[Today’s Iran war update launched before complete because Things To Do. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
This post is likely to be a bit skeletal given the givens, so please bear with me. But it also includes some hopefully useful informational hygiene.
What little happens in the way of actual reporting on this war is already deflating the latest episode of Trump “Deal coming soon!” hype.
Even though we included it yesterday, we were skeptical of a report from the generally excellent DropSite, that Iranian sources said that Iran offered to have Russia or China hold its enriched uranium when Iran has tartly rejected that before. This is a matter of sovereignity, which as Robert Pape has stressed, is a zero sum game. Pape has also stressed that it is dangerous for Iran to concede on any important issues, since that would grease the path for the US and Israel chipping away at Iran. Other experts have said that the US not only needs to be defeated but seen as defeated so it won’t try to come back and attack Iran for a very long time.
Notice how this Bloomberg headline puts the happiest face possible on the increasingly visible gap between the two sides:
From the text:
Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough.
Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submitted by the US, which “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Thursday, without saying where it got the information. “Further narrowing requires an end to the temptation for war on Washington’s part.”
While that signaled progress, a Reuters report that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad initially sent oil prices higher. Then President Donald Trump said he opposed efforts by Iran and Oman to establish some form of permanent toll system through Hormuz.
“We want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls,” Trump told reporters Thursday at the White House. “It’s an international waterway. They are not charging tolls right now.”
And how, pray tell, does Trump know whether or not tolls are being paid? Two of the vessels that proceeded through the Strait of Hormuz were China-bound tankers carrying Iraqi oil. Trump has no way of verifying if the Chinese buyers paid in yuan or bitcoin. Admittedly, with China and Iraq both friendly, either no fee or a very small one might have been levied. But many shippers have no reason to be transparent with the US about their toll booth dealings.
Confirming those reservations, a new Wall Street Journal exclusive reports Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime—Continuing Into This Month:
As Iran braced for conflict with the U.S., a key regime financier built a secret payment network to keep money flowing to its military forces. At its core was Binance.
Until as recently as December, the network, run by Babak Zanjani, an Iranian who is a self-described “antisanction” operator, made $850 million in transactions over two years on the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, mostly on a single trading account, internal Binance compliance reports show.
Zanjani allies, including a sister, a romantic partner and a director of Zanjani’s company, ran additional accounts, all accessed from the same devices—a pattern the Binance investigators flagged in their reports as evidence the group was evading U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Even after multiple internal flags on the activity, the main account continued to operate over a period of at least 15 months and was open as of January, according to the Binance reports. Zanjani’s use of Binance hasn’t been previously reported.
The funds are part of billions in crypto transactions that have flowed through Binance to networks financing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the two years preceding the current U.S.-Iran war, according to Binance compliance reports, blockchain data, foreign law-enforcement officials who track terrorism financing and other crypto researchers and nonpublic documents.
Foreign law-enforcement officials said they have continued to track money this year flowing through Binance accounts to Iranian entities associated with the regime—identifying transactions as recently as this month.
Recall that Trump so hearts crypto that he pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao who had served four months for money laundering abuses.
Back to the main event. Aljazeera’s live feed describes a fog of negotiations:
Significant challenges remain despite Pakistan mediating US-Iran talks
One hour we hear that significant progress has been made and then the next, reports emerge that huge disagreements remain between the US and Iran.
So it’s extremely difficult to read the situation here.
Iran says it still reading the US proposals and will convey its answer to the Pakistani mediators. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has been in Tehran for three days and is trying to bridge the gap between the negotiating parties.
Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir didn’t arrive in Tehran yesterday as expected.
Many believe that Munir will only come to Tehran once significant progress has been made. This would mark his second visit to the country.
Hindustan Times squares the informational circle:
The segment says that multiple Iranian sources said publicly that Iran would not let its enriched uranium leave Iran mentioning several, including a Foreign Ministry spokesperson. Hindustan Times had said there were some who favored making the concession tha it be held outside Iran but opposition to the idea solidified after Trump kept threatening attacks.
And on the continuing Trump noises about hitting Iran hard yet again…
Many readers are skeptical, despite the readings of from military professionals who get gossip from insiders, that Trump would return to a hot war, even if only briefly due to limited capabilities. Recall that professor Robert Pape also argues that nations locked in fights over sovereignity will typically choose to gamble on escalation, even if the odds of success look poor, rather than accept a certain loss by walking away.
In their Thursday morning Breaking Points show, Ryan Grim and Saagar Enjeti both said they expected the US and Israel to make new strikes. They discussed how each time before launching major attacks on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu feigned being at loggerheads.
We’ll turn to an early discussion in the show, of Iran clearly rejecting the idea of moving its enriched uranium outside Iran. From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Saagar: This is the latest breaking news. Reuters, Iran’s Supreme Leader has now issued a directive that the country’s near weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening the Iran stance on one of the main US demands. So this is by far Ryan the biggest sticking point of the entire deal. Not even potentially even more so than the Strait of Hormuz where the Iranians have shown some level of flexibility because effectively what this new directive from the Supreme Leader says is number one, this cannot be questioned, because it’s coming from the Supreme Leader. So that means this is policy. This is the policy that has been set out. Two, Trump has said actually that all of the weapons-grade uranium, in fact, all of the uranium has to not only be taken out of Iran, but they would not even accept it being sent to China and to Russia, which previously had been floated. Here, the Supreme Leader is drawing a complete red line, saying it is not leaving the country, period.
Which means that they will retain some level of control over it. They have offered in the past to down blend their uranium under IAEA inspections. And I know this can sound a little bit technical, but the bottom line is this: It is a huge middle finger to probably the number one nuclear demand that Donald Trump has made from the outset in this entire war.
Later in the segment:
Ryan: And as people have been pointing out, um, Axios published by Barack Ravid almost identical stories in, , June of 2025, right before the 12-day war started, and then again in February of this year, right before this ongoing war, started. So when some people saw that article, like, wait, I’ve read this twice before and I know what follows, war resumes..
And perhaps the Iranians are tired of this pattern and are kind of throwing in some type of new variable here >> because otherwise it’s like groundhog day. like Barack Ravid promises Netanyahu is furious and that Trump is on the brink of reaching a deal with them and then there’s a surprise attack and they you know they kill all the as many politicians and military figures and and middle schoolers as they can as they can in like a a short period of time…
Saagar: I think people should be pessimistic because in the way Trump has talked, Trump has actually trapped himself twice ironically. So he did the escalation trap where he didn’t def defeat Iran and so now he has only two options surrender andor uh basically escalation. The other trap that he made is he basically left himself no negotiating room whenever it came to the nuclear issue where he said, “No, we’re going to take it all.” And so those two things is way past the JCPOA and actually Iran in a stronger position now because of their drone threat, their ability to sustain and survive an onslaught of the full force and might of the United States Empire.
Keep in mind it is also not in Netanyahu’s general interest to depict himself either as having a falling out with Trump or at failing to get the US to continue to deliver on Israel’s demands in a conflict that is overwhelmingly popular in the settler state. Recall that the news of what allegedly happened in the call was leaked promptly to the press, and unflatteringly presented the two genociders as having gotten in a verbal row.
This Trump propensity comes despite more evidence of the dwindling US capacity to carry on militarily:
US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel from Iranian attacks; also fired 100+ SM-3/SM-6 missiles. Israel used fewer than 100 Arrow and ~90 David’s Sling interceptors. US official says future Iran fighting could require even more US interceptors due to Israeli…
— ILRedAlert (@ILRedAlert) May 21, 2026
Not surprisingly, Israel is using the predictable impasse to press for a resumption of a hot war, arguing Iran will attack:
Israeli intelligence officials claim Iran is planning a major surprise missile and drone attack against Israel and Gulf states following the collapse of negotiations, while Israeli officials argue that Israel “must” strike Iran immediately to pre-empt the attack, as U.S.-Iran… pic.twitter.com/tYyi3A9Shr
— Beirut Wire (@beirutwire) May 22, 2026
I have not yet found an English language Iranian media source that says Iran has threatened Europe, but there are some independent claims on Twitter as of now:
🇮🇷💥🇺🇸🇬🇷🇷🇴🇩🇪The IRGC announced in case of a renewed conflict with the U.S. and Israel, Iran will consider targeting American bases in Greece, Romania and Germany pic.twitter.com/6FFrJgLUEx
— Hawkeye1812Z (@Hawkeye1745) May 22, 2026
But Iran had said on the 19th that it was prepared to take the conflict outside the theater if the US struck again. From Euractiv in Iran army warns will ‘open new fronts’ against US if attacks resume:
Iran’s army warned on Tuesday it would “open new fronts” against the United States if it resumes attacks, after President Donald Trump said he had held off launching a new offensive in hopes of striking a deal.
“If the enemy is foolish enough to fall into the Zionist trap again and launches new aggression against our beloved Iran, we will open new fronts against it, with new equipment and new methods,” said army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.
Japan Times tells us Iran can assert sovereignity over underseas cable without destroying them, merely by denying access to them for maintenance. From Iran’s threat to Strait of Hormuz submarine cables:
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened Monday to impose “permits” on submarine fiber-optic cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz…
Major connections running through the strait include a branch of AAE-1 (Asia, Africa, Europe), which connects points from Hong Kong to Italy and France.
Meanwhile, the FALCON and Gulf Bridge cables connect countries in the Persian Gulf — including Iran — with India and eastern Africa as far as Egypt.
Data running over the cables includes “all kinds of traffic, any data you can think of — videos, email, social media, financial transactions, government communication,” said Alan Mauldin, research director at specialist data firm TeleGeography.
The potential for global disruption is limited as data flowing between Asia and Europe on AAE-1 does not pass via the Gulf branch, Mauldin said.
What’s more, “all of the Gulf countries using submarine cables that traverse the Strait of Hormuz have multiple other connectivity options,” he added.
But Mauldin did note in a March blog that “the capacity of terrestrial networks may not be sufficient to handle the complete rerouting of traffic” if the Gulf’s subsea connections are cut off…
Hormuz is “a closed-in geographic area in a strait, with relatively shallow waters … it’s especially favorable for harassment operations using manned or unmanned systems,” said Eric Lavault, a former French naval officer.
Lavault pointed out that American forces have not been able to prevent Iran from launching operations from its long Gulf coast, with Tehran retaining “solid military potential.”
Iran could both attack the cables themselves and “prevent the cable firms from carrying out operations, either for maintenance or for laying new cables,” he said.
“If Iran damages them, they’ll have to be repaired,” Lavault added.
Cables around the world are regularly damaged — mostly by accidents, such as ships dragging their anchors. The International Cable Protection Committee tallied around 200 incidents a year, Mauldin wrote in March.
“A dedicated fleet of repair vessels is on standby,” he noted.
But these require permits to enter a country’s waters and must remain stationary on site for long periods — making them potentially vulnerable to attack.
The opening section of this segment shows a map with Iran’s claimed area of control in the Strait of Hormuz. Even if Iran does not have that all buttoned down not, one should assume it will soon:
Iran seems finally to be getting its Persian Gulf Authority operations in reasonable order. From Aljazeera’s live feed:
Iran’s IRGC says 35 ships passed Hormuz with permission in last 24 hours
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has issued a statement saying that 35 ships, including oil tankers and container vessels, have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
It said that these movements took place with the permission of and coordination with the IRGC navy.
Yesterday, the IRGC said 31 ships crossed the waterway in a 24-hour period.
But keep in mind that:
1. Many (likely most) of these vessels will be ships that were bottled up in the Gulf and desperate to get out. Many of their owners and crews would accept more risk to make an escape than they would for two-way transit. A low level of harassment by the US on the way to the Arabian Sea, particularly if the US captures or damages the occasional vessel, would suffice to deter a lot of opertors.
2. This level, while an encouraging improvement, is still way below the old normal of over 130 crossings a day
On the economic front, a new Eurodollar University talk returns to one of Jeff Snider’s ongoing themes: how the behavior of mass retailers confirms that budget stress on ordinary consumers is rising, as confirmed by Kroger attempting to lower prices…how exactly, with big increases starting in some products and expected to extend more broadly as the impact of fertilizer shortages and pricey diesel. Snider also describes better performance at Walmart as a misleading indicator as far as household budget health is concerned, since it is mainly the result of affluent customer slumming:
Another worrisome sighting is that in the face of higher gas and diesel prices, demand has not fallen meaningfully, due among other things to subsides, inventory releases, and happy official patter as opposed to signals to hunker down, such as warning that rationing may be coming soon:L
Yesterday the EIA said out loud what I have been repeating like a broken record for over two months: at ~100$ a barrel there is no crude oil demand destruction whatsoever ⚠️
Enjoy the governments subsidised party till it lasts, because what comes next will be brutal https://t.co/DUtZznZj9J pic.twitter.com/OohZqz66Qe
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) May 21, 2026
Confirming what I imagine are a lot of priors here, big money is finally betting against the stock market. But this may set up a monster short squeeze:
Hedge Funds have increased their short exposure to the highest level in AT LEAST the last decade 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/q1ahgaVoZz
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 21, 2026
Done for today! You may not see me on this beat again until Tuesday unless thing heat up. Let’s all hope for a quiet long weekend.
