/FWQ245D6B8
— RoKhanna (@RoKhanna) February 18, 2026
and:
WSJ: President Trump has been briefed on a range of military action options against Iran, all of which are aimed at inflicting maximum damage to the Islamic regime and its proxies.
— Energy Headline News (@OilHeadlineNews) February 19, 2026
Armchair Warlord asked for a different opinion:
Some thoughts about the current situation in Iran:
1. As I noted at the time, developments before this week were consistent with a show of force to emphasize a negotiating position rather than a full-scale operation. That’s starting to change, but the U.S. Air Force… pic.twitter.com/5ZAU4Uvi17
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) February 19, 2026
This section near the end of his tweet shows why he’s making the buildup such a huge threat display.
Previous U.S. deployments to the Middle East are intended to give President Trump a credible military option should he decide to use force against Iran—previous deployments were unreliable and would have been perceived as such by the Iranians—but it is irresponsible to talk about war being inevitably imminent or that these forces will actually be sufficient for the absolutely gigantic task at hand (Iran is a country of 90 million people and a geographic fortress).
Action may not be as urgent as Johnson claimed, or perhaps Trump is still trying to find a way out.
The U.S. military is preparing for a possible attack on Iran as early as Saturday, but action is likely to be delayed until after this weekend. — CBS pic.twitter.com/1mgKmMcWuV
— Usman Goraya (@MrHunny01) February 19, 2026
So why is Mr. Trump seemingly on the wrong track? One is that he has bad intelligence, as did America and Europe before the special military operation was launched. Recall that at the Munich Security Conference in February 2022, participants were blindsided by the prospect of a pending war with Russia. They were convinced that Russia would collapse under the weight of shock and awe sanctions and presumed military incompetence. Today, too many commentators trumpet that Iran is weaker than ever in its neighboring military-industrial complex, even though recent regime change attempts have only further strengthened support for the Iranian government. But a significant segment of the population appears to believe that if the United States inflicts enough damage on Iran, the people will rise up against their rulers. Daniel Davis provided some frothing-at-the-mouth fresh news clips from the hawks.
🚨 Trump’s Instinct vs. Powerful War Lobby 🚨
We expose how people like President Trump’s most trusted aides, Mike Pompeo, behaved (@MikePompeo), Prime Minister Netanyahu (@Netanyahu), Sen Lindsey Graham (@Graham Blog; @LindseyGrahamSC ) – Pushing President Trump towards war with Iran – even though he is better… pic.twitter.com/3yIgufOlMY
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) February 18, 2026
But there is another reason that I think is more compelling. President Trump is ultimately not responsible for whether to go to war with Iran. Israel is. Israel can force a conflict by attacking Iran, as it did during the 12-day war. The Trump administration, allied with the Zionists, will have to come to Israel’s defense. Now, Iran has warned that it will respond violently to any attack by the United States or Israel.
So the election isn’t really about fighting Iran, but who will pull the trigger: America or Israel? All things being equal, the United States would likely prefer to control timing and launch the strongest possible first strike to increase the probability of success.
But why has Israel embarked on a path that seems so suicidal?
First, as we have previously reported, readers with networks adjacent to Israeli security report that most Israelis genuinely believe that Israel will win.
Second, as we have long noted, support for Israel among Jews in the United States has declined generationally. Despite the Zionist billionaire’s great political influence, starting in the early 2000s young Jews had no interest in Israel at all. Many people took to the streets to protest the genocide before the United States began cracking down on these demonstrations. The asset of being able to rely on full US support for Israeli adventurism in neighboring countries is therefore weakening. And that’s before you consider that Trump is a particularly debt-free Zionist/Evangelical Christian president.
He also noted that Israel likely has influence over Trump because it owns Kompromat.
Therefore, despite the current emergence of great powers, Israel’s power in the Belt and Road is destined to decline. And if Democrats take control of the House in the midterm elections, we can expect them to face new constraints (assuming, charitably, that actually happens). They will certainly begin impeachment proceedings, which would not only further undermine President Trump’s contested authority domestically, but would also consume a significant amount of his time and mental energy. He is very fond of acting as a colossus who travels around the world, and once again he finds himself in an inferior position.
Mr. Trump has retreated into a no-win position. And as shown above, Israel can and will ultimately force President Trump into war if he tries to defeat the withdrawal. Mr. Trump cannot stand being controlled. Thus, both his ego needs and the U.S. strategic value of controlling the timing and nature of the attack argue for him to continue acting despite the huge and very real downsides.
