Broker Zach Kennedy shares why 2026 will be the year new real estate agents win big by trading flash and fundamentals.
For the past six years, real estate has been in a state of flux. Historically low interest rates and high volumes have created a market where demand often exceeds skill. It became easier to close deals and the trading volume covered many mistakes.
That period is over.
As interest rates rose and trading slowed, many existing agents suffered whiplash. The systems and habits that worked in easy markets no longer produce results. But agents who have been licensed in the last three to five years are in a different time.
They are unencumbered by outdated habits and assumptions formed in an unusually permissive market. The move reflects a turning point in professional baseball.
When the Oakland Athletics adopted sabermetrics in the early 2000s, they couldn’t match the New York Yankees’ $125 million annual salary.
So they changed the way they measured wins. Rather than paying for reputation, they focused on specific behaviors that caused them to lose points.
5 reasons why new agents will have an advantage in 2026
In 2026, new real estate agents will face similar challenges. This is why focusing on fundamentals gives emerging agents an advantage in Moneyball.
1. You can’t (and shouldn’t) compete on budget.
Top producers have built an advantage over time through high-volume production and repeat business. Their marketing spend is a byproduct of their success, not the cause of their success.
New agents trying to match ad budgets and team infrastructure early often end up spending money before they understand where the real revenue is going to come from.
The Oakland Athletics avoided this mistake by identifying undervalued actions that led to wins without requiring a star player’s salary.
For agents, this means shifting their focus from “getting noticed” to intentionally building opportunities. Work should focus on activities that generate conversation, rather than trying to appear established before the business exists.
2. Tradition often obscures reality
Baseball’s scouting culture relied on intuition and assumptions about what a winning player “should” look like. There is a similar tradition in real estate.
New agents are often told that cold calls and door knocking are the secret to success. That’s simply because those methods have always been used.
A clearer approach starts with understanding the actual structure of your business. Every real estate business operates through three core functions:
Marketing creates opportunities Sales transforms opportunities Operations manages opportunities
Once you understand this framework, problems will no longer feel like random occurrences. A lack of leads is the result of a marketing problem. Low conversions are the result of sales problems.
This self-diagnostic feature is very important for agents that cannot tolerate errors.
3. Appearance has not improved.
The A’s squad was unimpressive by traditional standards, and despite improved results there was growing skepticism.
New agents face similar pressure to appear successful early on through sophisticated branding and visible busyness. These signals can create the illusion of momentum without producing an actual closing price.
Marketing shouldn’t exist to impress your co-workers. It should exist to create opportunities.
The most reliable approach is content that consistently demonstrates value across four areas: listing, community, expertise, and branding.
This builds the familiarity and trust needed to keep sales conversations from starting coldly.
4. Control is more important than access
The Athletics had to succeed within a system built to favor wealthier teams. Today, real estate agents face a similar reality: large platforms influence consumers’ home searches.
These platforms provide access to opportunities, but relying entirely on borrowed attention poses risks. Sustainable businesses are built on systems such as agent-managed marketing messages, sales processes, and operational support.
This requires using tools that support a clear strategy, rather than outsourcing the strategy itself.
5. Measuring movement relative to effort
The Moneyball strategy was not immediately validated. Results are only achieved with consistency. Sales increase when agents measure movement, not just effort.
All prospects go through the same progression: conversation, appointment, client, contract, closing. Tracking that movement will highlight where improvement is most important. Operations exist to support this flow, reducing friction rather than adding complexity.
In 2026, as the market stabilizes, flash will become less important than fundamentals.
Successful agents are not the biggest or loudest agents. They will be the ones who understand how opportunities are created, transformed and managed.
The Oakland Athletics didn’t win by trying to outspend the Yankees. They changed the game and won. Emerging agents who focus on these fundamentals are positioned to punch above their weight at a level the industry hasn’t seen in years.
Zac Kennedy is a licensed broker with RealtySouth, serving buyers, sellers, and agents throughout the Birmingham-Hoover, Alabama metro area. Connect with him on Instagram and LinkedIn.
