Tourists will visit the “Monkey King” Famous Lake Ushu Waterfall on October 5, 2025, during a week’s public holiday.
VCG | Visual China Group | Getty Images
BEIJING – The World Bank on Tuesday raised China’s 2025 growth forecasts as part of an overall boost to overall forecasts for East Asia and the Pacific after a summer when US tariff-led uncertainty shook the world economy.
The World Bank currently forecasts China’s economy to expand by 4.8% compared to the 4% forecast in April. The new forecasts are close to China’s official target of growth of around 5% of gross domestic product in 2025.
Economists did not provide specific reasons for changes in forecasts from April, but noted that China’s economy is benefiting from government support that could decline next year.
Trade tensions between China and the US escalated in April, with the two countries temporarily sending tariffs on Chinese imports to more than 100% before they reached a trade ceasefire. For now, US tariffs on China are 57.6%, more than double where they were at the beginning of the year.
China has stepped up its stimulus packages in late 2024, maintaining its targeted consumer trade program this year and supporting retail sales. The country’s exports, the main driver of its growth, have continued to increase so far. Shipments to Southeast Asia and Europe are because a sharp decline in exports to US companies that increase orders ahead of higher tariffs has helped support China’s exports.
The growth in exports helped China offset the ongoing real estate slump and lukewarm water drugs on domestic growth. However, the momentum is expected to slow down.
The World Bank predicts that China’s GDP growth will be facilitated by 4.2% in 2026. This is because export growth is slow. Economists also expect Beijing to lower stimulus packages to prevent public debt levels from rising quickly, but China’s overall economic growth will be slower compared to the rapid expansion of the past few years.
China’s retail sales rose just 3.4% in August from a year ago, losing analysts’ expectations. Real estate investments have declined further, falling 12.9% for the first eight months of the year, but 12% for the first seven months.
Preliminary figures for the eight-day “Golden Week” holiday, closing Wednesday, pointed to slower consumer spending.
During the October 1-5 period, domestic passenger travel on the day rose 5.4% year-on-year to 296 million over the October 1-5 period, much later than the 7.9% seen on the May 1-5 public holidays, Nomura’s chief Chinese economist Ting Lu said in his report on Monday, citing official data.
“The actual consumption growth could be even weaker than the data suggests,” Lu said this year’s Golden Week is usually a combination of two public holidays due to the agricultural calendar.
October 1st is Chinese National Day, and the traditional mid-May festival fell on October 6th this year on September 17th last year. As a result, China’s Golden Week was from October 1st to 8th this year, and from October 1st to 7th last year.
The economist pointed out that one in seven young people in China is unemployed, and the country faces challenges from technological disruption and aging. The World Bank also said that Chinese startups will only quadruple their jobs compared to seven times the US, and that the differentiator is the presence of state-owned enterprises in China and North America.
According to World Bank estimates, a decline in China’s GDP by 1 percentage point would reduce the remaining growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific by 0.3 percentage points. According to the World Bank, China’s GDP upgrades are expected to expand the region by 4.8% this year, with a forecast of 4% this year.
In June, the World Bank reduced its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.3%. This is primarily due to trade uncertainty, the slowest expansion since 2008, excluding global recession.
