Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, will leave the U.S. Capitol on February 13, 2025 after meeting with Republicans from the Senate Bank, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the issue of withdrawal.
Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. |Getty Images
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said on Monday that markets and central bankers are underestimating the risks created by record US deficits, tariffs and international tensions.
Dimon, a veteran CEO and chairman of the largest US bank by assets, explained his worldview at the bank’s annual investors’ day meeting in New York. He said he believes the stock market value, which revived from low in April, does not adequately represent the risk of higher inflation and stagflation.
“We have a big deficit. There are things I consider to be a central bank that I’m mostly happy with,” Dimon said. “I think you all can manage this all. I don’t think so,” he said.
“My own view is that people feel pretty good because you don’t see effective tariffs,” Dimon said. “The market has dropped by 10%. [it’s] Back up 10%. It’s an extraordinary amount of self-satisfaction. ”
Dimon’s comments follow Moody’s rating agency, downgrading its US credit rating on Friday over concerns about an increased government debt burden. Markets have been whipped over the past few months over concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade policy will raise inflation and slow the world’s biggest economy.
Dimon said Monday that he believes the estimates of Wall Street revenues for S&P 500 companies, which have already fallen in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policy, will drop even further as guidance is drawn amid uncertainty or lower it.
Over the course of six months, those forecasts will decline in return by 0% after starting the year at around 12%, Dimon said. If that happens, the stock will likely fall.
“I think the revenue estimates will go down, meaning PE will go down,” Dimon said, referring to the “price to revenue” ratio that stock market analysts have closely tracked.
The odds of stagflation “is essentially a recession with inflation,” Dimon added, which is almost double what the market thinks.
Separately, one of Dimon’s top lawmakers said that corporate clients are still in “waiting” mode when it comes to acquisitions and other transactions.
Troy Rohrbaugh, co-head of the company’s commercial and investment banks, said investment bank revenues were “mid-term” declines compared to the previous year, with trading revenues rising at a single-digit percentage of “medium-quarter” in the second quarter.
On the ever-present question on Dimon’s timeline, when he handed over the CEO reins to one of his agents, Dimon said nothing had changed since last year’s guidance.
“If I’m here for another four years, and maybe two more,” Dimon said, “it’s a long time.”
Of all the executive presentations given on Monday, consumer bank chief Marianne Lake spoke the longest in an hour. She is considered a potential top successor, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepsack said he would not seek top job.
