The fog of war is thicker than the current hostilities between Israel and Iran, but the conflict in the short-term outcome of the regional war may obscure Israel’s ultimate outlook, as negative trends undermine militarist foreign policy. We will discuss these trends and potential outcomes.
Loss of international support
The cruel irony of a nation born from the European Jewish Holocaust has changed the world’s opinion on Israel that it is mercilessly inflicting death and destruction on the Palestinians of Gaza. The massive destruction and indiscriminate murders in Gaza are staring indelibly at Israel’s reputation. The survey effectively shows a global deterioration in support for Israel. The public’s anger has been translated into a decline in political support from the government. It has become increasingly unstable as only US security denials are spared Israel from unfavourable SC resolutions against UN votes against Israel. While the majority of Israelis continue to support the brutal destruction of Gaza, Israeli leaders are accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court.
Gaza has been destroyed – the whole world is watching
2025 Pew Survey
As international opinions oppose Israel, pressure on boycotts, sales and sanctions (BDS) will grow and continue following a scenario similar to that of the economic campaign against South Africa’s apartheid regime.
Internal political sector
While current hostilities bring together the Israelis behind the government, Israeli society is sharply divided along the lines that form its politics and national identity. The main vian factions are:
Ideology: The dominant right-wing bloc supports nationalism, settlements and judicial restrictions, while the weaker left wing supports civil liberties and two-state solutions.
Religion: Secular Jews clash with religious and ultra-Orthodox communities surrounding the role of Jewish law in military service, education and public life.
Ethnicity: Ashkenazi Jews (European) and Mizrahi Jews (Middle East/North African descent) have historically different status and voting patterns.
Jews – Arab: Arab citizens face systemic inequality and are often excluded from national identity and government debate.
Judicial Crisis: Deep polarization emerged over judicial reform, and massive protests defended democratic institutions.
Geographic: Urban centres waste liberals. The surrounding towns and settlements are more conservative and religious.
These divisions contribute to political instability, fragmented coalitions, and growing tensions over Israel’s democratic and Jewish character. Strategic consensus is eroded and public trust in leadership can be mastered that the willingness to use Israeli power is more selective, answered or politically at risk, especially among the reserves and young Israelis.
Before the attack on Iran, Netanyahu’s ruling coalition was wobbling at the edge of collapse over the issue of Orthodox religious men’s conscription. There are periodic mass demonstrations against government legislative attempts to limit Israeli judicial powers, as well as continuous, large-scale demonstrations of the fighting in Gaza. Many reserves refuse to return to their mission due to their opposition to the actions of the Gaza War. Therefore, it is likely that the turbulent moderation in Israel’s domestic politics will deteriorate in the future.
Changing the balance of military power
Military power depends on economic power. Islamic countries in the Middle East are far more abundant in natural and human resources than Israel. Regardless of political divisions and frictions between Islamic countries, this Tripiti will continue and grow for decades in the future. The abundant wealth of Israeli enemies will allow for the development of advanced weapons that can overwhelm Israel’s defenses.
Military analysts have written extensively about Israel’s excellent performance in the war against their neighbors (why Arabs lose war), and many of this advantages stem from human factors such as training, unit unit cohesion and patriotic enthusiasm. However, as weapons become more refined, the human factor decreases as a determinant of victory. The current long distances between Israel and Iran do not involve soldiers piloting or close combat. It’s a battle between attack and defense missiles and aircraft.
It is beneficial in the history of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the context of Israel and its conflict. Like the Israeli Jews, the Armenians were victims of the Holocaust, having a large diaspora and sought to restore ancient lands from their Islamic neighbours. Armenia won the war Fauci from 1988 to 1994, seizing the Nagorneau-Karabakh region from Azerbaijan, twice its population and GDP, and attracting Azerbaijan. Ten years later, in 2023, Azerbaijan defined Armenia using advanced weapons, Turkish drones and the new weapons of the recent Nagorno Karabakh. The lesson is that countries with Qualitativel military personnel can be defeated by enemies with quantitative and qualitatively superior weapons.
Iran has already demonstrated the ability of Hi-sonic missiles to penetrate the best Israeli missile defenses. In a game with a number of attacks on defensive missiles, bigger and better Arsenal wins. In the future, Israel will likely face a steadily increasing number of attack missiles in Torkie, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and again Iran. The greater wealth of enemies in Israel’s region will ultimately be converted into large weapons of smart weapons that offset Israel’s personnel benefits.
The decline of the US empire
The size and scope of the US military is no longer readily substantial by the US economy. Annual interest on US debt is now beyond the scale of the defense budget, and domestic political pressures are increasing to curb the US military commitment. Meanwhile, the US faces challenges from China’s rapidly expanding military capabilities and reaffirming Russia’s military capabilities in Ukraine. These economic and geopolitical factors will become increasingly limiting the resources available to support Israel.
Apart from economic and political constraints, internal dysfunction in the US military industrial complex has led to a steady decline in military capabilities. The US is lagging behind its rivals in the region of hypersensitivity missiles, drone warfare and naval shipbuilding. Defense projects are often underconsidered, exceeding budgets and missing schedule milestones. False incentives for defense contractors and standardized corruption in the procurement bureau have seriously undermined the US military. The failure of the US to win against Afghan rebels and the growing evidence of a failed proxy war against Russia in Ukraine indicates a decline in the US military’s ability to achieve strategic targets. These trends make us wonder how long Israel can expect adequate military support from the US
Conclusion
The United States may intervene to Israel to win the current war with Iran and intervene in order to allow Iran to accept strict restrictions on its nuclear program and military capabilities. This does not change the economic, military or political trends that work against Israel’s current political model of militarized ethnic states. As the US’s global power declines, its ability to support its forward post base in the Middle East will become Willne. This, along with increased internal political pressure, increased international economic sanctions, and increased conflicts in the region’s military regions, will lead Israel to eventually become a more enthusiastic and secular democratic state in peace with its neighbours. This outcome for Israel may be delayed for many years, but I believe it is inevitable. Israel cannot last for a long time behave like the ruthless kingdom of the Biblical era.
