Eve, here. One must add to the list the idea of why the United States, with limited means, allowed a Russian tanker to arrive in Cuba. The US military is already severely overstretched. And it’s not as if Russia can or plans to send enough fuel to do more than extend Cuba’s energy suppression schedule. So either Trump was distracted, or Rubio agreed not to intervene because he believed Russia’s gesture wouldn’t change the outcome.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
President Trump handed President Putin a soft power victory, earning thunderous applause from the majority of the world.
President Trump refused to impose a de facto U.S. blockade of Cuba on a Russian oil tanker that was carrying enough fuel to meet Cuba’s needs for about a week. In his words, “I don’t care about having someone load the ship, because they have to survive. If a country wants to send oil to Cuba right now, that’s fine by me. I prefer to send it, whether it’s Russia or wherever, because people need heating, cooling, and all the other things they need.” There are five reasons for this.
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1. Avoid potential escalation with Russia
The oil tanker that just arrived in Russia is an existing Russian tanker, not one from another country that suddenly decided to fly the Russian flag when Western countries put pressure on it, as happened in recent months before the seizure of members of the so-called “shadow fleet.” Therefore, President Trump may have calculated that if President Putin authorized the seizure, it could potentially increase tensions, which could be inconvenient for the United States, which is embroiled in a third Gulf War, which is one possible reason for overlooking this.
2. I want President Putin to continue talks.
Another reason is that Trump may have presented it as a goodwill gesture to please Putin in order to continue stalled talks amid growing skepticism among Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russia experts about Trump’s intentions. By giving Putin, who is applauded by most of the world, something that can be passed off as a soft power victory, Trump may be showing that Putin actually has good intentions, and should dismiss speculation about his motives.
3. Prevent a full-scale humanitarian crisis
There is no doubt that the United States’ de facto blockade of Cuba has already caused a humanitarian crisis, but allowing Russian tankers to supply the island with about a week’s worth of fuel may have been aimed at preventing a full-scale humanitarian crisis that could spread to Florida. This can be intuitively understood from Trump’s words quoted earlier. Essentially, the US may have decided to allow Cuba to import the minimum necessary oil for this reason, which keeps the crisis manageable from Cuba’s perspective.
4. Reward or encourage governments
Another reason for the United States to have Russia lift its de facto blockade of Cuba may have been to reward the government for some Russian concessions through ongoing negotiations, or perhaps to encourage such concessions if they had not already been made. As explained here, “Cuba’s ‘regime adjustment’ is the most realistic outcome of the U.S.-induced crisis” refers to a political change that preserves the existing power structure. Therefore, this goal may be closer to being achieved than many people think.
5. TACO (“Trump always chickens out”)
It is also possible that President Trump has become “grumpy” after President Putin called a supposed “bluff” on the de facto blockade of Cuba. Granted, he doesn’t “get away all the time,” as the US is currently bombing Iran despite the risk of backlash against its own interests, but Russia could do even more damage to Iran than it does to Iran, so perhaps it may have decided not to test Putin just to be on the safe side. Of all the reasons he gave for Russia to lift the blockade, this is the least convincing, but it will probably resonate with many.
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Overall, the US decision not to implement a de facto blockade of Cuba on behalf of Russia helps alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Cuba, but this same crisis would not have occurred without the blockade. There was clearly an invisible cost to this decision, as President Trump also handed Putin a soft power victory that won thunderous applause from the world’s majority at the expense of the United States. However, the United States still controls the dynamics of Cuba’s humanitarian crisis, which will only be alleviated at the mercy of President Trump.
