Homeowners are increasingly willing to forego ultra-low mortgage rates and buy mortgages, new research from Intel has found.
The ultra-low mortgage rates that consumers secured during the pandemic-driven housing boom have cast a cloud over the real estate transaction environment for years.
That may finally be changing.
An Intel review of the latest results from Inman-Dig Insights consumer research reveals that homeowners this spring are more likely than a year ago to say they would buy again soon, even if it meant forgoing valuable pandemic-era interest rates.
This change partly reflects changes in economic uncertainty. Some consumer groups reacted more strongly to last April’s rate announcement than to this year’s energy market disruption caused by the Iran war.
However, a closer look at the survey data reveals that the influence of a homeowner’s existing mortgage rate on the likelihood of signing up for a mortgage may also be weakening. And that could have implications for the summer and next year as the war draws to a close.
Read the full analysis in this week’s report.
Lock-in effect is alleviated
An Inman Dig Insights consumer survey conducted earlier this month provides some of the clearest signs yet that the rate lock-in effect has eased significantly since last spring.
The survey of 3,000 working adults in the United States found that homeowners in particular are more likely to say they are willing to buy a home this month than they were at the same time last year.
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As seen above, homeowners in early April felt more financially ready to buy overall than they did at the same time last year. This year-over-year change was especially large for households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more.
Even more notable than the improvement in financial preparedness is the increase in declared interest in home purchases expressed by homeowners in different income groups from April 2025 to April 2026.
When Intel surveyed consumers last April, it was just days after the Trump administration announced widespread tariffs on imported goods. The uncertainty surrounding these changes sent the market into a slump that took several weeks to recover from. Higher-income consumers, who are more likely to own stocks and other assets, were particularly exposed to these fluctuations.
However, further analysis of the survey data reveals that these changes are more than just changes in economic uncertainty.
Homeowners with a mortgage were more likely to say they were interested in buying a home in April than a year ago, even taking into account current loan interest rates.
This is a clear sign that mortgage rate lock-in is indeed gaining more control (albeit weakening) in today’s depressed trading environment.
Among homeowners with mortgages who say they are “very likely” to buy a home in the next 12 months, only 27% have interest rates on their existing loans below 4%. By contrast, 45% of homeowners with mortgages who say they are “very unlikely” to buy this year have interest rates below 4%.
Instead, the most likely buyers are now in a sweet spot with interest rates in the 4% to 6% range.
Among homeowners who had a mortgage and were “very likely” to buy, 52% had interest rates in the 4% to 6% range. Only 29 percent of the “very unlikely” group had interest rates within the same range of today’s rates.
Those with mortgage rates above 6% were no more likely than other groups to say they would buy right away. This can be an indicator of how recently you moved into your current home.
However, there are still signs that the lock-in effect will wane over time, even though there is still a significant incentive to maintain favorable interest rates for many homeowners.
This is especially true at the extremes of the interest rate spectrum, where the intentions of those who are easiest to buy and those who are most resistant to entering the market are gradually converging.
As of April, there was a 15-point difference between homeowners with mortgages who were “very unlikely to buy” and those with interest rates below 3.5% (those who primarily bought or refinanced during the pandemic’s ultra-low housing frenzy) who were “very likely to buy.” Although this is a large difference, it is still smaller than the 20-point difference recorded between the same two groups in April 2025.
What is the overall point? The interest rate lock-in effect is still real, but it has never been an absolute barrier to migration for people with low interest rates. And over time, it becomes less and less of a hold-up.
These conditions could support continued growth in housing transactions through the summer, especially if the uncertainty around interest rates resolves in consumers’ favor.
About Inman-Dig Insights Consumer Research
The Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey was conducted April 10-11 to assess Americans’ opinions and behaviors regarding homebuying.
The study sampled a diverse group of 3,000 full-time or part-time employed American adults between the ages of 24 and 65. Participants were selected to create a broadly representative breakdown by gender and region.
Statistical rigor was maintained throughout the study, and the results should be largely representative of attitudes held by U.S. adults with full-time or part-time jobs. Both Inman and Dig Insights are majority-owned by Toronto-based Bellinger Capital.
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