A Border Patrol agent sits in his car guarding the U.S.-Mexico border fence in Nogales. [+] Arizona. Illegal immigration from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, the four countries where illegal immigration was until recently the most problematic, has plummeted by 98% in the past two years. (Photo by Ariana Dresler/AFP via Getty Images)
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Illegal immigration from the four countries that until recently were seen as the most problematic has plummeted by 98% in the past two years. Recently released Border Patrol immigration data shows stunning reversals for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Analysts believe the Biden administration’s use of legal tools, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy, and increased cooperation with Mexico led to the large drop at the border. Illegal immigration is lower now than when Donald Trump left office, a fact neither party has mentioned in their campaigns.
Latest illegal immigration number
If you watch Donald Trump’s rallies, you’ll see that in September 2024, the number of encounters with Border Patrol agents at the Southwest border will drop to 53,858, down from 75,316 in January 2021 when Trump was president. No one would know that the price had dropped significantly. Since July 2024, the number of monthly encounters has fallen below 60,000. The number of Border Patrol encounters was higher in January 2021 than in September 2024, despite the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic during the last month of the Trump administration. (Generally, the fewer encounters, the fewer trespasses.)
Most Americans don’t realize how much illegal immigration has fallen, especially from the four countries that received the most attention in 2022. In December 2022, Border Patrol arrested 24,764 Venezuelans, 15,280 Nicaraguans, 7,960 Cubans, and 1,392 Haitians on the southwest border. The total number of encounters from the four countries is up to 49,396.
By September 2024, the number of encounters with border agents in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and Haiti had decreased by 98% to 1,003. The Biden administration’s decision to create a humane parole program has been decisive. By allowing 30,000 people from four countries to obtain entry and work permits each month, Biden officials are creating a legal pathway for the Mexican government to take in an equal number of deportees from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and Haiti. We obtained the cooperation of It is difficult or even impossible to expel people from these four countries to their home countries.
Between December 2022 (the month before the parole program began) and November 2023, encounters with Cubans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans with Border Patrol agents decreased by 92%, according to an analysis by the National Policy Foundation. but increased by 18% for individuals in non-parole countries. .
The numbers show a similar pattern over a longer period of time. Border Patrol encounters for people from countries without humane parole programs decreased by 56% from December 2022 to September 2024. This is far less than the 98% drop in the number of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who had access to border security during the same period. Lawful entry provided by the Humanitarian Parole Program.
Once Haitians were able to legally enter the country with exemptions at ports of entry, their migration patterns changed. Refugee groups say the exemption has significantly reduced the number of Haitians attempting to cross the border illegally. The immediate impact is visible, with Border Patrol encounters decreasing from 7,762 in May 2022 to 145 in June 2022. Yael Shacher of Refugees International said a June 2022 Washington, D.C. Circuit ruling that families cannot be expelled without review is contributing to the increased use of the exemption.
Analysts note that exceptions to Title 42’s expulsion authority and the ability to use the CBP One app have helped reduce illegal immigration from Haiti. “What this shows is that legal tools can be more effective than deterrence,” said Tom Cartwright of Witness at the Border.
President Trump’s illegal immigration policy is unlikely to be effective
If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, we should expect policies similar to those the last time he occupied the White House. His policy will focus on enforcement, including a pledge to add 10,000 Border Patrol agents. Another question is what observers consider the potentially brutal policy of deporting millions of people who have lived in the United States for years without legal status. It is.
Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a rally [+] July 9, 2024, Doral, Florida. Many of his speeches at rallies focus on illegal immigration. (Photo by GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images)
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Relying on government spending on immigration has not been effective in reducing illegal immigration, according to an NFAP analysis of historical data. “Studies show that there is an overall lack of correlation between illegal immigration, the number of Border Patrol agents, and immigration spending.The analysis shows that there is no correlation between illegal immigration, the number of Border Patrol agents, and immigration spending. We have found that using the United States is a more effective and humane way to reduce the number of people entering the United States illegally.”
In the 1990s, an increase in Border Patrol agents and a shift in strategy towards deterrence forced migrants to cross into more dangerous areas. As a result, more workers are staying in the U.S. rather than risking their lives crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. There were unintended consequences. According to the Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. illegal immigrant population grew from 3.5 million to 11.8 million between 1990 and 2007.
Many have criticized the Biden administration for the high number of people who have come to the U.S. border fleeing political and economic crises in Venezuela and other parts of Latin America. But the Biden administration maintained the Trump administration’s coronavirus-era Title 42 policy, which generally allows border officials to expel people who cross the border without granting asylum claims, until May 2023.
An analysis by NFAP shows that despite critics’ claims that Joe Biden has an “open borders” policy, 442,693 people were expelled under Title 42 powers during the Trump administration. In contrast, the Biden administration used Title 42 powers to expel 2,518,215 people. Title 42 was used more during the Biden administration, in part because of how long the Biden administration maintained the policy.
When Donald Trump was president, his administration was unable to stop Central Americans and others from coming to the United States fleeing serious problems in their home countries. Under the Trump administration, Border Patrol arrests at the Southwest border increased by more than 100% from 2016 to 2019 (from 408,870 to 851,508). The number of Border Patrol encounters at the southwest border declined when the coronavirus pandemic began, but by October 2020 it had increased by more than 300%, from 16,182 in April 2020 to 69,032 in October 2020. increased.
Crackdowns on illegal immigration will become even more difficult if President Donald Trump sticks to ending the humanitarian parole program and ends the use of the CBP One app, which allows individuals to book appointments at ports of entry. If there is no way to enter the country legally and apply for asylum or get a job, many may choose to enter the country illegally and take a chance.
