BERLIN, GERMANY —
Nearly 200 countries will negotiate new climate finance targets for the Global South at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan in November.
Next month’s meeting, dubbed the Fiscal COP, is expected to focus on discussions on new collective quantitative goals (NCQGs) for climate finance. This defines new targets for financial support from historical emitters (mainly countries in the Global North) to address the climate needs of poor countries.
Rapidly increasing climate change needs
In 2009, countries including the United States and the European Union agreed to contribute a total of $100 billion each year by 2020, but an OECD report says countries have struggled to meet that goal for years. It was shown that To make matters worse, much of the climate finance is provided in the form of loans, which critics say will put further pressure on already debt-ridden developing countries.
The new negotiations come as extreme weather events have intensified due to human-induced climate change. For example, in July, three of the hottest days on record were recorded. Fossil fuel emissions have reached record highs and the planet is on track to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, exceeding the 1.5 degrees set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the scientists wrote in an article in Bioscience. ℃ far exceeded the target.
FILE – A city worker cools off next to a city fountain as temperatures soar in Bucharest, Romania, on July 11, 2024.
To combat the deepening crisis, developing countries currently need more than $100 billion a year, and it is estimated that this will reach up to $6 trillion by 2030. According to a 2021 UN report, that still does not adequately cover measures to adapt to the already inevitable climate change.
Conference organizer Azerbaijan launched the Climate Finance Action Fund in July with an initial goal of raising $1 billion from fossil fuel producing countries and companies.
Countries are likely to compromise on the lower end of the NCQG target, said Irene Monasterolo, a climate finance professor at Utrecht University.
“The outcome of these negotiations may not address the current needs for climate finance in low-income countries, which are already disproportionately affected by climate risks,” Monasterolo told VOA. Ta. “The focus so far has been primarily on mitigation.” [reducing emissions] Although projects and measures have been stepped up, investment in adaptation has lagged. ”
adaptive finance
Although adaptation finance has increased over the years, mitigation finance now makes up the bulk of climate finance, the OECD report found. Monasterolo said the size of adaptation funding ultimately depends on mitigation efforts.
“We do not see the bold mitigation plans needed to reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, including in the Global North.Instead, we are seeing some policy shift issues and major economies such as the US and Europe and polluting countries are retreating,” she added.
“The science is clear: To keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we must reduce fossil fuel production, extraction, use and related carbon activities and focus on renewable energy.” But that is not happening. In the recent geopolitical crisis, we have increased our dependence on fossil fuels.”
According to the International Energy Agency, wars in the Middle East and Russia are putting energy security at risk. Last year saw record levels of clean energy come online, but also record emissions from the energy sector.
Monasterolo said another reason for low adaptation funding is the complexity of assessing climate risks. “We need to address how to incorporate forward-looking climate risks into the models of investors and financial authorities. It’s not a good representation of what will happen.”
loss damage fund
At COP28, held in Dubai last year, countries agreed to establish a voluntary fund for historic emitters to compensate for damage caused by climate disasters in vulnerable developing countries. Western countries also asked large emitters like China to contribute. Negotiators are expected to continue discussions at COP29.
FILE – A display with water flowing over the Energy Transition Changemakers sign during the COP28 United Nations Climate Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 5, 2023.
Karolina Huli, a researcher at the Center for Climate Politics and Security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said it is currently unclear whether loss and damage funds will be included in the new NCQG.
This fund is “defined as voluntary and therefore not based on the same classification of developed and developing countries. should be negotiated separately.”
Approaching NDC
Countries are set to declare new, more ambitious national green targets by February 2025, and COP29 is expected to provide a major impetus.
“I’m worried we won’t see a sufficiently ambitious NDC.” [national determined contributions]But I think this is really important in this COP, especially [recommended] It’s about the results of last year’s Global Stocktake and a discussion about the transition away from fossil fuels,” Hari explained.
Mr Hüry said many countries would lead by example and announce targets in line with the 1.5 degree warming target. “But at the same time, countries can decide for themselves what alignment means. This makes clear how difficult it will be to reach an NDC.”
At COP28, countries signed a historic agreement to begin the transition away from polluting fossil fuels. But it remains to be seen how these steps will translate into action, Huley said. “For example, do we have a roadmap timeline for how this process will be planned at a national level?”
Pivotal US Election
Mr. Huli said the U.S. election result could have a major impact on the implementation of potential negotiations, including cooperation measures with China, the world’s largest emitter.
“I know both candidates have very different views on climate change, but I haven’t seen any detailed discussion of climate policy from either candidate. I know what happened. [Donald] “President Trump has said that the United States has cut funding for climate change,” she said.
COP29 will also see the first cooperation talks between the US and China’s new envoys, John Podesta and Liu Zhenmin. The two leaders held a working group meeting in Beijing in early September and agreed to host a summit on methane and non-carbon greenhouse gases during the climate talks.
“Although the US election may not affect cooperation at the COP this year, the outcome of the election could affect the credibility of high-level cooperation between the two countries in the long term,” Hari said. he said.
