Amid growing speculation about new versions of the DeepSeek AI model, several other Chinese tech companies have released their own generative artificial intelligence models in the past few weeks. They range from Alibaba’s Qwen 3.5 to ByteDance’s video generation Seedance 2.0. But it’s MiniMax, which just went public in Hong Kong in January, that has caught the attention of AI users and UBS stock analysts. In mid-February, the company released the M2.5 model, which has performance comparable to Claude’s latest Opus 4.6 at a lower price. According to OpenRouter data, this has led to a rapid increase in developers choosing the MiniMax M2.5 over DeepSeek’s current V3.2 model or the US company’s model. UBS analysts say MiniMax’s AI usage is already one-third that of Anthropic’s Claude, and one-tenth the price, according to data from a mid-February report. The investment bank recently launched coverage on Chinese stocks with a buy rating and a price target of HK$1,000 ($127.83). This was up more than 30% from the HK$763.50 the Shanghai-based company traded at on Friday afternoon. “We are positive about MiniMax’s potential upside in gaining share in the global enterprise market,” UBS analysts said. They added that what sets the Chinese company apart is its suite of AI tools that lead not only in text generation but also video generation, audio generation like ElevenLab, and AI collaboration. This is different from Zhipu, which also went public in Hong Kong in January. The latest GLM 5.0 model focuses on coding. Rival Chinese startup Moonshot, which released the popular Kimi 2.5 model in late January, remains privately held and focuses more on coding and task completion by agents than on audiovisual production. 2025 Global Shock Expectations for the new DeepSeek model increased around the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday ending on February 23rd. The Chinese startup’s release of the model ahead of the same holiday last year shocked global markets with how far China’s generative AI capabilities had advanced despite US chip regulations. This year, Chinese internet companies Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu and ByteDance used the Lunar New Year to attract local consumers, and China’s AI race shifted to user applications. After integrating their AI model (DeepSeek) with existing apps and services such as e-commerce, the companies spent hundreds of millions of US dollars on Red Packet promotions. “In the short term, we believe this will accelerate the adoption of AI among users, especially at lower tiers. [less developed Chinese] “UBS China Internet Services Analysts said in their China AI Report on February 23, just after the holidays, that China is driving the use of more AI and agent features, such as image and video generation, quick commerce, and other transaction bookings within AI-native apps.” Of the stocks reviewed, only MiniMax was focused on AI models from the outset, UBS said. “While the ongoing AI disruption saga will increase sentiment towards model providers, we believe investors will be wary of vertical platform and application companies,” UBS said. Analysts said, “We have recently begun coverage on MiniMax and believe the company is well-positioned to benefit from AI tailwinds in China and global markets.” In an optimistic scenario, MiniMax’s segment revenue could be $41 billion, and video generation could present an approximately $5 billion revenue opportunity for MiniMax, the report said. But if MiniMax’s AI leadership grows faster than current expectations, the stock could rise further, reaching at least HK$1,380, UBS analysts said in a report launching their investigative coverage of the company (CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report).
