Eve is here. In the early 2000s, researchers associated with the Department of Defense warned of massive climate change from regions such as Bangladesh, which are expected to experience major flooding, and how it could be geopolitically destabilizing. was. Below are relatively minor aspects of the phenomenon. Retirees who previously preferred warmer climates are now reversing their previous pattern of migrating to the southern United States and favoring cooler climates further north. I think we’ll see similar changes among wealthier groups in Europe.
While this may not seem very important in the grand scheme of things, it can impact real estate values and the level of commercial activity in areas that are less desirable compared to new “deserted” spots. Masu. And this impact will likely extend beyond people who move or split their time between the two locations. Florida, for example, is a vacation destination apart from its residential appeal for seniors. Golf courses are a big attraction not only for them but also for vacationers. Golfing in the heat is not an attractive proposition. Therefore, the “busy season” may be shorter. This means there will be fewer tourist attractions such as good restaurants, making it less attractive as a place for retirees and other part-timers.
Now, some might argue that less travel is a very good thing, with more people staying put rather than going far on vacation or moving between places of residence. . But that is still a long way from happening. On the other hand, for those who can afford it, relocating at the last minute can make the situation worse.
Written by Kate Parker. First published: Yale Climate Connections
Nuisance flooding occurred in Miami, Florida in October 2016. (Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons user B137 / CC BY-NC 2.0)
>Migration patterns have been observed in Florida and other sunny southern states for more than 50 years. It’s an influx of not-so-rare snowbirds from northern states flocking south to join the sunbirds in an effort to escape winter. However, the opposite trend is now forming, with some species of Great Plover becoming emigrated due to the growing effects of climate change.
A new study sheds light on population changes across the South, particularly in areas already hit hard by climate change, such as Florida and Texas. Heat appears to be a factor in this migration north, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. People may also migrate on a smaller scale within cities, from communities that frequently experience flooding.
Heat is driving people north
The southern United States is always hot and was an inhospitable place to live before the 1960s. The high temperature and humidity can lead to heatstroke and death without proper cooling methods. But then along came the air conditioner, a life-saving invention that changed the landscape forever. In fact, despite the warming trend caused by climate change, the proliferation of HVAC systems is still reducing heat-related deaths by about 3,600 people per year.
As a result of this new indoor comfort, Americans flocked to the South in droves. Snowbirds have become famous for growing tired of the bitter cold up north and migrating to warmer climates during their peak season, but they haven’t just retired. Populations in southern counties increased rapidly across all age groups and education levels.
That is, until recently.
Sylvian Leduc and Daniel J. Wilson, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, looked at immigration trends and found clear signs that fewer people are moving south.
In their study, “Moving from the Snowbelt to the Sunbelt, the End of an Era?” they investigated changes in the population of counties that experience both extreme cold and extreme heat. From the 1970s to the 2010s, southern communities that experienced the hottest days consistently showed signs of growth.
But now the authors are finding that some U.S. residents are moving away from areas where extreme heat is increasing, which researchers attribute to climate change. .
How hot is hot?
As global temperatures rise, it’s no surprise that the hottest days are also increasing. Heat waves, defined as two or more days of extreme heat, are on the rise almost everywhere, but especially in the South of the United States.
These bar graphs and maps show changes in the number of heat waves per year (frequency) and the number of days between the first and last heat wave of the year (season length). These data were analyzed for 50 U.S. metropolitan areas from 1961 to 2021. The graph shows the 10-year average for all 50 metropolitan areas. The size/color of each circle in the map indicates the rate of change per decade. Hatching represents cities where the trend is not statistically significant. (Image credit: Globalchange.gov)
The graph above uses data from many years of weather stations monitored by NOAA.
Places like Miami, Tampa, and New Orleans aren’t just a little hotter than they were in the 1960s, when AC first moved into the city. They experience more than eight additional heat waves each year. Not only that, but the heatwaves lasted longer, and the seasons became more than 80 days longer.
Even in the same 20 years, the number of extremely cold days has been decreasing.
Image credit: EPA
In the map above, which depicts the change in the number of abnormally cold days since 1948, it’s easy to see where the increase has occurred. Communities with fewer frigid days dominate the map.
Leduc and Wilson said this change is spurring a reversal of trends, sending more people north and keeping them.
Their study also looked at demographic trends and found that the population was not moving evenly, with highly educated professionals in their early careers and retirees moving most noticeably out of the South. . Both groups are traditionally the most mobile. Snowbirds have long flocked south for peak season to escape the cold, but the study found their numbers have reversed in the past 10 to 20 years.
>Escape from flood
Climate change is causing more heavy rainfall, rising sea levels and more frequent flooding. And it’s driving major changes in how and where Americans buy real estate.
Forty percent of the population lives near the coast, and rising sea levels are causing flooding. They are rising 5 to 8 inches on average, but faster along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. This means that when hurricanes threaten these areas, they create even higher and more destructive storm surges.
South Florida, where sea levels have already risen by 1 foot and could rise another 2 feet by 2050, is a notable example of this trend. Jeremy Porter leads climate impact research at First Street, an organization that connects climate change and financial risk. He said storm surge flooding in Miami has received so much media coverage in recent years that homebuyers have intentionally avoided flood-prone areas because they’ve seen it on the news.
Porter and his team studied the migration patterns of people living in flood-prone areas with a fine-toothed comb. Their study found 818,000 “climate abandonment areas” – areas whose population has declined directly as a result of increased flood risk due to climate change. This is expected to result in up to 3 million people relocating and a further 2.5 million leaving areas at high risk of flooding over the next 30 years.
This study was able to identify movements that others had missed: movements that occurred locally. As climate change increases the threat of flooding, people who don’t want to stay at home but can’t leave the city due to work or family commitments can move out of flood-prone areas while staying within their communities. I’m doing it.
Hurricanes Ian, Helen, and Milton all caused significant damage to parts of Florida’s west coast in the past two years. Mr Porter said the destruction was likely to lead to further population shifts in the near future.
“When something so unusual happens, you can’t remember anything else. People don’t react to it,” he says. “But when you have one thing happen, and the next year you have another thing, and then two years later another thing, you end up withdrawing from it and walking away. It will happen.”
Whether people are being forced from their homes by floods or migrating of their own volition in search of a cooler future, U.S. migration patterns are changing and climate change is changing. If unchecked, it has serious potential impacts on southern communities.
