Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) after the opening bell rings on January 2, 2026 in New York.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Stock markets showed little reaction to President Donald Trump’s unusual actions in Venezuela, as investors bet that the attack and the detention of leader Nicolás Maduro would not lead to a larger geopolitical conflict.
In premarket trading on Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been almost flat recently.
Energy stocks helped push prices higher as traders predicted a takeover of Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, would benefit oil and gas companies. Chevron, which already has an established presence in the country, rose more than 7%. ExxonMobil stock rose more than 4%.
Historically, geopolitical shocks rarely have a lasting impact on stock markets. And furthermore, given President Trump’s previous criticism of the conflicts provoked in Iran and Afghanistan, investors do not expect the attacks to escalate further. Moreover, the development of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is seen as a long-term story with little immediate market impact.
“Volatility is to be expected as Venezuela news dominates the headlines, but the overall market seems relatively unfazed by what has happened so far,” said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “The swift resolution with little threat of escalation has so far calmed investors.”
The incident put other countries on high alert. One analyst said Denmark was in “full crisis mode” after President Trump set his sights on Greenland after the attack. Russia’s reaction to President Maduro’s ouster has been cautious.
Still, some agreed that significant geopolitical events are unlikely to move the market significantly. Evercore ISI’s Matthew Ax pointed out over the weekend that Venezuela’s current oil exports are low and that efforts to develop the country’s infrastructure will have long-term benefits. He added that Trump’s threats should instead be taken as a negotiating tactic.
“President Trump’s comments regarding the United States’ management of Venezuela have received a lot of attention, but we do not expect the United States to take immediate large-scale military action,” Aksu said. “Rather, we interpret this as a colorful metaphor and negotiation tactic aimed at maintaining pressure on the remnants of the Maduro regime to voluntarily cede power.”
