Eve is here. The brave Cuban government and people have finally lost the battle to choose their government. Despite the extremely high costs that America’s long-term economic repression has imposed on the island, the exercise may have been a demonstration of American machismo, having succeeded in driving a small nearby country against a wall. This administration has the brains and attention spans of a gnat, so it may not have the tenacity to impose meaningful institutional changes.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
Entire populations are held hostage in this hybrid war, which is neither fair nor international law, but it is objectively the reality that exists.
After detaining President Nicolás Maduro and gaining proxy control over Venezuelan suppliers in Havana the previous month, the predictably devastating effects of the de facto oil blockade against Cuba led to an assessment in early February that “the United States is on the brink of subordination to Cuba.” Similar to this case, the same analysis concluded that “the Venezuelan precedent proves that the United States can accept ‘regime adjustment’ in place of regime change.”
The concept “refers to the maintenance of a target state’s power structure even after (sometimes significant) changes that advance the intervening state’s interests.” According to a recent report in the New York Times, shortly after a de facto U.S. oil blockade caused power outages across Cuba, “the United States has signaled to Cuban negotiators that the president must step down, but is leaving the next steps up to Cuba,” provided it accepts making the country a “vassal state” of the United States.
The outlet describes the Trump 2.0 policy as “regime compliance” rather than regime change, and here it hyperlinks to one of its reports from two days ago, attributing the policy to Marco Rubio, one of the most powerful US officials in decades. This is essentially the same as the “regime adjustment” concept first used to describe US special military operations in Venezuela. Both “regime adjustment” and “regime compliance” aim to subordinate the target country to US hegemony.
Returning to the Cuba example in light of the recent reporting in the New York Times about the island-wide power outage and Trump 2.0 “regime compliance” goal there, this is precisely the most real outcome of the US-induced crisis, and perhaps the best real (key word) outcome for the Cuban people as well. Indeed, as in any country, any political change in one’s country should be initiated by them and not by foreign powers, but today that is not the case, and it is delusional to pretend otherwise.
The United States is to blame for Cuba’s energy crisis, which threatens to have very serious humanitarian consequences the longer it drags on, and the Cuban government has no realistic chance of breaking its de facto oil blockade. No matter how much some at home and abroad might want to, neither Russia nor China nor anyone else is willing to risk a war with the United States over Cuba’s political future. To be clear, acknowledging reality does not mean endorsing reality, and no one should confuse the two.
With this in mind, the best thing for the Cuban people at this point is for the president to resign in exchange for some relief from the energy crisis, and perhaps priority given to hospitals, schools, and other facilities that the United States supplies with fuel in what it arbitrarily calls “humanitarian aid.” No one should doubt that this is being done under duress, as the entire nation is being held hostage in this hybrid war. This is not fair or international law, but it is objectively the reality that exists.
Further concessions are inevitable, but it is difficult to imagine an alternative as the United States could extend its de facto oil blockade to attacks on military, police, and political facilities, and later into major food-producing areas, bringing a rebellious Cuba to its knees. There is zero chance that the island’s government will survive this siege unscathed, so they will either martyr themselves (as the military, police, and people expect them to do too) or submit to the United States, which is their client from then on, to save everyone.
