CNN —
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are performing almost evenly in the race for the White House in the key Southwest battleground states of Arizona and Nevada, according to CNN’s latest poll conducted by SSRS. There is. The findings come as a large number of voters report having already cast their ballots and the percentage of voters willing to change their minds is decreasing.
According to polls, Harris has an approval rating of 48% among potential voters in Arizona, compared to 47% for Trump. In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% support Harris. These one-point differences are well within each poll’s sampling error, with no clear leader found in either state.
Surveys show that voters’ views are largely determined by who will do better on their top issues, with both candidates convincing a significant number of voters that they are the better choice on a variety of key attributes. It turned out that it wasn’t. Voters in both states have narrow, at best, opinions about which candidate cares more about people like them, shares their vision for the country, or puts the country’s interests above their own. I only have preferences.
Nevada polls suggest little change in the state’s race since late August, but in Arizona, new results show a shift in Harris’ favor. New polls show that Harris is gaining support among the Democratic Party’s core constituencies, including women, Latino voters and young people. This change is particularly concentrated among women, who now have a 16-point lead over Harris, while men still support Trump by a 14-point margin.
Harris’ relationship with women is a little strained in Nevada (51% support her, 46% support Trump). This narrow margin is largely due to the relative absence of gender disparity among the state’s likely white voters. Trump has a 15-point lead over Harris among white men (56% to 41%), and a 12-point lead among white women. (54% to 42%).
Presumable Hispanic voters in Nevada were almost evenly split between Harris and Trump (48% supported Harris, 47% supported Trump). However, Harris has a large lead among voters under 35, with 53% backing her compared to 39% backing Trump.
Independent voters in both states were almost evenly split between Harris and Trump. In Arizona, the vice president’s approval rating has improved by 6 points since August, with Trump’s approval rating at 45% and Harris’ 43%. In Nevada, independent voters were split 46% for Harris to 43% for Trump, about the same as in August.
Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate in each state appear to have an advantage. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego defeated Republican Kari Lake 51% to 43% among likely voters in the race to replace retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and in Nevada. , Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is leading in his re-election bid against Republican challenger Sam. Among likely voters, Brown is 50% to 41%.
Further down the ballot, Arizona’s vote to establish a fundamental right to abortion in the state constitution is widely supported. 60% of potential voters said they would vote in favor, while only 39% opposed.
Both states have strong early voting and mail-in voting, with polls showing 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada said they had already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans than registered Democrats have voted so far. In Arizona, this still favors Harris among banked votes (53% of those who say they have already voted support Harris, compared to Trump’s (44%), but in Nevada, those who have already voted are leaning in favor of the former president. (Trump 52%, Harris 46%).
Both candidates halted their campaigns in Arizona and Nevada in the final stages, but more than nine out of 10 likely voters in those states said they had already decided who they would support. In both states, 92% of people said they were locked up, and 8% said they could be persuaded.
Voters in Arizona and Nevada appear to be sharply divided when asked to weigh the importance of a candidate’s stances on issues against their leadership qualities and approach to the presidency, with just over half saying they weigh the importance of a candidate’s stance on issues. (53% in Nevada, 52% in Arizona), and leadership traits are a priority for just under half (47% in Nevada, 48% in Arizona).
Harris supporters in both states primarily say leadership traits are more important (55% in Nevada, 54% in Arizona), while most Trump supporters (59% in Nevada, 54% in Arizona) say leadership qualities are more important. (58%) say they prioritize candidates’ positions on the following issues: Case.
Polls in both states reveal a now-familiar divide on which issues each candidate is more trusted to handle, reflecting a largely consistent trend in national and state polls throughout the fall. has been done. Voters probably outperform Harris on immigration policy (14 points in Arizona, 15 points in Nevada), economic policy (11 points in Arizona, 9 points in Nevada), and foreign policy (8 points in Arizona, 7 points in Nevada). It seems like he trusts Trump. Point in Nevada). Harris is more trusted in both states on abortion and reproductive rights (16 points in Arizona, 21 points in Nevada) and has a 5 point lead in Arizona and a 5 point lead in protecting democracy. Voters are almost evenly split (46% trust Harris, 45% trust Trump).
In Arizona, voters appear to be split on which candidate cares more about people like them (45% for Harris, 41% for Trump). However, the vice president has the advantage of being more honest and trustworthy than Trump, 44% to 35%, and a narrower advantage of putting the country’s interests ahead of his own (Harris, 46%, Trump). Mr. 41%). The former president holds a narrow lead in bringing about the necessary changes in the country (Trump 45%, Harris 40%) and sharing voters’ vision for the country (Trump 44%, Harris 39%).
In Nevada, voters believe Ms. Harris has an advantage on integrity (44% to 36%) and caring for people like them (46% to 40%), and are confident that Mr. Trump will bring about the necessary changes. (47% vs. 41%). Opinions are almost evenly split on which candidate will put the country’s interests ahead of their own (Harris, 46%, Trump, 44%) and which candidates share their vision (44%, each). are.
Roughly one-fifth of voters in each state said neither Harris nor Trump were honest or trustworthy, a higher percentage than the percentage of voters who rejected both candidates on other issues or personal characteristics. .
Confidence in both states that votes will be cast and counted accurately has increased since late August. About 8 in 10 likely voters in Nevada (81%, up 10 points from August) and three-quarters in Arizona (76%, up 8 points) said their votes would be counted accurately. He says he has at least some confidence in it. This increase was driven more by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (up 19 points in Nevada and 12 points in Arizona) than by Democrats or Democratic voters.
Despite these increases, Republicans and Republican-leaning people in both states remain far less confident in the voting process than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. In Arizona, 69% of likely Democratic voters say they have very confidence in the system, compared to 21% of Republican voters. In Nevada, the difference is even wider: 71% of likely Democratic voters are very confident, compared to 16% of likely Republican voters.
Interviews were conducted online and by phone from October 21 to October 26, 2024, with registered voters, including 781 voters in Arizona and 683 in Nevada. Likely voters include all voters registered to vote, weighted based on their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. The results for likely Arizona voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. That’s 4.6 points among likely Nevada voters.
