NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said existing home sales and median home prices should increase 4% by the end of 2026 despite market headwinds.
After a disappointing first half of 2026, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, believes the year could end on a much better note.
Lawrence Yun
NAR’s latest forecast includes a 4% year-over-year increase in existing home sales and an expectation that median home prices will remain at the same rate. Mortgage interest rates remain in the 6% range, with the annual average expected to reach 6.5% by the end of 2026.
Yun said the market continues to be profitable, with the typical homeowner expected to see an increase in equity of $16,000 this year.
“Homeowners will continue to build wealth while renters are just sitting idle,” he told the association’s Housing Economic Issues and Trends Forum on Tuesday.
Despite the headwinds, Yun and NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research Dr. Jessica Lautz advised homebuyers not to sit on the sidelines. The pair noted that home ownership costs are expected to rise significantly in the coming decades and could reach $1 million by 2051, an increase of 132.56 percent.
Jessica Lautz
“As I’ve been around the country this year, I keep hearing that the market is really volatile,” Lautz said at the forum. “When you put a home on the market, it can sit for months, and you can get multiple offers, sometimes right next to each other.”
The vice president of research said real estate agents still have a good chance of succeeding in this sales environment if they leverage data to identify underserved and overlooked demographics.
“We constantly talk about first-time homebuyers. What about first-time sellers?” He pointed to the growing number of young baby boomers (17%) looking to upsize or downsize.
Regarding connecting with homebuyers, Lautz reminded the audience to fight against “misinformation” that prevents households from making the jump from renters to homeowners.
“The typical down payment for first-time home buyers was only 10 percent last year,” she said, noting the importance of busting the myth that you need a 20 percent down payment to buy a home.
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