TORONTO – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday that Canada plans to cut the number of immigrants it admits, betting big on immigration to boost economic prosperity and a country long known for being tolerant of newcomers. It was a sudden reversal for the country.
The turn comes amid concerns that polls show immigrants are exacerbating long-standing housing shortages, driving up rents and deepening stress on an already overburdened health care system. This comes amid signs that support is declining.
Since being elected in 2015, Prime Minister Trudeau has planned to steadily increase immigration levels. Canada has set a record goal for 2022, in part to ease labor shortages caused by the pandemic. “Canada needs more people,” said then-Immigration Minister Sean Fraser.
This approach stands out in the United States, where Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has pledged mass deportations and blames immigrants for crime and disorder, and in Europe, where anti-immigrant sentiment is driving far-right parties to victory. It is something that sets it apart.
Now, Prime Minister Trudeau is rolling up his welcome mat and admitting his policies have failed.
Canada plans to admit 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025, a 21 per cent decrease from the 500,000 target set last year. That number is expected to fall further to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, both below this year’s target of 485,000.
Officials also introduced temporary residents such as international students and foreign workers to be eligible for the first time in the country. That number is projected to decline by nearly 450,000 in 2025 and 2026. In 2023, approximately 800,000 people held their positions here.
The changes come after several years in which Canada experienced record population growth, thanks largely to immigration, with Canada growing at a faster pace than countries with high birth rates such as the Group of Seven (G7) countries and India. , meaning the population is projected to decline by 0.2%. .
“Our immigration system has always been responsible and it has always been flexible,” Trudeau said at a news conference in Ottawa. But in trying to meet workforce needs and sustain population growth, “the balance was not quite right.”
Reactions to this reversal have varied.
Robert Kavcic, head of economics at the Bank of Montreal, said in a note Thursday that the new immigration plan will “relieve stress on an economy and infrastructure that have been nearly debilitated in recent years,” citing the housing sector in particular.
But more than 100 civil society groups, including some of Canada’s largest labor unions, criticized the U-turn.
“This government was elected on a pro-immigration platform and was committed to providing permanent residency to immigrant workers, students, and undocumented immigrants,” they said in the letter. “People across Canada expect these promises to be kept. Failure to deliver on them will be remembered at the ballot box.”
Immigration has long enjoyed strong public support here and is seen as important to offset the economic impact of declining birth rates and an aging workforce. That consensus, built over generations, extends across the political spectrum.
But there are signs that the Canadian consensus is at risk. Last week, an Environmental Research Institute poll found that almost 60 per cent of Canadians agree there are “too many immigrants.” This is the highest rate in a quarter of a century and the fastest change in two years since we started asking the question in 1977. .
“The latest findings suggest that the balance of public opinion regarding the amount of immigrants currently allowed into the country has effectively flipped from acceptable (if unworthy) to problematic. ,” the pollster said.
The poll found that more than two-thirds of Canadians agree that immigration has a positive impact on the economy. The biggest reason they cite for having too many immigrants is the impact on housing prices.
The change in opinion poses further difficulties for Trudeau, whose Liberals have trailed the Conservatives by double digits in public opinion polls, in part due to housing issues. At Wednesday’s caucus, some Liberal MPs called on him to resign. He says he plans to stay.
Canada’s population will grow by more than 1.2 million people in 2023, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year to more than 40 million people, the highest annual growth rate since 1957. About 98% of that is due to immigration.
In contrast, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the U.S. population will grow by about 1.7 million people in 2023, to more than 335 million people (0.5%). Part of the reason is increased immigration, officials said.
Most of Canada’s population growth has come from a large influx of temporary immigrants, including international students. Universities are trying to recruit them because they pay higher tuition fees than domestic students.
Canada has more than 3 million temporary residents, representing approximately 7.2% of the country’s population. In 2022, they accounted for about 4%.
Critics, including some economists here, argue that Canada admitted too many immigrants too quickly without ensuring the infrastructure to house them, resulting in a lack of control over a system that had long been the pride of the nation. He complains that he has failed.
“It’s easy to blame everything on immigrants,” Canadian Immigration Minister Mark Miller said at a press conference Thursday. “It is also undeniable that the amount of immigration contributes to affordability. [challenges]but there are some nuances. ”
In December, Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravell said in a speech at the Windsor-Essex Chamber of Commerce that immigration has helped ease the labor shortage.
He added that housing supply has not kept pace with Canada’s demographics, but that’s also due to “structural challenges” such as zoning restrictions, permitting procedures and construction labor shortages. (Some cases are under the jurisdiction of prefectures and local governments.)
As the backlash grew, the government began introducing measures to curb immigration.
He froze the number of permanent residents he was planning to accept, announced temporary restrictions on international student visas and promised to reduce the proportion of temporary residents in the population to 5% over three years.
Then came Thursday’s cut.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce praised the government’s efforts to “strengthen and secure” the country’s immigration system, but for businesses that have “had to deal with sudden and ongoing changes” to immigration policy. He said such efforts would be “unfortunate”.
“Immigration is a key driver of economic growth and the only source of workforce growth in the near future,” Diana Palmerin Velasco, senior director of the chamber, said in a statement. “Canada’s future depends on getting immigration right. We can do better.”
