Trump’s “Mission Accomplished” after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear development sites is already not aging well. Trump was apparently looking forward to a repeat of the ego high he got after launching his Liberation Day “shock and awe” tariffs: “I am telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass.”
The fact that (reported by Associated Press just now, as of 5:20 AM EDT) Fordow is again under attack proved that the initial strike was not “successful” even in US terms:
Iran’s underground facility at Fordo again attacked, Iranian state TV says
Iran’s underground enrichment site at Fordo was again attacked Monday, Iranian state television reported.
The report, also carried by other Iranian media, offered no word on damage, nor who launched the assault.
However, Israel has been conducted airstrikes throughout the day in Iran.
BBC tells us 6:55 AM EDT) that Iranian media now says the strike came from Israel, but I don’t yet see a corresponding story at PressTV or Tasnim.
This repeat attack given widespread expert assessments that nothing of importance was in the three nuclear sites is a bizarre, obsessive-looking spectacle.
We’ll return to our original version of this post and will provide updates in comments. This action, if confirmed, looks like a desperate US effort to assert that it dominates Iran when nothing of the kind has happened and even if these salvos had been winners in narrow terms, they have not impeded Iran’s strikes on Israel.
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As we’ll discuss, his fantasy that this would be a one-and-done operation has already backfired spectacularly. Israel no doubt hoped this attack would draw the US in deeper, and that trajectory seems baked in.
But events are not playing out according to Israel’s plan. The immediate result was a fierce attack by Iran, with evidence bleeding out despite Israel’s censors that damage to Israel is serious and mounting. The Washington Post reported as of about four days ago that Israel only had enough air defense missiles to last ten to twelve days on then-current trajectories (note the IDF denied these reports). Perhaps Israel will husband them, but that means more damage in the meantime. As we will discuss later in this post, the Western and even Israeli media is admitting to destruction in the latest wave of attacks.
So Israeli air defenses are being degraded even as the Trump Administration is busy flogging its claims to have “obliterated” the three nuclear sites. As we pointed out yesterday, it appears that nothing or virtually nothing of much import remained in them; that has been reconfirmed longer-form by Scott Ritter in a Sunday interview with Judge Napolitano. So the Trump Administration media high is going to get in the way of having to admit that Iran is undeterred and it will have to Do Something More. The time it takes for this reality to penetrate the Administration’s own messaging fog machine and then figure out how to change the propaganda spin so as not to finesse the failure of the initial attack will add days to the timetable, when every day of delay means more infrastructure loss in Israel.
Of course, a false flag attack in the US or on a US base overseas could dramatically change the equation. But the possibility of a false flag has so often been discussed that a much of the war-opposed MAGA base may be immune to the claim that Iran dunnit. After all, 20% believe that 9/11 was staged by the government.
In the meantime, Trump is making maximalist claims and demands, undercutting top members of his security team. Recall after the June 13 Israel attacks, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio maintained Israel had engaged in “unilateral action“. But less than 24 hours later, Trump was loudly taking credit for them. He soon escalated to demanding that Iran make an unconditional surrender.
Over the weekend, as was picked up by many media outlets (including a full page wide banner headline in Bloomberg), Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth dutifully maintained that he US objective had been to end Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability. See for instance in The Hill: Hegseth says ‘Iran has a choice,’ US not seeking regime change.
Today from Daily Mail in Trump reveals where most of ‘monumental damage’ was done in Iran nuclear ‘obliteration’ as he calls for regime change:
The US president wrote on his Truth Social page that satellite images he obtained showed the Iranian nuclear facilities were ‘obliterated,’ and noted that the most damage ‘took place far below ground level.’
‘Bullseye!!!’ he declared, hours after he suggested Iran’s current regime ‘is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN.’
‘Why wouldn’t there be a regime change,’ Trump asked, rhetorically – even though he and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had earlier urged Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini to ‘return to the negotiating table as soon as possible.
In a talk with George Galloway, Colonel Douglas Macgregor summed up the current US position:
Even though this [attack] had been rehearsed for innumerable times over many years, even though they’d rehearsed it and practiced it, what they ultimately did was harm nothing and accomplish nothing. They hit the equivalent of empty buildings, empty targets and then after doing so he
announced that he [Trump] was now ready for peace which is the ultimate expression of self-delusion…
We don’t understand what we’ve walked into because we’re not informed. We still think this is 1991.
Listen to the rhetoric: “I’m ready for peace now. We’ve made our point. We hope the Iranians understand us and will make peace.”
Have you lost your mind?
And the Western media is starting to cast doubts on the extent of US success in its weekend Iran bombing, even narrowly defined (as in the destruction of the sites). For instance:
Satellites show damage to Iran’s nuclear program, but experts say it’s not destroyed NPR
The Three Unknowns After the U.S. Strike on Iran New York Times
Contrast the giddy, swaggering posture of the Administration with evidence that Israel is taking body blows, particularly in the retaliatory strike after the US hit Iran. From Times of Israel in 86 wounded by Iranian missile attacks on Israel after US strikes 3 Iran nuclear sites:
An Iranian ballistic missile barrage injured dozens of people in Israel on Sunday morning as nearly 30 projectiles targeted the country, causing widespread destruction to residential areas in Tel Aviv and the central town of Ness Ziona.
An air defense interceptor, meanwhile, malfunctioned and impacted the northern city of Haifa, causing damage and slightly wounding three people. No sirens had sounded in the city during the incident….
The first salvo consisted of at least 22 missiles, and the second was made up of five, according to IDF assessments.
See also:
That was as of yesterday. FirstPost as of now (5:40 AM) has a live stream of new attacks in Israel:
I do wonder, now beyond the Indian media, why videos giving the impression that Israel is now taking serious damage are public, including from foreign newscasters filming in Israel. If the military censors have now decided images of destruction will elicit sympathy, they are deranged.
Or perhaps it is worldwide opposition that has emboldened at least non-US outlets to show this part of the picture. See for instance from the BBC: US strikes on Iran trigger protests internationally
Perhaps we will be proven incorrect, but our belief is the US has gotten itself so badly knotted up it its narrative fantasies that it will take longer than it ought to to recognize that Israel is in serious trouble. It’s hard to see how the US fails then to try to come to the rescue….unless it achieves a new Mission Impossible and keeps the American public in the dark about Israel’s increasingly sorry state.
In the meantime, Iran is also moving the pieces in place so as to be able to close the Strait of Hormuz. As we indicated, this is its best escalatory move if it feels it must go beyond doing a mini-Gaza to Israel. One assumes the very cautious Iranian leadership recognizes that attacking a US base would give the uber-hawks the bloody shirt they need to attempt the folly of a full-bore war with Iran. There is no way the US could win, as our failure to subdue the Houthis illustrates. Many military experts have pointed out that the only way ex nukes is to invade and occupy Iran, and that is well beyond current US capabilities.
As we described yesterday, the Iranian parliament has approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, but it is not the ultimate decider. From PressTV:
In a decisive response to the US aggression against Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities, the Iranian parliament has voted to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
A senior Iranian lawmaker, Esmaeil Kowsari, said on Sunday that the Majlis (Iranian parliament) has agreed to close the key artery for global energy trade in response to the American aggression and the silence of the international community.
“The parliament has come to the conclusion that it should close the Hormuz Strait, but the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council,” Kowsari stated.
Mind you, one never knows the veracity of what comes from Trump Administration spokes-critters, but this reaction by Vance may demonstrate that the US deems a closure of the Strait of Hormuz to be an impossible action:
Kristen Welker: “If Iran disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz… Would that be a red line for the United States?”
Vice President Vance: “Our biggest red line is the Iranian nuclear weapons program… [If they disrupt the Strait of Hormuz] I think that would be suicidal,… pic.twitter.com/0mWMI81XNt
— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) June 22, 2025
The argument made by many, backing the Vance view, is that Iran would not dare hurt its biggest oil buyer, China. But not everyone is so chill:
“US asks China to stop Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz”
I genuinely don’t know if this is hubris, stupidity, or a heady combination of the two 😵💫 pic.twitter.com/Ec2sqCMgPK
— Carlos (@agent_of_change) June 23, 2025
And flip side is that if Iran were defeated, China would surely lose that supply permanently, or at least as fully as the US and its allies could make happen. Plus China also has incentives to support Iran so as to drain US capabilities so as to make it unrealistic for them to attempt military action by China.
This is admittedly a boosterist take, but it’s not entirely wrong. Perhaps readers have insight as to how quickly China might be able to stabilize if it lost Iranian oil supplies:
Who is hurt the most by closing the Strait of Hormuz? pic.twitter.com/rURORR36Jr
— Ryan Dawson (@RyLiberty) June 23, 2025
Note that Goldman Sachs, in a new forecast publicized at OilPrice, has Brent crude rising to as high as $110 and then settling to $95 in the fourth quarter. But its scenario seems a bit cheery:
The investment bank said this price could materialize if oil flows via the vital chokepoint were cut by half for a month and remained 10% lower than normal over the next 11 months.
My best guess would be a much tighter initial constriction. What tank operator is going to send vessels through, given the certainty that there will be no insurance? And then the blowback might lead to big changes in what the US side accepts. Or at least that would be the Iran and friends demand.
A new Nikkei report describes Asian exposure:
Asia’s dependence on oil and gas from the Middle East makes it highly vulnerable to any closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas shipments that is now in Iran’s crosshairs….
Asian economies would be hugely affected by a closure, given their dependence on what comes through the waterway, analysts said. For crude oil shipments, the region receives 80% of the nearly 15 million barrels per day of oil that transits through the strait.
“Asia would be most impacted by the lack of crude exports,” analysts at Rystad Energy said.
And comic relief, Kaja Kallas again playing barking chihuahua:
Foreign ministers remain focused on a diplomatic solution, but concerns about the war escalating are high.
Any Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be extremely dangerous.
My doorstep ahead of today’s Foreign Affairs Council ↓ pic.twitter.com/VeHwCyxdL4
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) June 23, 2025
Reuters reported yesterday that Maersk was still sending ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Reader Acacia later found a Bloomberg report of a first sign of concern. From Bloomberg in Two Supertankers U-Turn in Strait of Hormuz After US Strikes:
Ships’ electronics and signals have increasingly been jammed in the Persian Gulf since Israeli airstrikes on June 13, but the two vessels’ arrivals — and subsequent turnarounds — have the hallmarks of normal tanker movements.
Even with jamming and vessels attempting to sail further from the Iranian coast, oil and gas tankers have been moving through the strait after the US strikes. The turning oil carriers offer the first signs of re-routing.
The other US hope, as Trump has made all too clear, is regime change. But the best chance for that was in the immediate wake of the initial attack. Nothing even remotely like an uprising occurred. The more the US and Israel shell Iran, the more its citizens will rally around the nation. Yes, Israel may keep up terrorist attacks using internal networks. But to a degree, that will be a wasting asset as some of those networks get burned in the course of executing missions.
And Israel is not the only party with some hacking chops:
Israel urges citizens to turn off home cameras as Iran hacks surveillance systems
– Home security cameras with weak passwords are easy targets for hackershttps://t.co/AoDys80Ylc pic.twitter.com/Qt6NAY2FgK
— TechSpot (@TechSpot) June 22, 2025
We continue to think that the most likely escalation against Iran would be large and largely indiscriminate attacks on Tehran to effect its regime change fantasy. That is the tactic Israel used against Beirut to bring Hezbollah to heel. So far, Israel keeping up the pretense that it is hitting kinda-sorta military targets. But pray tell, how does bombing a prison qualify? From France 24, in a live blog update in the hour before posting time:
Israel says it struck targets in Tehran, including prison housing Islamic Republic opponents
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military was carrying out strikes on Tehran, including on the Evin Prison, which he said holds political prisoners and opponents of the Islamic Republic.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar had earlier shared footage of the prison being targeted on his X account and wrote “long live freedom” in Spanish.
We warned Iran time and again: stop targeting civilians!
They continued, including this morning.
Our response:
Viva la libertad, carajo!@JMilei pic.twitter.com/pVdlWvCDqQ
— Gideon Sa’ar | גדעון סער (@gidonsaar) June 23, 2025
So as Lambert would say, this is an overly dynamic situation, made more so by Trump’s detachment from reality. Stay tuned.
