Eve is here. I have yet to see any independent media commentators evaluate this development. But I don’t think Iran will back down. Perhaps they are strengthening seemingly neutral methods of establishing more passive facts on the ground (or more precisely under the sea) to block the Strait of Hormuz, such as mining, so that Iran does not have to shell Pakistani escort ships. Max Blumenthal will discuss the possibility of mining in the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10:00, which appears to have been first published by CBS News, which reports from Israel. He sees this as a last resort, as mines used by Iran are difficult to remove and Iran can sometimes set ships on fire to deter them from changing insurers or shippers. See the headings below for more information.
I have no interest in Mario Naufal at all. I’m impressed by how Blumenthal doesn’t look away as he exposes his epic foibles.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
If this unilateral escort mission were allowed to continue unhindered, it could lead to Pakistan forming the core of a multilateral mission to neutralize Iran’s ace by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but it is unclear exactly what decision the Revolutionary Guards will make, as preventing it would risk escalating the war, and neither option is ideal.
Pakistan announced the launch of Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr (“Guardian of the Seas”) “to counter multidimensional threats to the country’s shipping and maritime trade. This initiative was undertaken to ensure the uninterrupted flow of the nation’s energy supplies and the security of the Sea Line of Communication (SLOC). The PN escort operation is being carried out in close coordination with Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC). ” The New York Times contextualizes the mission as follows: their report.
They reminded readers that “Pakistan imports most of its natural gas from Qatar and most of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” which are no longer reliably exported due to the third Gulf War. However, it is unclear whether the deployment of Pakistan’s warships will be enough to prevent oil supply shortages.According to the Oil Ministry, Pakistan has less than two weeks of crude oil reserves remaining and enough liquefied natural gas reserves to last until the end of this month.
However, the Pakistan Navy’s regional escort mission poses a dilemma for Iran. This is because Pakistan is reluctant to go to war in solidarity with ally Saudi Arabia under the September Mutual Defense Agreement, which it considers a friend but also a “major non-NATO ally” of the United States. Therefore, while allowing this unilateral escort mission to continue unimpeded could lead to Pakistan forming the core of a multilateral mission to neutralize Iran’s ace in blocking the Strait of Hormuz, blocking it risks escalating the war.
Pakistan has played its cards in the past, such as having President Asif Ali Zardari describe Khamenei as a “martyr” and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif congratulating Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, but this was probably more intended to displease Pakistan’s Shiites than to please Iran. In any case, this was still a show of goodwill, but the conflict between Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards and Pakistan’s equally powerful regime (referring to the military and intelligence services) remains.
Casual observers may have forgotten, but Iran bombed Tehran-designated Baloch terrorist separatists in Pakistan in January 2024, which triggered retaliatory bombings by Pakistan against another Baloch group designated as terrorist separatist by Islamabad. Readers can refresh their memories about these retaliatory attacks here. Although Iran and Pakistan have since reconciled and are now officially on friendly terms, the conflict described above will no doubt shape the calculations of the Revolutionary Guards.
Iran provoked the U.S. into launching a mission to protect Hormuz and started mining the Strait, but President Trump responded by warning Iran “not to try.”[ing] CNN detailed the resulting dilemma for the United States in an article titled “Tough Election Facing the Trump Administration: Economic Collapse or Navy Collapse?” Therefore, Pakistan’s escort mission, as explained in this analysis, could be a way for the US to cleverly turn the tables and, in turn, put Iran in a dilemma.
To be clear, Pakistan has its own reasons for launching Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr, particularly to restore parts of its maritime energy supply chain to avert a major fuel crisis that the establishment fears could be exploited by Afghan, Indian, and/or domestic terrorists. Still, that escort mission is precisely what advances US interests against Iran, but few realize this as Pakistan’s AI-backed fake videos have virally manipulated the public into thinking it is India that is actually advancing them.
