The American Council of Immigration does not approve or oppose candidates for elected offices. We aim to provide an analysis of the impact of elections on the US immigration system.
Karen Aho, Robin Rand, Anna Sheperson
As the Trump administration stepped up its efforts to deport millions of migrants this year, it is important to understand the contributions that immigrants will contribute to our economy and social welfare.
The American Community Survey of the U.S. Immigration Council’s annual analysis updated national and state-level data from the Council’s Map The Impact Tool, finding that in 2023, one in 47.8 million Americans are immigrants. This is an increase of 6.8% since 2018.
Immigration accounted for 14.3% of the population in 2023, but almost two-fifths of the country’s five-year population growth. That’s because the US-born population, suffering from poor fertility and elderly masses, has grown at just 1.7%. This shows how important immigration is to the US population.
In fact, without immigrants, the populations of New York, Connecticut and Maryland would have declined, while the populations of California, Illinois, Louisiana and West Virginia would have declined by even greater margins. If the state loses its residents, it risks losing political representation, government funds, workers and taxpayers. This is important for a healthy economy.
Immigration helps offset America’s grey
America is facing an aging crisis. The number of Americans over the age of 65 is expected to reach 80 million by 2040, up 30% in just 20 years, and the number of people over the age of 84 more than doubled over the same period to reach 15 million.
Meanwhile, the share of working-age Americans needed to support them has declined, especially among US-borns. The share of US-borns between the ages of 16 and 64 has decreased from 61.7% in 2018 to 60.9% in 2023. In contrast, in 2023, 77.1% of immigrants, or 36.9 million, were between the ages of 16 and 64.
As more Americans choose to age at home, home health aides are already in extreme supply shortages. By 2032, the US is expected to have 4.6 million home workers, leaving millions of Americans without the need for the care they need. Without immigrants, the situation is far more disastrous.
In 2023, immigrants accounted for 28.4% of the nation’s health aides (including home health aides, nursing assistants, etc.) and nurses. There is already a shortage, and some states are getting worse if migrant workers are deported. In Hawaii, the immigration share of health aides has increased from 41.4% in 2018 to 50.9% in 2023. In Georgia, nurse immigration share rose from 10.9% to 15.7%.
Immigration tax contributions
Immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, help businesses fill vacant positions by retirees, and their taxes help fund the government social programs on which those retirees rely.
In 2023, 24.7% of immigrants were undocumented, and 89.4% of undocumented immigrants were between the ages of 16 and 64.
Undocumented immigration in essential industries
Undocumented migrant workers play a very important role in key industries (thinking food and housing) that are plagued by labor shortages.
For example, in agriculture where labor shortages continue to risk production, 15.1% of total workers in 2023 were undocumented, and many of the agricultural workers, including many of the physically challenging jobs such as Grades and Salter (37.0% undocumented), and other agricultural workers, including crop workers (28.9% undocumented).
The construction industry, which needs nearly half a million new workers this year to meet demand, is already dependent on 1.6 million undocumented migrant workers, which is 14.1% of the 2023 workforce.
As most restaurants and hotels continue to report shortages in staffing, the hospitality industry employs 1.1 million undocumented immigrants, accounting for 7.6% of the workforce.
Graphic: Number and percentage of undocumented migrant workers in 2023
https://www.datawrapper.de/_/lznje/?v=2
Contributions of refugees and TPS holders
Currently, undocumented immigrants are targeting large-scale deportation, but refugees and temporary protected statuses (TPS) are also caught up in the Trump administration’s indiscriminate attacks.
On his first day in office, President Trump tried to stop refugees from enrolling through an executive order. A few weeks later, the Department of Homeland Security announced the cancellation of TPS deportation protections for Haitians and Venezuelans. Like undocumented immigrants, these efforts ignore the important contributions these individuals make to the US economy and their communities.
In 2023, refugees accounted for 4.6% of the migrant population. Of these 2.2 million refugees, most have been here for many years. 85.5% were naturalized citizens. Refugees and Asilis usually cost federal money for the first few months of resettlement, but their economic contributions ultimately generate tens of millions of dollars in tax revenue at government at all levels. In 2023, refugees paid a total of $31.2 billion in federal, state and local taxes, and paid the community $83.8 billion in spending on housing, food and supplies.
The same applies to TPS holders. TPS holders have temporary protections to stay and work in the United States while their homeland is considered unsafe due to natural disasters or armed conflicts. Analyzing only 2023 estimates of all eligible TPS holders reveals the important contributions this group is making.
Of the 696,900 US TPS holders, 95.5% were employed that year. They paid $5.2 billion in taxes and held $16.9 billion in payout. About a third of all TPS holders lived in Florida, followed by Texas, California and New York. In Florida alone, TPS holders have paid $485.9 million in state and local taxes and money that help fund education, infrastructure and other critical services.
Threatening “outsiders” can even blow crowds and win votes, but in addition to deporting immigrants and indecent costs on taxpayers, limiting immigrants is nothing to help the average Americans worried about egg prices or caring for their loved ones. As this and many years of independent research confirm, immigrants not only have lower crime rates than US-borns, but are also essential to providing the food, housing and health care that all Americans need.
Submitted: Population growth, taxes
