CNN —
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken departed for Israel and other unspecified countries in the Middle East on Monday, as the US seeks to advance conflict resolution efforts following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
U.S. officials, led by President Joe Biden, have high hopes that diplomacy will ultimately prevail (they say there are few other options) and in dialogue with regional allies. It has sought to generate momentum for pushing for a new ceasefire that could lead to the release of hostages. , even if it has smaller ambitions than the three-phase proposal once on the table.
But days after Mr. Sinwar was killed by Israeli forces in southern Gaza, the fundamentals of the stalled negotiations remain the same.
There appears to be little clarity about who will take over the armed forces, making it difficult to assess the likelihood of a new deal. Hamas has no intention of changing its attitude towards hostages and ceasefire negotiations.
“Their domestic dynamics will take some time,” a regional diplomatic official told CNN. What appears to be clear is that Hamas is unfazed by the ceasefire and hostage negotiations, and is only considering returning to the three-phase agreement that had been under discussion for months before Mr. Sinwar’s death. , the official said.
U.S. officials expect to learn more about who will take over the reins from Mr. Sinwar within the next week, given Mr. Blinken’s involvement in the region.
Meanwhile, Israel has continued its relentless military campaign in northern Gaza in the days since Sinwar’s killing, and shows no signs of slowing down on its northern Lebanese front. Uncertainty about Israel’s response to Iran’s response to Tehran’s missile attack earlier this month remains in the air, raising the possibility of a regional conflagration.
Biden said in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week that it was time to “move on” from the Gaza war. But there has been little evidence over the past year that Netanyahu has taken Biden’s advice, and the Israeli prime minister vowed after Sinwar’s death that the war was “not over.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in brief comments to Israeli media on Saturday that Israel “will continue to press forward to the end.” Asked if anything might deter him, Netanyahu said: Continue until victory. ”
The comment appeared to run counter to the Biden administration, which began pushing the concept of a tipping point in combat soon after Sinwar’s killing.
“We think there is a possibility of working towards a ceasefire in Lebanon. It will be more difficult in Gaza, but we agree that there must be consequences for what happens the next day.” Biden told reporters last weekend.
Diplomats and allies are skeptical
Even though Biden and his entire national security team have publicly expressed optimism about ending the war in Gaza since Sinwar’s death, U.S. diplomats and regional allies have Deep down, I’m skeptical. Some wonder whether the lesson for Israel from Mr. Sinwar’s death is that U.S. calls for detente over the past few months were premature.
They wonder how the Biden administration will rally support for the postwar plan it has been working on for much of last year, especially as the U.S. election is two weeks away and questions swirl about who will support it. I’m not exactly sure if that’s what I mean. Baton to Shinwar.
Blinken is scheduled to discuss plans for the Gaza Strip the next day while in Israel. A State Department official said those talks have entered a new phase in recent weeks, with specific details being discussed, but a major hurdle remains: What should post-conflict governance of Gaza look like? There is no agreement among Arab countries on whether to do so, the official said. , according to a pool report.
Some officials said there was no immediate ceasefire and new plans could emerge to suspend fighting in exchange for a pause to free the hostages. Such a plan would also require renewed talks towards a more permanent cessation of hostilities.
The White House on Monday struck a sober tone about the state of diplomatic outcomes in Gaza and Lebanon, acknowledging that ceasefire talks are “nowhere near restarting.”
“We can’t sit here today and say we’re going to restart negotiations on this in Doha or Cairo or anywhere else,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
Questions remain about the impact of Mr. Sinwar’s death on both efforts to bring home hostages held by Hamas and efforts to end broader regional tensions.
Negotiations all but broke down just a few weeks ago, and U.S. officials have downplayed the possibility of an early restart, in part because they are not sure when they will resume and who will decide Hamas’s final decision. It is unclear who will be the decision maker.
Diplomatic sources in the region said it was a “safe bet” that Mr Sinwar’s brother Mohammed could lead the effort to rescue hostages in the Gaza Strip. Mohammed Sinwar’s name “continues to surface” but officials warned that it had not yet been confirmed. Yahya Sinwar’s brother is a close friend and “has a network and contacts in Gaza to discuss the hostage situation.”
Muhammad Sinwar, a hard-liner like his brother, is believed to be the main developer of Gaza’s terrifying network of tunnels, where hostages are believed to be held. In September, a senior Israeli official told CNN that Mohamed Sinwar had become Hamas’ military commander after its pre-war leader Mohamed Deif was killed in an Israeli airstrike in July.
After Yahya Sinwar’s murder, a U.S. official warned CNN last week that Mohamed Sinwar’s elevation could mean “negotiations are completely stalled.”
To lead the overall organization, Doha-based Hamas’ top negotiator Khalil al-Haya has the support of pro-Iranian and pro-Gaza factions, regional officials said. However, it is also possible that other forces outside Hamas will push for someone else.
Yahya Sinwar was named overall leader after former chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in an assassination believed to have been carried out by Israel. It meant that Israel was killing and hunting the very Hamas figures involved in halting ceasefire negotiations.
Meanwhile, Hamas is under pressure from Qatar and Egypt to resume ceasefire negotiations, but mediators have told them “point-blank” that Hamas is not considering changes to the three-phase plan recently announced by the Biden administration. It is being It was approved by the United Nations Security Council in May.
Blinken is scheduled to meet with senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Tuesday, amid dampening hopes that he will return to Washington if there is significant progress in hostage negotiations.
Rather, when he arrived in Tel Aviv, U.S. officials believed that the most important place for him to move forward was the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, according to a senior U.S. official. The Biden administration sent a letter to the Israeli government last week demanding that it take action to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating U.S. law governing foreign military aid. He suggested that US military aid could be in jeopardy.
Historically, Israel has shown itself to be more likely to make progress on humanitarian issues after pressure and direct talks from Biden, and they hope to do so with this week’s trip, officials said. Ta.
Despite the long outlook, some U.S. officials remain hopeful that an end to the Gaza conflict is possible, especially given Netanyahu’s desire to reach an agreement to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. said the senior official. U.S. officials are adamant that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would not agree to such a deal without an end to the war and a path to Palestinian statehood.
But in a sign of shifting global loyalties, a number of regional leaders are scheduled to travel to Russia during Blinken’s visit this week to attend a summit of BRICS countries hosted by President Vladimir Putin. An unstable world.
