Eve here. Eve here. Andrew Koribko’s conclusion about Iran seems reasonable, but another route can be reached there. However, Iran has a considerable body as well as evidence that Iran has more than Ango, in the deep sash-like missile way that they can survive the nuclear forces against the US nuclear strike. It would mean the end of Israel and could become a number of Saudi oil production facilities. That’s even before we reach the question of whether Iran has the means to fire down a B2 pump that is not entirely stealth, as it has the means to detect when it reaches Iran’s airspace.
So that equation is not a lack of leverage (it is a lot of leverage to drive oil prices to the moon on a sable-made basis), but the US has not embraced Iran.
However, the US had seriously underestimated Russia before special military operations and the SEM overly discounted the capabilities of hostile power (you, the US made them hostile…). Iran may have cultivated that recognition by creating a nuclear program that is believed to be able to build bombs in a short order if he was confident that it had mutually guaranteed destructive capabilities in regards to Israel, the region’s US bases and the region’s oil infrastructure. Do I need to bring my nuclear capabilities closer to my hands?
Korybko does not point out that, as he did in a recent post, the US demands of Iran are extreme that Iran cannot say yes. They want to give up not only nuclear development, but also their missiles, which leads to traditional deterrence. And why does Sean Iran bother this exercise in general with US deals with Demondai and Iran?
Many commentators are weighing the possibility that Israel (and therefore the US) will attack Iran given the accumulation of military forces in the region (see John Helmer in his latest talk with Nima as well as Diego Garcia’s B2.
Given that the US is already frequently attacking its leadership efforts, it is possible that the immediate US goal is not Houcis. If the US succeeds in stopping Houthi’s attack on Israeli shipments, the recently leaked Hegseth memo may return to Iran as the US really wanted to focus on China.
However, it appears that the US will conquer Ansar Allah, as Saudi Arabia and past US efforts have failed. Certainly, when we collectively get lucky, it is possible for Houchys to even deliver a bloody nose to the US, to shoot down one of those priced prices B2s. If that goes well, it will lead to a major rethinking about taking on Iran.
Andrew Kolibko, a Moscow-based American political analyst, specializes in the global systematic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate degree under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
Tensions between Iran and the US are boiling after Trump threatened to bomb Iran after refusing to reject a direct talks with a new nuclear deal. He also ordered the Pentagon to move six B-2 stealth bombers. This was thought to be 30% of the US stealth bomber fleet and 30% completely at Diego Garcia on the Indian Ocean Island. Iran’s supreme leader responded by promising strong retaliation if the US attacked, but one of his chief advisers warned that their country had “no option.”
The latest annual threat assessment in the US intelligence report community claims that “Iran is not building on nuclear weapons,” but there have been long-standing concerns that it can do so as soon as a decision becomes potential.
The US renewed bombing campaign against Yemen’s Iranian Hooti allies may have been intended to send a message to the Islamic Republic, which aims to hold a direct talks on the issue, by showing that Trump 2.0 actually has a political will to launch militias. Action if you refuse. While refusing Iran’s recent demands, Trump may curb this for now as Iran could cause unacceptable retaliatory damage to US regional bases and allies.
Diplomacy has not yet been spewed as Iran did not reject the indirect consultations of the kinds of Russia offered to mediate after being asked by Russia to do so. So it was premature for the US to seriously consider bombing Iran at this point, but if indirect consultations fail to reach the deal, that option remains off the table. With Iran lacking leverage for fair dealing with the US, eithher must either accept the annoyance or prepare for the major war that it may lose.
Iran is a civilization that he is proud of, and it is the difficulty of getting it to agree with the dramatic curb of the nuclear program, which has repeatedly positioned itself as a weapon in the second class course in the future. From an Iranian perspective, this allowed Israel to burn and launch a massive traditional war or nuclear war against it.
That said, Iran refuses to agree to a reluctant Russian-born, Russia-born contract, could cause unacceptable retaliatory damage to US regional bases and allies (first of all Israel), but the US nuclear triad and WO cannot do such damage to being destroyed. Iran was unable to intervene in Russia to support Aisher as its newly updated strategic partnership did not include mutual defense obligations and Moscow did not want to have a war with Washington or West Jerusalem.
The US has managed to survive a massive war with Iran, but still prefers to avoid it. Creative diplomacy could win unless the US demands that it be limited to significantly curbing Iran’s nuclear energy programmes and expands to include curbs in support of regional allies and ballistic missile programs. For that to happen, Russia must devise a series of incentives for Iran, which the US has approved, Agumes, and Iran has approved Agumes, but it is still far apart and Trump may hit first if he loses patience.
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1 Not an Israeli-friendly commentator, but is associated with many military matters, but after Iran-Iran succeeded in assassinating Hassan Nasrara and Ismail Hanie, Israel’s efforts to hit Iran were suppressed by Basil pilot Kohl Court Court “see” and therefore claimed that they could film their modest f-35s. However, the F-35 clearly casts a lot of electronic signals, making it less stealth than the B2.
2 I discount the days to claims under 2 weeks, but “not longer than that” SEMS reliable. There’s also the wee issue of missile delivery, but I read experts who claim that Iran had already solved major technical issues when building polar missiles.
