Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, DC on March 19, 2026.
Kevin Dietch | Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to remain in office for a short period after his term as central bank chief ends, predicts prediction market platform Bettors Carsi.
Bettors put a 30% chance that Mr. Powell will resign as a member of the Federal Reserve Board by June. However, bettors are confident he will make it by August or the end of the year, with odds of 66% and 81% respectively.
Powell said after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March that he would not resign as president until the Justice Department’s criminal investigation against him was resolved. On Friday, the Justice Department suspended its investigation into Mr. Powell.
When that happened, the odds that Mr. Powell would resign by June soared to nearly 54.5%, but fell in the days that followed.
But Polymarket bettors believe Mr Powell’s exit is imminent. There is an 87% chance that he will resign between May 15th and May 22nd.
Powell is scheduled to address reporters after Wednesday’s Fed meeting, which will likely be his last as Fed chief, as long as President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh can win Senate confirmation by the next meeting in mid-June. Powell is scheduled to answer questions about his plans at a news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Warsh’s nomination passed the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning.
Trump and Powell have clashed since the start of the president’s second term last year. The White House is frustrated that the Fed hasn’t cut rates as quickly and as sharply as the Trump administration would like. Some observers have worried that Mr. Trump appointed Mr. Warsh to push his views on interest rates, but Mr. Warsh pushed back on those concerns, saying he believed in the Fed’s independence.
If Mr. Powell does not resign until August, he will remain in office for two more meetings, one in June and one in late July. Powell’s term as president will continue until 2028.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
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