A ship off the coast of Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the Emirate of Sharjah’s main container ports, on June 28, 2026, along the Gulf of Oman.
– | AFP | Getty Images
President Donald Trump said the cease-fire with Iran is “over” following the U.S. offensive against the Islamic Republic in the wake of an attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, traders at predictive market platform Kalsi are recalibrating their outlook on when aisle traffic will return to normal.
Speculators currently believe there is only a 44% chance that traffic will return to normal by December 1st. The earliest date to expect normal traffic is January 1, 2027, and the probability has increased to 53%.
Kalsi defines typical traffic as a seven-day rolling average of more than 60 trans-strait transit calls. Results are validated using data reported from IMF PortWatch.
The odds of when traffic will return to normal have fallen sharply in recent days. As recently as July 4, Kalsi traders were giving a more than 50% chance that flows would return to normal by October 1.
Polymarket traders are slightly more optimistic, with speculators pegging a 59% chance that traffic on the vital sea route will return to normal by Dec. 31. Polymarket uses the same definitions and data as Karshi to settle contracts related to Strait of Hormuz traffic.
Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stewart wrote in a note Wednesday that traffic conditions in the Straits have “suddenly moved far from normal.”
“With the Straits back in operation, global oil supplies are once again in significant short supply,” Stuart wrote. “Hopes that private insurers will lower their ‘war risk’ ratings within months have been dashed.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
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