State Representative Claire Valdez (from left), former New York City Comptroller and New York Democratic House candidate Brad Lander, New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani, and New York Democratic House candidate Dalializa Avila Chevalier during the “Get Out The Vote” rally ahead of the primary election at the King’s Theater in Brooklyn, New York. Thursday, June 18, 2026.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
On Tuesday night, New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani faces his first major electoral test since his election in November 2025. Although Mamdani is not on the ballot this time, his power to sway voters is there.
Mamdani is endorsing three candidates in New York City’s competitive Congressional primaries. They are former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander for New York City’s 10th District, New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez for NY-7 District, and first-time candidate Daria Lisa Avila Chevalier for NY-13 District.
Traders at prediction market platform Kalsi predict the mayor will make a 2-3 prediction.
Speculators put a 54% chance that Valdez and Lander will win and Chevalier will lose. There is also a 28% chance that all three candidates will win, and a 20% chance that Lander alone will win.
These odds are based on individual combo contracts, and all three events of an individual candidate’s win or loss must occur for the trade to resolve “yes”. Combo contract results will be verified by the New York State Board of Elections.
Odds and gambling platforms are not replacements for political polls, as they do not use the techniques used in traditional political polls.
Lander, an ally of Mamdani, is challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman. Mr. Goldman has come under fire from critics on the left for supporting Israel in areas including downtown Manhattan and Park Slope, Brooklyn.
In a contract asking whether a candidate will win the Democratic nomination in NY-10, Carsi traders are giving Lander a near-certain chance to win the Democratic nomination in the district. The results of individual candidate contracts will be confirmed by the Democratic Party.
Valdez is seeking to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Nydia Velasquez in NY-7, which includes Williamsburg, Brooklyn, and Long Island City, Queens, but Velasquez is backing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Reynoso is backed by the progressive Working Families Party, and Valdez is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Carsi traders believe Valdez has the advantage. They give her a nearly 80% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Finally, Mr. Chevalier, also backed by the Democratic Socialist Party of America, is calling for the ouster of incumbent Congressman Adriano Espaira, chairman of the Hispanic Congressional Caucus. NY-13 covers Harlem and Washington Heights in Manhattan and parts of the Bronx. Carsi traders believe there is a two-thirds chance that Espaillat will fend off Chevalier’s challenge.
Meanwhile, there is another controversial primary in NY-12, targeting Midtown and Manhattan’s Upper East and West Sides. Mr. Mamdani did not endorse any candidate in the election.
Rival artificial intelligence super PACs are trying to boost and curtail the candidacy of New York state Rep. Alex Boaz, an ardent supporter of AI regulation. OpenAI-backed Leading the Future spent $8 million opposing Boas, and Anthropic-backed Public First Action spent $11 million supporting him.
However, Kalsi traders believe fellow state Rep. Micah Lasher has a 74% chance of winning the Democratic nomination in NY-12.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
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