The modeled pathways, so-called projections, for the deployment of carbon capture and storage are taken from the text and tables of the International Energy Agency’s Energy Technology Outlook and World Energy Outlook reports, as well as from correspondence with the IEA. Forecasts for 2008 and 2010 are based on IEA Blue Map scenarios. The second 2010 projection is from a net-zero by 2050 scenario. 2018 is according to the sustainable development scenario. 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 due to announced commitments, stated policies and net zero scenarios by 2050. Some of these scenarios represent pathways designed to achieve specific temperatures or CO2 concentrations. Other scenarios represent what is possible based on current policies or commitments. Pathways for years for which underlying data were not provided in the IEA report were excluded.
In response to emailed questions, an IEA spokesperson said: “The IEA’s long-term models and scenarios are not designed to predict future developments in technology. The various scenarios we develop are intended to explore the potential impacts and trade-offs of different policy, technology and investment choices.” The agency said solar power’s success was due in part to successful policy support for solar power, particularly in China, and that CCS lagged behind because of a lack of similar support. CCS will continue to be part of its portfolio of solutions for industries that are difficult to decarbonize, it added. A record number of CCS projects are under construction, the spokesperson said.
Actual CCS capacity data is obtained from the IEA’s CCUS project database. We defined large-scale projects as those with an estimated capacity to store at least 500,000 tons of CO2 per year. This data consists only of completed projects that permanently store CO2, not projects that utilize CO2 for enhanced oil and gas recovery or other uses. These applications either have the potential to produce more carbon than they store or have less monitoring requirements.
Of the 12 completed CCS injection projects, 11 remain in operation and one has been decommissioned. The annual total of carbon stored assumes that the project has been operating at its stated capacity every year since launch, which few people actually do. Comparisons with the amount of CO2 emitted by a single large power plant are based on data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Solar power forecasts are from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook report. Data shown is from announced commitments, current policies, new policies, net zero by 2050, reference, sustainable development, and stated policy scenarios. To reduce graph clutter, data was limited to projections from biennial IEA reports.
Data on the actual deployment of solar energy was taken from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives reports.
The data comparing carbon storage and solar energy projections and deployments was originally compiled by researchers Rory French and Lindsey Gulden.
The target figure of 6 billion tonnes was derived from the 2024 paper “The Feasibility of Reaching Gigatonnes of CO2 Storage by Mid-Century”. This reflects the median underground carbon storage among scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report scenario database that have at least a 67% chance of limiting warming to 2°C.
The IPCC said it does not develop or run the models that create the scenarios in its database, and noted that the assessment report contains information that contextualizes and challenges the model’s assumptions regarding the deployment of solar PV and CCS.
The estimate of the 768,000 square miles of land needed to grow biomass comes from the Technical Summary of the Sixth Assessment Report, which states that approximately 199 million hectares of farmland will be needed in 2050 to limit warming to below 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot.
The estimated 68,000 miles of pipeline is based on the 2021 Net-Zero America report.
To calculate the number of large-scale CCS reservoirs needed to reach the 6 billion tonne target, we assumed that this project would deposit the same amount as the largest carbon storage project, the Gorgon carbon dioxide injection project in Australia, which injected 2.7 million tonne in 2019. The figures are taken from the London Underground CO2 Storage Register 2025 Annual Report, produced by Imperial College London.
To calculate the total annual cost of CCS projects through 2050, multiply the $85 per tonne subsidy the US is providing to industry in Q45 tax credits by 6 billion tons.
China’s military budget for 2025 comes from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The United Nations humanitarian and development assistance budget for 2024 is based on the United Nations Committee of Chief Coordinating Officers’ Expenses Fact Sheet.
