In this exclusive series on Inman, Windermere Chief Economist Jeff Tucker looks at the numbers that matter most, including the White House’s MBS plan and recent payroll numbers.
Bond markets were shaken last week by breaking news from the Trump administration, including new moves by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage-backed securities. Here’s a breakdown of what we know so far and what it means for homebuyers and sellers.
$200 billion in mortgage-backed securities
2026 is already proving to be a busy year of news for the housing market, with the first known figure being $200 billion. This is the total amount of mortgage-backed securities that President Trump announced on January 8th that he was directing members of the House of Representatives to purchase with the goal of lowering mortgage rates.
Larger new mortgage buyers tend to bid higher on price, which in the case of bonds means lower interest rates.
Mortgage rates have been unusually high compared to benchmark 10-year Treasury rates for the past three years, but have gradually narrowed to normal ranges, and clearly this buying spree by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will accelerate the process of spread compression.
The market is taking this announcement very seriously.
6.06% — lowest mortgage rate reported in nearly three years.
In the first day of trading after President Trump’s announcement, mortgage rates fell by 15 basis points to 6.06%, the second highest figure currently known. This is the average 30-year mortgage rate published by Mortgage News Daily on Friday, January 9th, and is the lowest mortgage rate reported by the company in nearly three years.
Trading is unusually volatile right now, and there are still a lot of unanswered questions about this new program, but it’s definitely starting to move the market in the short term, and I think some highly qualified buyers and sellers who are starting to see mortgage rates in the 5% range will be more willing to trade this spring.
56,000 jobs were lost during the fourth quarter.
Another number you should know right now is 56,000. This is the net number of jobs lost in the fourth quarter of 2025 and represents a one-year cap on the slowdown and eventual contraction in payrolls in the U.S. economy.
Now, other data shows that economic activity held steady in the fourth quarter, and while this is not the start of a recession, slowing job growth could help explain why home purchases were disappointing in the fourth quarter, even though mortgage rates were lower than they were in late 2024.
Speaking of housing, the housing market ended 2025 still slightly short of the key benchmark I’ve been watching: the moment when available inventory returns to pre-pandemic 2019 levels. This year ended with just under 1 million active listings, compared to just over 1 million on the eve of the coronavirus pandemic six years ago.
Although this is still a significant increase from this time last year, the year-on-year property growth trend has clearly slowed throughout 2025. This helps explain why 2025 was a year of cooling and normalization, but not of fire sales and unsold homes.
On the contrary, it is a market that has made significant progress towards normalization and foresees a healthy and balanced market for the year ahead.
Jeff Tucker is principal economist at Windermere Real Estate in Seattle, Washington. Connect with him on X or Facebook.
