Analysis of 284 Congressional Districts Reveals Immigration’s Role in Tight Race Shaping
WASHINGTON, DC, April 16 — A new analysis from the American Immigration Council finds that millions of American immigrant voters make up the majority of voters in the 284 congressional districts up for election this year.
Voting data analysis reflects only eligible and registered voters. Under federal law, only U.S. citizens can vote in federal elections.
The analysis, based on the most recent data available from the 2024 American Community Survey, showed that across the neighborhoods surveyed, nearly one in five residents is an immigrant. They play a critical role in the workforce, tax base, and local economy that shape voters’ priorities.
Key findings include:
Immigrant Americans are poised to play a key role in close elections. Across the districts analyzed, there are an estimated 16 million registered immigrant voters (i.e., naturalized U.S. citizens who are eligible and registered to vote). In 44% of these districts (126 of 284 districts), the number of eligible immigrant voters exceeds the margin of victory in the 2024 election. For example, Florida’s 25th Congressional District has an estimated 135,500 immigrant voters. The district switched from Republican to Democratic control in 2022, and Democrats won again in 2024 by a slim margin of 30,700 votes. In New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District, Democrats won by just over 12,600 votes in 2024. There are approximately 165,000 immigrants in New Jersey who are U.S. citizens over the age of 18 and eligible to vote. Language and outreach are key. On average, 83.1 percent of immigrants speak a language other than English at home, highlighting the importance of outreach that reflects the diversity of these neighborhoods’ communities. Immigrants are a major part of the local community. On average, immigrants make up nearly 20 percent of residents across the 284 neighborhoods analyzed, and in some neighborhoods, immigrants make up more than half the population.
“Immigrant voters who are U.S. citizens are an important part of the electorate in many communities, especially in close races,” said Nan Wu, director of research at the American Immigration Council. “Like other voters, they care about jobs, housing and the economy, and they have deep roots in the communities they sustain.”
The analysis also highlights that immigration’s influence extends beyond elections. Across the districts surveyed, immigrants drive economic growth, support major industries, and help solve issues that dominate elections, from inflation and housing to labor shortages.
Taken together, these findings demonstrate that immigrants are not a niche population but a core part of the communities, economies, and constituencies that define many Congressional districts.
