[This Iran war post is launching again before complete. It is not likely to be done before 8:30 AM EDT. Please FIRST AND FOREMOST go to our must-read submission by Kevin Kirk, on Israel’s nuclear weapons program. Please circulate that article widely. When you then return to our update, feel free to comment straight away, but do refresh your browsers and re-skim at 8:30 AM]
An important development in the last days or two of the Iran war is the increasing recognition in the current and de facto media that Iran has succeeded in inflicting significant economic and kinetic pain, and that Western efforts to blunt it are not having much effect. For example, major media live blog headlines will always put attacks on Israel first, and Iranian actions either will not be mentioned or will be put second. We will soon turn to the conditions that facilitate that recognition, such as the nearly non-existent prospects of forcing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and Iran continuing to escalate on the battlefield while depleting the missile defenses of the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states. Moreover, even Foreign Affairs, the prophetic symbol of national planning, has written about the superiority of Iranian drones, which we will discuss shortly.
Consider the Bloomberg banner headline 6:45 a.m. EDT.
Wall Street Journal:
Indeed, there is a notable lack of agency at the BBC.
The key development of the day was that Iran, which had been attacking U.S. military bases and other targets in the Gulf (as noted by John Mearsheimer in a new conversation with Chris Hedges), was not attacking Israel much more violently than during the 12-day war. The Revolutionary Guards said it would now focus more attention on Israel. Check out the contrast between the two videos below. In the French 24 newspaper, a reporter explains that Iran appears to be sending drones and missiles at an almost leisurely pace in most areas of Israel (we are looking at the former Tel Aviv, where significant damage has been reported), with the aim of keeping Israelis primarily in shelters, disrupting economic life, and fraying nerves. Also, be sure to listen as she details new political scandals.
The Hindustan Times explains how Iran has significantly stepped up its attacks on Israel, and how those attacks are now coordinated with Hezbollah.
While much of the world is concerned about the supply of energy and goods from the Gulf, Sal Mercaliano spoke about how there is no relief in sight. He says ships still pass through the strait every day, but oddly he does not indicate that most, if not all, are Iranian (Mearsheimer points out that Iranian ships are still able to enter and exit). He also mentions the US insurance system as if it makes a difference in the war risk coverage provided by insurers, but that doesn’t seem to be much of a factor (see S&P explaining why there are well-founded doubts about that). He made a number of important observations, including that fuel for ships will be in short supply and that airlines will apply surcharges to cover rising costs.
Janta Ka focuses on Iran’s destruction of two U.S. oil tankers.
Paul R provides further concerns about the risks to ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz in a new Defense Security Asia article, “U.S. Navy’s new Strait of Hormuz nightmare: Iran’s ‘Azdar’ stealth underwater drone could disrupt global shipping and redefine naval warfare.” However, please note that this article is not clear on whether these drones are still being deployed. However, Jantaka suggested that underwater drones were part of the attack on the US tanker.
Continuing to think about dynamic warfare: Mearsheimer said the United States intends to continue climbing the escalation ladder, even if it only results in worse outcomes. Iran has already said it will abandon its approach of retaliatory strikes (apparently a result of the attack on Tehran’s refinery, which released noxious smoke into the city) and fire more freely. The US attacked the data center of a state-owned bank in Tehran during business hours, killing an employee. The military’s apparent excuse was that it had processed the payment of salaries to IRCG members. Iran soon began attacking US banks in the Gulf region. Mearsheimer warned that the United States, which had previously restrained Israel from attacking Iran’s desalination and oil facilities, could recklessly launch attacks. Needless to say, Israel and family dictatorships are much more vulnerable to retaliatory attacks.
Troublingly, the Wall Street Journal is pushing the Trump administration in that direction, arguing that it won’t back down in a conflict it can’t win. The end of the Iran war immediately poses major risks for the United States and its allies:
If President Trump declares victory, halts bombing, and begins withdrawing the vast air and naval assets he has amassed in the Middle East, it could calm global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters worried about the possibility of another forever war.
But leaving Iran’s angry and defiant theocratic regime in place, with its nuclear stockpile and remnants of missiles and drones, would effectively give Tehran control of global energy markets. It would also sacrifice the security of U.S. partners and allies and perhaps increase the likelihood of another, more devastating regional war.
On other aspects of the movement war. An open question is the extent to which the United States can operate from its 27 bases in the region. Note that the term “base” is used liberally. Some are more accurately called installations. It’s beyond my pay grade to know how much can be used to launch an attack, rather than serving in a support capacity such as logistics for example. As we mentioned, Richard Medhurst has collected many photos of them showing Iran repeatedly attacking them, and Medhurst said they are being turned into dust.
But how many people are in such a condition? Larry Johnson provides some additional information in Donald Trump’s war against Iran is turning into a fiasco.
On March 11, 2026, The New York Times published an interactive feature analyzing the damage to US forces and related facilities in the Middle East as the war between the US, Israel, and Iran continues. The study uses high-resolution commercial satellite imagery (from sources such as Airbus DS and Planet Labs), verified social media videos, and official statements from U.S. officials and Iranian state media to document at least 17 affected U.S. sites, including bases housing U.S. troops, air defense infrastructure, and diplomatic facilities. The analysis, which is current as of March 10, 2026, highlights Iran’s retaliatory strikes (thousands of missiles and drones) launched in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran that began around late February 2026.
Iranian attacks began shortly after the start of the conflict (e.g., after February 28) and targeted 13 locations in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Iraq.
Kuwait: Multiple airstrikes on Ali Al Salem Air Base (March 1), Camp Arifjan (March 4), Shuaiba Port (March 2, six U.S. service members were killed when a partial roof collapse was seen on satellite images), and Camp Buehring (March 5, a drone explosion near a sports complex caused no casualties). Bahrain: US Navy 5th Fleet Headquarters attacked (February 28/March 1), including damage to communications radome shown in verified video. Saudi Arabia: Prince Sultan Air Base (March 1), one US service member was killed. Qatar: Al Udeid Air Base (March 9) and Umm Dahal Radar Site (damaged AN/FPS-132 radar). UAE: Al Dhafra Air Base (March 3), Jebel Ali Port (March 1), Al Ruwais (near THAAD forces), Al Sader facility. Jordan: Severe damage to air defense sensors at Muwafaq Salti Air Base (March 4). Iraq: Erbil Airport (March 1). Others: Attacks have reached Turkey (NATO intercepted a missile aimed at Incirlik Air Base on March 4, but Iran denies this).
Some bases (e.g. al-Udeid, Ali al-Salem, al-Dhafra) were attacked multiple times. Diplomatic targets included the US consulate in Dubai and embassies in Kuwait City, Riyadh, and Baghdad (March 8 rocket attack, no casualties confirmed).
Although the US Central Communications Agency continues to claim that there has been little damage caused by Iran, in reality Iran has crippled the US ability to launch and sustain combat operations from the bases and facilities mentioned above.
