Eve is here. I’ve seen claims that the US contacted Iran and asked it to stand down in the face of what was essentially a theatrical/face-saving attack (what happened with the “destruction” of its nuclear facilities), and Iran said no (sorry for not denying it). What if Lorient has this right to strike or trade? The United States is making excessive and unreasonable demands regarding negotiations between Washington and the Iranian government.
Recent regime change attempts in Iran seem to have stiffened some people’s spines considerably. Iran said it would treat any new attack as war and retaliate. Alastair Crook said Iran had communicated that the plan included closing the Strait of Hormuz for at least three months. A sharp rise in oil prices in the run-up to the midterm elections would be fatal to the Republican Party, if charitably so. So Trump needs another face-saving retreat. And Greenland has indicated it is willing to accept it all as a huge success, accepting only a fraction of its original demands. So what Korybko says below could help Trump defeat the withdrawal.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website.
Redirecting Iranian oil exports from China to India in exchange for partial US sanctions relief could accomplish the goal of depriving China of some of the resources it needs to sustain its rapid rise as a superpower, without risking a disastrous regional war, and could fend off a new US attack.
The U.S. aircraft carrier deployment to West Asia and newly announced air training exercises ominously suggest that a new U.S. attack on Iran is on the horizon, one that could seek to militarily “Balkanize” neighboring Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and/or Turkiye (all of which are allied with each other). In relation to this scenario, Middle East Eye recently reported that the Turkish Foreign Ministry outlined a ruling on plans to create a “buffer zone” in Iran, ostensibly to protect refugees.
Turkiye will definitely arrange a “buffer” with Azerbaijan, as they consider themselves “one nation, two nations” and there is a large Azerbaijani population on the border. And that could lead to a joint operation to forcibly annex northwestern Iran to Azerbaijan and create a Turkish superstate. Even if a specific scenario were not developed in which the prerequisite US attack would lead to large-scale destabilization of Iran, Turkiye could still intervene under the pretext of fighting Kurdish separatists.
Regardless, there is still a chance that Trump will not attack Iran, as he has claimed: “They want a deal. I know that. They’ve called me a lot. They want talks.” Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said in mid-January that any deal would need to address Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities, existing enrichment material stockpile, ballistic missiles, and regional partnerships with nonstate allies (or “proxies,” as he termed them). Reaching such an agreement may be difficult in the near future.
However, Iran may be able to buy time and force the United States to drop some of its demands through creative energy diplomacy, diplomacy that is in line with the “Trump Doctrine” as understood in the new National Security and Defense Strategy. As explained here, a key part of that is putting the United States in a position to deny China access to the energy and markets it needs to sustain growth and, by extension, its rapid rise as a superpower.
It was recently evaluated that “the United States wants to replicate the Venezuelan model in Iran.” This means that the United States at least wants to exert influence over Iran’s energy industry, especially its exports. Iran boasts some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, but U.S. sanctions have made production and exports difficult, so overseas sales have been kept to a minimum. Most of what is currently being sold is sent to China, where it is sold at a deep discount. The United States clearly has an interest in changing this situation.
Therefore, Iran may offer to shift its energy exports to India, but India is pressuring the US to dump Russian crude oil. However, the United States would need to lift some of its sanctions against Iran, and President Trump could do so to deny China access to Iranian oil without risking a regional war that could follow further attacks by the United States. Russia may also accept that India reduce its oil imports if it avoids possible “Balkanization” by Iran and the consequent creation of a Turkic superstate on its southern border.
Any deal over Ukraine is likely to include sanctions relief to facilitate it, so Russia can always get new oil customers, but if Iran becomes “Balkanized,” Russia won’t be able to bring it back. Furthermore, Russia’s north-south transport corridor with India via Iran would not be viable, which is another reason why Russia supports the Iran-US deal. Apart from Iran’s strategic surrender to the United States, the creative energy diplomacy proposed in this analysis is the best bet to avoid further attacks on Iran by the United States.
