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[This Iran war update launched before complete as too often happens. Please return or refresh this page at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
We had wondered if and when Trump or Mohammed bin Salman would chew off a leg to get out of the traps they have gotten themselves in by launching epically stupid and self/global economy destructive conflicts. Trump has just managed to chew off the wrong leg.
We’ll turn soon to the war proper, but things continue to be comparatively quiet on the kinetic front due to Trump’s upcoming summit with President Xi on Thurday, as the Press TV landing page indirectly confirms:
The Aljazeera landing page similarly shows that messaging for the moment taking pride of place over military action:
Trump has chewed off a limb, but not one in the Iran war trap. His ban of CNN, Politico and MS Now from the White House press pool led to all press pool member networks uniting to stand up for free speech and refuse to provide White House coverage. This is a bigger blow to the things most important to Trump, his grandiosity and narcissism, than it might seem. Trump regularly hauls the press team for televised impromptu chats with political and business leaders, often where Trump engages in successful shows of dominance with them. He loves pontificating from the door of Air Force One, standing a bit above the cameras.
Contrast that with the latest clips:
Talk about backfire.
Here’s Trump‘s event right now at the White House. Newsmax is covering it, but they can’t hear what he’s saying because the entire press Pool boycotted him for banning CNN, politico and MSnow.
Trump is silenced by the very people he tried to silence.…
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) September 21, 2026
Trump has just cut himself off from his most effective means of communicating intensively with Americans before the midterms. Republicans must be secretly relieved.
And what about the summit with Chinese president Xi on Thursday? Xi would not subject himself to an informal, unscripted chit chat in armchairs. But Trump almost certainly had some official theater planned at the White House. Xi’s team no doubt has that on their official agenda. So will that drive a Trump climb-down? And if not, that would seem to suggest that Trump will not retreat, undermining his ability to control the much-vaunted narrative. See this fresh example:
Admittedly, the courts that Trump loves to hate may bail him out. The banned networks sued the White House on First Amendment grounds. This would seem to be a clear cut case and Trump is already whinging over the judge assigned to hear it. The fact that Trump is hopeless oppositional also pretty much rules out a Xi-related climbdown. One imagines Trump believes he better preserves his macho that way.
However, even before Trump’s latest show of pique, his repeated reversals on a threatened weekend strike (made evident by the movement of refuelers and other aircraft) is the thrashing about of a cornered animal. Trump simply cannot stand the appearance of not being in control. Even though this story was well-reported yesterday, it shows Trump having flip-flopped at a speed that would give most whiplash. From the New York Times in Trump Gets Caught in a Dilemma Over a Saudi Plea for Military Help:
For two weeks, the question of whether to yield to pleas from Saudi Arabia and order the U.S. military to strike targets in Yemen controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis has bedeviled President Trump…
The president had wavered for weeks over the Saudi appeals for help in fighting the Houthis, who took advantage of the instability in the Middle East and reignited their war with the kingdom this summer.
But things came to a head on Thursday: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader and a major ally in the Iran war, called the president to implore him, again, to step in to help blunt the rapidly advancing group, administration officials said.
Mr. Trump had met with advisers just the day before and told them he did not favor strikes. But after speaking with the Saudi crown prince, he reversed himself and told the Pentagon to prepare for airstrikes against the Houthis.
But by midday Sunday, the president appeared to have reversed himself again. There would be no U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis — at least not for the time being, according to administration officials. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss military planning….
Most of the president’s inner circle was either deeply skeptical or outright opposed to joining the Saudi fight against the Houthis, especially given the existing strains facing the U.S. military in the war with Iran, according to a senior administration official.
Mr. Trump’s decision to pull back from, or at least delay, striking Houthi targets came as commanders had approved target lists, troops were loading bombs onto U.S. warplanes selected for the missions and the wave of attacks was just about to begin, according to two people briefed on the operation….
The gyrations reflect the quandary in which the president now finds himself: He is correct when he says that the Houthis have steered clear of attacking U.S. ships. But they have gone after Saudi Arabia, creating a dilemma for Mr. Trump.
Some U.S. military officials have argued that the United States needs the kingdom’s help with the war in Iran, and Saudi officials have shown they are willing to exercise what leverage they have in the absence of U.S. cooperation. For instance, in May, Saudi Arabia effectively halted the Trump administration’s plan to use the U.S. military to escort commercial oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz by refusing the United States use of its airspace and American air bases in the country.
In other words, part of the equation is that Trump thinks MBS did the US a dirty by refusing to let the US use Saudi airspace to execute the short-lived Project Freedom in early May
Nevertheless, even allowing for the fact that Trump is not of sound mind, this really is….something. Trump has the regular pattern of going TACO, but this pullback is even closer to the edge of action than past ones.1 Many YouTubers from military backgrounds have stress that these last minute stand-downs are costly and blunt combat readiness.
It is interesting that PressTV did not dignify the latest US measure against Iran, that of using sanctions to stop the cross-border operations of Iran’s air carriers. Note that this action does not stop non-Iran airlines from flying to and from Iran. This measure is to take effect on Wednesday, so we will see soon what transpires.
Bessent on Iran:
On September 23, all Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world.
How do we do that? If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar… pic.twitter.com/pX5wfEobV3
— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 21, 2026
Some countries have made clear they will comply:
⚡️BREAKING: Scott Bessent says he will Shut Down all Iranian Airlines Across the Globe starting September 23
“Airports that provide services to Iranian airlines will be cut off from the Dollar System”
Turkey has so far announced that it won’t Accept Iranian Airlines anymore pic.twitter.com/y6c9HJHb97
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) September 21, 2026
However, Bessent’s action, taking effect on the eve of the visit by Iran President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi to the UN, would seem to make it impossible to return, at least as planned. Their Iranian plane would need to be refueled in the US. Except as we find out below, the Iran officials are actually flying out of Qatar. So the interference may be only on the last leg back, from Qatar back to Iran.
This is HILARIOUS
Trump is required by the UN to allow Iran to speak at the UN General Assembly.
We issued visas so the Iranian President can speak at the UN General assembly, then took away Iran’s ability to fly to NYC.
Scott Bessent announced that starting Weds, any country…
— Matt Tardio (@angertab) September 21, 2026
More on this and related issues from former JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre, in a talk with Brandon Weichert.
Apropos the headline, resilc notes: “Trump will shut every airline everywhere down with no jet fuel.”
Keep in mind that Eyre holds some hostile views toward Iran, such as depicting them as authoritarian and unconcerned with public welfare. By contrast, former ambassador Chas Freeman maintains they are a directed democracy like the US, where some topics are outside the pale of political consideration. From a lightly-edited machine transcript:
Weichert: Scott Bessant now is trying to collapse the Iranian air industry. What effect is that going to have?
Eyre: Oh, bad. I mean again there was never any doubt it could cause pain. There’s some Iranian analysts or analysts of Iran more accurately who point out that a lot of pharmaceuticals that go into Iran or are brought in by plane. So that will have significant effects on among other things people who need medicines from abroad.
Again there are international laws that say you can’t have collective punishment. which is what this is. So, not that anyone cares about war crimes or anything like that, but it will have an effect. I mean, for example, the foreign minister of Iran had to fly to Qatar to take a plane, but that wasn’t because of Scott Besson’s sanctions. It’s because we blew up all of the Iranian long-distance planes in the early days of the war.
So, I’ll tell you one thing. I’ll tell you the effect it won’t have.
Weichret: Go ahead.
Eyre: It won’t cause the Iranian elites who are running the country to say, “Okay, time to cave into American demands.”
Weichert: Quite the contrary, won’t it? Will probably have the opposite effect, won’t it?
Eyre: Yeah. I mean, it’s escalation and escalation in the face of eventual Iranian counter escalation. So,
Weichert: and yet the president clearly is at least somewhat cognizant.
Eyre: Stop right stop right there. that that’s already wrong… Do you know what Brownian motion is in physics?
Weichert: Why don’t you tell us?
Eyre: Brownian motion, like you take particles in a in a suspended liquid just the random movements back and forth of the individual particles is called Brownian motion. It’s not going from A to B. It’s just random motion.
So, without being too flippant, I think President Trump’s Hamlet-like soliloquies about bomb or not to bomb are just sort of strategic Brownian motion. This administration doesn’t know what it wants. As a result, it doesn’t know well, it knows in a macro sense. It wants us all to go away, but it has no strategic objective. And so it has no it has no no plan to get there. So, you know, he didn’t bomb. That’s good. I’m glad….But this is not a chess move or even a move.
Weichert: No. No. But I was just wondering if maybe he did finally have the “Oh my god, what did I do” moment? No,, that moment will never happen. All kidding aside, the man is 80 years old. He’s not gonna have a late life revelation that he’s been doing it wrong.
On the energy front, there’s been active debate over claims that oil and LPG transits on the Oman side are inconsistent with Iran claims of the Strait of Hormuz being under its control. Mind you, everyone with an operating brain cell understands that the levels the US claims are exaggerated. However, some respected outlets (as in seen as having cred by oil industry pros) have said the level has risen in the last month and could be as high as the old normal. Mind you, this is still not viable over the long haul; you will starve just as completely on 60% of the calories you need to survive as on 25%. It will just take longer.
Forgive me for not running down the particular YouTube talk on which this occurred (IIRC it was either with Daniel Davis or Nima) but Professor Marandi did concede Iran was letting ships pass on the Oman side. He said some was Iran oil being sent out of Iraq and therefore seen by the US as Iraqi oil. But some was also being let out to keep the global economy from collapsing and so as not to crush Gulf state economies.
I am coming around to the view that Tehran is taking Arab money to quietly permit transits.
Emirati oil exports this month are running at 3.6 mbd, higher than the 2025 average of 3.4 mbd. Total exports are close to 6.5 mbd.
It is hard to believe that this is happening in…
— Policy Tensor (@policytensor) September 22, 2026
On top of the 7 VLCC that Saudi Arabia was loading on Sunday inside the Persian Gulf (see below), the kingdom was also loading 1 VLCC at Yanbu in the Red Sea. https://t.co/EZ8UGpgxap
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 21, 2026
In keeping, the Saudis may not be in quite as dire shape export-wise as widely assumed right now.
And from Bloomberg in Saudis Tell Asian Refiners They Can Soon Pick Up Oil From Yanbu:
Several Asian refiners have been told informally by Saudi Aramco they will soon be able to pick up oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, according to traders familiar with the matter.
At least three fuel processors have been given informal assurances about the loadings from executives at the state-run company, rather than official notices, the traders said, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to media. No timelines were given, they said.
But there is no sign MBS is reversing course, and thus no reason to think Ansar Allah will not continue to press its advantage. In fact, Saudi attacks continueL
⭕️ Yemen’s AnsarAllah: “In a major escalation, the criminal Saudi enemy targeted the provinces of Al-Jawf, Taiz, Saada, and Marib with 157 airstrikes and rocket/artillery strikes, carried out by its F-15 and Typhoon Fighter Jets that took off from the Khamis Mushait and Taif… https://t.co/XMbzFqzKXt pic.twitter.com/oU8h1gZJ7A
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 21, 2026
Ansar Allah is messaging that Saudi Arabia itself is on the menu, and they intend to be better minders of sacred sites than the Kingdom has been:
HOUTHI LEADER: “MECCA AND THE KAABA ARE UNDER SAUDI OCCUPATION”
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi described Mecca and the Kaaba as Islamic holy sites belonging to all Muslims, not a “Saudi emirate.”
He also claimed the Houthis are more loyal to the holy sites than what he…
— Subodh Kumar (@kumarsubodh_) September 22, 2026
And:
Alastair Crooke (@AWCrooke): Saudi Arabia is a pillar for one family. If it is no longer oil wealth for Wall Street and the petrodollar, there is nothing there. MBS had Trump as his security. That is gone. The reserves went into NEOM. He cannot deal with Ansar Allah because… pic.twitter.com/OK45Pjtu6k
— 🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉 (@apocalypseos) September 21, 2026
And some tidbits.
Expect to hear a lot more on this if Tyson’s take pans out:
The missile used by IRGC ‘over’ the USN carrier was likely Electro Magnetic Pulse to take out radars, targeting, computing, sophisticated electronics without impairing the physical structure to risk sinking the vessel.
Iranians have led EMP research since the 1960s. https://t.co/SIQhkGlOhE
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) September 22, 2026
From Aljazeera’s live feed, more of a poke in the eye than a surprise:
IRGC says Iran will reverse-engineer seized US underwater drone
Brigadier-General Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for the IRGC, says Iran will begin reverse-engineering a US submarine drone recently captured by naval forces.
Quoted by state media, Mohebbi said the unmanned sea vehicle is among other military hardware seized during the nearly seven-month war launched by the United States and Israel.
“This advanced technology exists in the underwater vessel that fell into the hands of the IRGC Navy forces, and its reverse-engineering will begin,” he said.
“The war demonstrated that the most advanced US technologies used in the military and defence industries have come under Iran’s control.”
The vessel – a Dive-LD autonomous underwater vehicle designed for long-range surveillance and other undersea missions – is among a new generation of military drones intended to operate for days with little human intervention.
___
1 One of many tweets along these lines:
NEW | There are multiple indications that fighting between the US and Iran & its partners may expand imminently.
A CNN analyst reported that Trump deliberated and reviewed strike options against the Houthis in a meeting at Camp David yesterday. Trump notably returned to… pic.twitter.com/iZV2K2BsoZ
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) September 20, 2026
