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The German federal election on Sunday not only determines the future of Europe’s biggest economy, but also tackles existential issues after the US administration revealed that US security guarantees will not last “forever.” Therefore, the outlook for the entire continent will also be determined.
Prime Minister Olaf Scholz’s coalition government collapsed in November amid heated debate on how to deal with a shortage of around 17 billion euros in the 2025 budget.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the centrally right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is at the forefront of becoming the next German leader. His party is leading the polls and is poised to win around 30% of the votes.
A far-right alternative to Germany (AFD) under investigation by the country’s intelligence agency on potential anti-democratic trends is to secure a record of 20% of national votes. Scholtz’s Social Democrats (SPD), who came just first in 2021, is third.
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The option to form the next German government may range from how many of the three minor parties survive, or the number of votes voting for a fringe party that is not represented in Parliament.
The liberal Liberal Democrats (FDP) and two left-wing parties, Die Linke and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), are fighting to secure at least 5% of the votes needed to enter the Vandestag.
The more votes sent to parties not represented by Congress, the easier it is for the larger parties to win each vote, forming a two-party coalition. If one or more small parties are stuck in their seats, a three-party coalition may be required to form a government.
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A vote will take place on Sunday as Germany tackles the impact of reducing its economic activity for the second year in a row. Each party is committed to driving economic recovery and offers a completely different remedy on how it can be done.
Immigration has been featured prominently in election campaigns after a series of deadly attacks by immigrants. The AFD, which takes the hard work of immigration, is supported by growing international support, including X’s owner and Keat Trump’s advisor Elon Musk.
Who are the main political parties and what are their important policies?
The decline in popularity of mainstream German parties has fueled the rise of the AFD. This will likely lead to a more hostile parliament.
The far-right party is expected to become the second largest unit in postwar history, the Bundesag. All other major political parties ruled out combinations with the AFD. US Vice President JD Vance formed the so-called firewall that he criticized at the Munich Security Conference last week.
Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU)
According to opinions, Merz’s Christian Democrats are in the most powerful position to head for Sunday’s election. The parties plan to keep corporate taxes at a 25% cap, eliminate income tax surcharges for top-income earners, and introduce permanent border controls.
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Social Democrats (SPD)
The SPD pledges a commitment to higher taxes on the wealthy, a minimum wage of 15 euros and a stable pension. Last year, Scholz proposed an EUR 10 billion infrastructure investment fund to overhaul the country’s neglected infrastructure, including railways struggling as part of the “new industrial agenda.” He also seeks subsidies “made in Germany” to encourage corporate investment.
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green
Greens makes sustainable investment a key policy in its campaign and promotes incentives to accelerate Germany’s transition from fossil fuels. The party is also keen to ease the country’s debt brakes as it calls for “sensible” changes to the rules.
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German Alternative (AFD)
Founded in 2013 in protest of Greek bailout during the eurozone crisis, the AFD has been pivoting to the extreme right in recent years, urging even the rassembly of Marine Le Pen to avoid the party. Masu.
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Other parties
The other three political parties are important to the post-federal election political landscape in Germany if they pass a minimum threshold of 5 percent or secure enough votes to win three direct orders.
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Essential reading of candidates and policies
How does election work?
This is the first time that the number of MPs will close with 630 after the parliament has grown bloated with more than 700 members in the last two elections. The party has earned a good share of the provincial proportional party vote (Zweitstimme).
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The German electoral system combines proportional expression with aspects of the first pass system, with 299 seats directly linked to the local constituency. For parties who have acquired three of these direct missions, the 5% threshold is exempt.
What happens after the voting ends?
The preliminary outcome expected on Sunday night will be a good early indicator of the outcome of the vote.
Once the composition of Congress is known, the parties will participate in coalition consultations, which often last for several months. Scholz’s government officially took office in December 2021. This is two and a half months after the election.
The parties forming the next German government must unite behind a common platform, policy priorities and leadership structure. Disagreements regarding how to address shortages in the 2025 budget are the main reason for the Scholz government’s breakdown, with possible coalitions between the SPD and/or CDU/CSU overcoming financial constraints The method is unknown.
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An essential reading of German politics and history
Designed by Carolina Vargas. Data visualization with Jonathan Vincent and Martin Stabe
