U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, attends a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday, April 21, 2026 in Washington, DC, USA.
Graham Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
On Friday, prediction market platform Calsi’s odds that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Fed chair within a month skyrocketed after the Justice Department announced it was ending its investigation into current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Bettors on the platform currently see an 86% chance that Warsh’s nomination will be approved by the U.S. Senate by May 15th, and a more than 97% chance of approval by June 1st.
Before the investigation into Mr. Powell was closed on Monday morning, bettors were giving odds of about 30% that Mr. Powell would be confirmed by May 15.
Closing the investigation is in response to a key demand from Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina. He said he supports Mr. Warsh as the Fed chair candidate, but said he could not vote to advance the nomination until the criminal investigation into Mr. Powell was completed.
Tillis serves on the Senate Banking Committee, which will need a vote to send Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate. If Tillis votes against advancing Warsh’s nomination, his chances on the Senate floor would be closed if all Democrats on the committee opposed President Donald Trump’s pick.
The conclusion of the investigation today will likely result in Warsh’s candidacy being removed from the committee, but Tillis has not made any public statements since the investigation was dropped. CNBC has reached out to his office for comment.
But bettors believe the news is a clear signal. At Polymarket, bettors currently expect Warsh to have an 81% chance of being confirmed by May 15th and an equally likely 98% chance of being confirmed by June 1st.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
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