If the future is to build all mechanical mobility, whether it’s wheels or robotic legs, automatic parts suppliers are competitive. “We believe that humanoid robots will bring a third wave of growth for automotive parts suppliers,” an analyst at Morgan Stanley said in a June 18 report. The authors include Lead’s automotive analyst Adam Jonas, industrial analyst Shen Chang and hardware technology analyst Andy Meng. The team upgraded two self-proclaimed Chinese Tesla suppliers and maintained an overweight rating for another expected expectation that companies could benefit from the advent of humanoids. This is similar to how automotive parts suppliers have been boosted from the growth of electric vehicles and then from the growth of “smart” vehicles with driver assist capabilities. Sanhua, one of the parts companies, is scheduled to list in Hong Kong on Monday, in addition to its current listing on the Shenzhen exchange in mainland China. Already, at least two automakers, Tesla and XPENG, are developing humanoid robots. Other car companies, such as Zeekr and Volkswagen, have teased how they are trying humanoids in factories. According to estimates by Morgan Stanley, auto suppliers “have a chance” to win between 47% and 60% of their spending on parts and materials. Our report states that automotive parts suppliers can account for approximately $15,000 (60%) of the production costs of each humanoid. Other humanoid components, such as screws and bearings, are not commonly used in automobiles, so machinery companies are ready to supply them, the report says. By 2050, Morgan Stanley predicts that the humanoid market will be worth $800 billion in China and $5 trillion worldwide. As it is still in the early days, analysts prefer “Tier-1” module assemblers such as Sanhua, as they “can secure assembly orders no matter which technology path is selected.” This contrasts with “Tier-2” component makers such as Lidar and Chip producers. The trio of sector selection here is Morgan Stanley’s three sector picks, all traded in mainland China: Tuopu – the company issued a price target of 63 yuan. Tuopu allows for mechanical movement of the car and creates an actuator that functions as humanoid joints and muscles. Morgan Stanley trimmed Tuop’s price target due to the softness of Tesla’s orders, but maintained his overweight rating. Analysts expect Tuopu to provide humanoid actuator models and dexterous hand models of robots. Actuator modules account for less than half of the total humanoid cost, but even if they incorporate price drops, the global addressable market for modules is likely to grow by 57% per year by 2030, Morgan Stanley predicts. “This composition of material value provides revenue growth for Sanhua and Tuop,” the analyst said. Sanhua – The company has allocated a price target of 30 yuan, reflecting 20% upside since the end of Friday. Morgan Stanley upgraded Sanhua from equal weight to overweight, and businesses rose gently with 2025 revenue and expectations stronger than expected against rising electric vehicle penetration around the world. “We estimate that by 2030E, every 10ppt of the global market share of humanoid actuator modules will generate incremental revenues in Sanhua, which is equivalent to 11% of total revenue in 2024,” analysts said. “To mitigate geopolitical risks, Sanhua has set up a factory in Thailand and plans to start production from 3Q25.” Xusheng – The company has given the stock a price target of 12 yuan. The shares closed at 12.08 yuan on Friday. Morgan Stanley has upgraded to weight equal to the expected Xusheng revenues that Xusheng’s revenues will “rebound conservatively” as startup automaker Li Auto launches more battery-only electric vehicles. However, analysts warned that Xusheng might see lower revenues than expected from Tesla and other customers. As for humanoids, Xusheng can supply casting and fuselage structural parts, analysts said. It is not yet completely clear how easy it is for automotive parts suppliers to move directly into creating humanoid parts. There are many questions about how fast and how big the human-like robot industry can become. Analysts also warned that despite the cost advantage of Chinese humanoid parts suppliers over their overseas peers, US-China tensions could force businesses to choose more expensive alternatives.
