[This Iran war post launched before complete because existing commitments. I will tweak it a bit upon my return and a final version will be ready by 8:00 AM EDT at the outside]
As President Trump always enjoys, he has become the center of attention over the landmark question of “to or not to generalize the attack on Iran.” Iran is not making this any easier by refusing to include pork maquillage in its latest proposal, although some might argue that the very fact of the proposal is a small concession. The Wall Street Journal tried to clean up the situation on Trump’s behalf, claiming in a headline that Iran had softened its stance by dropping American demands for the need to lift the U.S. blockade as a precondition for talks. We noted that this was merely a procedural measure and that there was no sign that Iran had slowed down on its substantive demands, offset by what the Trump team would likely see as a larger maneuver: postponing nuclear discussions to focus on the Strait of Hormuz and other pressing conflict issues. Recall that many commentators have suggested that what might save face for Trump is to get improvements on nuclear enrichment compared to the JCPOA, such as eliminating sunsets, and call it a victory in the face of other large-scale drawdowns. Iran does not even acknowledge that.
Per drop site: 2
🚨 Latest news: Details of Iran’s 14-point response to the US proposal, according to Iran’s Tasnim News:
▪️ Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the IRGC, reported that Iran had accepted the US’s nine-point proposal and passed the proposal on to Pakistani intermediaries. It centers around “the end.”
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 2, 2026
From what we read yesterday, President Trump seems inclined to reopen the conflict. His latest signals are consistent with that.
You’ll know things are going well when the White House posts an hour-long looped video of President Trump saying he “won.” pic.twitter.com/FxuXnhis9R
— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) May 2, 2026
Indeed, Mr. Trump is trying to make it difficult to read what he is doing. But gaining access to Iranian terms is not a victory. Attacking Iran is a win until Iran strikes back.
Daniel Davis gives some audio responses (the archive site is currently unresponsive, so please forgive me for relying on tweets rather than Axios’ source material).
Iran today reportedly announced a 14-point plan to the United States to end the war, in response to President Trump’s recent calls for a negotiated end. However, President Trump reportedly rejected these conditions and it is already DOA.
Meanwhile, President Trump is in crisis in real time, and nothing is clear… pic.twitter.com/t8ePuTMyRt
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) May 2, 2026
This agreement amounts to a public admission of President Trump’s failure. It also calls for an end to the Lebanon War, requiring a de facto surrender by Israel and the withdrawal of its troops. Even in the last hours of today, that battle is raging, so don’t count on it… https://t.co/8djLIEoQrG
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) May 3, 2026
And of course, Israel is busy throwing spanners.
⭕️⚡️ Hebrew Channel 14:
Hezbollah has increased the pace of its shelling in an attempt to disrupt negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government and impose a new formula.
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 2, 2026
“Armchair Warlord” makes an even larger, if sad, observation that Hegseth’s signature embarrassing chest-pounding and shouting in lieu of logic has become commonplace in the military world. It is so common that it is not even considered a disease.
The American military establishment is so mentally destroyed by the privileges of hegemony that it cannot even comprehend what defeat really feels like. ⬇️
Simply defined, victory is the imposition of your will on your enemy. Military advisor told President Trump… pic.twitter.com/UtInsvuOLT
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) May 2, 2026
In terms of movement, all we have are informational tidbits. A wave of military transport projects is leaving the Gulf, which could indicate a spillover of supplies, or a backhaul flight to bring in more kit, or simply a return from a patrol. but:
⭕️ Simultaneously track multiple US Air Force transport plans departing from the Middle East
Share open source flight tracking data @EGYOSINT At least eight U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster and C-5M Super Galaxy strategic military transport aircraft are shown departing from central… https://t.co/yTD7d2ShMU
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 3, 2026
Although the beginning of this talk will probably be overly basic for most readers, Professor Hanke quickly makes several important points. He independently calculates inflation rates based on daily data and claims that Iran’s inflation rate is over 100%. But he then said that it doesn’t matter when it comes to their war posture, they can accept a lot of suffering and see this war as an existential one. He is also an advisor to the UAE government and has developed an optimal oil production model for the UAE government. He said he had expected the UAE to leave OPEC for the past two-and-a-half years on this basis, but it was just a matter of timing. He also says that the UAE’s demand for a dollar swap line is exaggerated (and that it has not yet been granted). This is more of a free rainy day insurance policy than a sign of dire need (though I expect that need to materialize sooner than Mr. Hanke thinks). They also point out that the average amount of oil on hand in Asia is only about three weeks, with Pakistan just three days (Thailand currently has 108 days). And Iran has not been able to fill Pakistan’s energy hole3.
Janta Ka highlights the escalating conflict between the United States and China over the United States’ imposition of secondary sanctions on five Chinese companies.
Aljazeeera live blog details:
China aims to block US sanctions on companies buying Iranian oil
We previously reported how the United States imposed sanctions on Chinese companies deemed involved in Iranian oil trade, prompting Beijing to denounce Washington’s “long-term jurisdiction.”
China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued an injunction to block US sanctions imposed on five Chinese companies for allegedly purchasing Iranian oil.
According to state-run Xinhua News Agency, the ministry nominated five companies: Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group, Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical, and Shandong Shengxing Chemical.
It is not immediately clear how the injunction will be enforced.
The problem here is that China can’t do much to block the U.S. action, which would likely result in at least some companies restricting their ability to do business with these Chinese companies. But China’s official rebels are retaliating, potentially forcing the United States to withdraw.
Jantaka also features Larry Johnson, who slams the US lockdown. But I feel like we have to clear our throats again. Yes, this move is completely embarrassing by the standards of a typical military blockade, aimed at blocking the transportation of critical supplies such as weapons (as in the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis) and fuel. In these cases, the goal is close to 100% effectiveness.
Here, the US definitely wants to achieve that, but 80/20 is more than enough to limit oil shipments from Iran (and other countries by the way). That’s why this move, which harms Iran, extends the harm to bystanders as well. Few ship operators are willing to risk their ships being captured or damaged and their crew imprisoned or injured. We don’t know for sure, but it seems highly unlikely that war insurance would cover damage or loss of use resulting from carrying out a blockade. It is the pilot’s choice to put the ship at risk, not the innocent victim.
And coincidentally, Iranian exports were cut by 80%, which is a good guess as to what happened. From Arrabiya (Hat Chip Louis):
It is impossible to measure how much oil Iran is supplying to its customers, especially China, which is its main customer, because some ships have turned off their tracking systems and the U.S. military is turning back Iranian tankers.
Several carriers carrying Iranian crude left the Gulf of Oman between April 13 and 25, according to oil analysis firm Vortexa. This is down more than 80% compared to the same period in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels, according to LSEG data.
Some of Tehran’s ships were seized by the United States after leaving Iranian ports, along with sanctioned container ships and Iranian tankers in Asian waters.
“At this stage, we estimate that approximately 4 million barrels of Iranian oil have been successfully removed from the Gulf of Oman. At this time, we cannot confirm whether these vessels have been subsequently seized,” he said in an email to Reuters.
Skirmishes and blockade operations continue:
A VLCC supertanker from the Iranian National Tanker Company (NITC) carrying more than 1.9 million barrels of crude oil (equivalent to about $220 million) has escaped attack by the US Navy and reached the Far East.
Her name was Huge (9357183) and we last saw her off the coast of Sri Lanka. pic.twitter.com/dBf7QzPVkB
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 3, 2026
🏴☠️🇺🇸🚢 The US Navy intercepted the bulk carrier NIKI, which was leaving Iran’s Chabahar port on its way to South Africa.
The Japanese-owned bulk carrier Aurora may also have been forced to turn back after passing through the Strait of Hormuz with approval from the Revolutionary Guards. pic.twitter.com/08pOiqnrUp
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) May 2, 2026
As noted in a lengthy article, Iran is strengthening other oil export routes, including rail to China and six new corridors that Pakistan has just opened. In addition:
🇮🇶🇸🇾 Iraq supplies oil via Syria for first time in 14 years as Hormuz closure hits economy
On Friday, a convoy of 70 Iraqi crude oil tankers entered Syria through the Al-Yarbiya border crossing. It was the first shipment to pass through the route since the border was closed due to the Syrian civil war. pic.twitter.com/QROuqYPfCH
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 3, 2026
Still, it is not clear how quickly or fully the strain on maritime exports can be compensated for.
Ansar Allah has also threatened escalation against Saudi Arabia, and this warning appears to stem from their own dissatisfaction with Riyadh rather than support for Iran (although the fact that Saudi Arabia is already stressed further strengthens Ansar Allah’s influence. This tweet is from an Ansar Allah spokesperson:
example:
هذه هي الفرصة الأخيرة، ولا تحتمل أي تأجيل أو تردد. قد نفد صبر شعبنا، ولم يعد هناك مجال لاستمرار الوضع كما هو عليه.
غتنام هذه اللحظة بات ضرورة حتمية لاتخاذ خطوات جادة تُنهي المعاناة Hi there. جاهل هذه الفرصة سيُفقد أي أمل… pic.twitter.com/6IJRar6E4x
— محمد البخيتي Mohamed A-Bukhai (@kwnn_yemen) May 2, 2026
It is unclear whether this is related to the rattling of Ansar Allah’s sabers.
⭕️⚡️ The UAE-owned oil tanker M/T Eureka was hijacked off the coast of Shabwa, Yemen, according to a statement from the Yemeni Coast Guard. The tanker left Fujairah eight days ago and was anchored near Mukalla for two days. pic.twitter.com/k18Qkyee44
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 2, 2026
Additional economic news sightings. The situation in Australia is tough:
It is surprising that Thailand is in a much better (but still not great) reserve position than Australia
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1 Iran’s point is valid. The JCPOA negotiations took years.
2 I couldn’t find the account on the English version of Tasnim, even after reading the article and searching the site.
3/sup> Professor Hanke gives the impression that Iran cannot supply sufficient quantities even on an absolute basis, but since Iran already has commitments with China, there is a limit to how much it can send to other countries, and in addition, its heavy sour crude oil is not perfect.
