In this exclusive series on Inman, Windermere Chief Economist Jeff Tucker looks at jobs, interest rates and other numbers you need to know right now.
Take a closer look at the latest employment statistics, interest rates, and inventory.
Bad news in employment statistics
The first number you need to know this week is bad news: 181,000. That’s the total number of jobs added in all of 2025, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This data follows standard annual revisions that update the model to match more accurate but less timely data sources.
These revisions led to the conclusion that job growth essentially stalled in 2025 and was much worse than even the weak monthly jobs report indicated. Although this total increase in employment is up compared to the previous year’s total of millions of jobs, the trend of slower growth has been evident for quite some time.
Good news on employment statistics
The second number to know this week was good news in the latest jobs report: 4.3%. This is January’s unemployment rate, which has fallen again from November’s high of 4.5% to summer 2025 levels.
This is one indicator that the labor market may have started turning a corner this winter, showing some improvement at the start of the year after several consecutive months of weakness.
These are only preliminary numbers, but combined with the strong economic tailwind from the huge tax cuts in last year’s budget, it appears the country is poised for stronger economic growth this spring.
Will the mortgage market return to normal?
Third number you need to know right now: 1.84 percentage points. This is the average spread, or how much higher the 30-year mortgage rate was than the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in the first week of February. This means that after about four years of truly abnormal spread widening, we are knocking on the door of normal spreads. This has been a major source of pain for homebuyers when trying to get a mortgage.
Last month, I talked about the surprise announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were buying mortgage-backed securities, and I think the evidence is that news of that purchase plan helped bring this spread down the last 30 basis points in the last month alone.
So what are mortgage interest rates like now? Well, it’s hovered around 6 to 18 percent throughout the year. That’s at least a half-point, and perhaps three-quarters or overall point improvement from this point in 2025 for most borrowers.
I think the point here is that most of the expected improvement in mortgage interest rates has been seen due to the elimination of spreads. This is a little bittersweet. While it’s great news that that happened, we are less optimistic about the prospects for further interest rate declines in the short term, as the potential avenues for interest rate improvement have run their course.
That will depend on the overall interest rate and inflation environment cooling, which will make the outlook even grimmer. The big increase in borrowing that begins with this year’s budget is likely to push up Treasury yields, and the boost to economic growth should also keep inflation elevated.
So my takeaway for anyone considering a mortgage is that interest rates have fallen significantly, and given what’s expected over the next 12 months, there’s no point in sitting on the sidelines hoping for further rate declines.
Housing inventory you should know
Turning to the housing market, the number of active listings at the end of January was 913,000, the highest since January 2020, on the eve of the pandemic. In other words, nationally, inventories are finally returning to something close to normal. The 10% increase in inventory continues a consistent trend since May of last year, with the number of active listings increasing, but at an increasingly slower pace.
I think this fact is good news for everyone. Buyers have more options to choose from this spring and sellers don’t have to worry about competing with excess inventory, but it’s always worth standing out from the competition, so be prepared to look your best when listing your home this spring.
Jeff Tucker is principal economist at Windermere Real Estate in Seattle, Washington. Connect with him on X or Facebook.
