On March 24, 2019, a stop sign will be seen at the security checkpoint at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, DC.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
The forecast market reflects skepticism that the federal government is about 70% likely to close on Wednesday, and lawmakers will attack last-minute deals to fund the agency.
Kalshi and Polymarket users have increased their bets on the government closure after the Labor Bureau said it would not release its main employment report on Friday and then said it had closely monitored it on Wall Street in the event of the closure. On the weekend, the odds were about 50%.
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The rising odds emphasized deepening the impairment of Congress, where conflicts above spending levels escalated. Democrats hope to include an extension to the Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies in the funding bill, but Republican leaders say debate should wait until the closure is avoided.
President Donald Trump is expected to meet with the top four Congressional leaders on Monday after abruptly cancelling a meeting with Democratic leaders last week.
The Trump administration last week told federal agencies to begin preparing for mass shootings if Congress does not agree to a deal to avoid closure. If the White House follows that threat, it marks a break from the precedent. In past closures, federal employees have been fasted but have not been fired forever.
