By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, 138 Captains Dr, West Babylon US-NY, Suffolk, New York, United States. “Two cuts of the same bird. Loaded with mimicry: Carolina Wren (song and call), American Crow, Blue Jay, Red-bellied Woodpecker, House Finch (call), Killdeer, Northern Flicker, Monk Parakeet, Tree Swallow, American Robin (call), Northern Cardinal, Eastern Phoebe, Red-tailed Hawk, Red-winged Blackbird, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Eastern Towhee, and possibly a few others of borderline quality.” Over seven minutes! (There are two other Mockingbird recordings from the same location. Apparently 138 Captains Dr, West Babylon is a Mimus polyglottos hotbed!
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In Case You Might Miss…
Trump transition.
Boeing Whistleblower: 42 defective rudders go missing; calls for breakup grow.
Congo mystery disease
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Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Biden Administration
“Biden officials race to help stabilize Syria after regime collapse” [WaPo]. • “Race” in a headline is always a tell that no matter what the organic causes of the race are, the article will not cover them.
Trump Transition
“Trump Taps Fiserv’s Bisignano for Social Security Administration” [Bloomberg]. “If confirmed by the Senate, Bisignano would head an agency responsible for running the Social Security program, a retirement trust fund that faces a budget shortfall and that is politically risky to change because older Americans who benefit from those payments make up a crucial bloc of voters…. A nonpartisan budget watchdog [The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget] in October estimated that Trump’s second-term agenda would drive the program to insolvency three years earlier and slash benefits by nearly a third. The group cited proposals including plans to deport unauthorized immigrants who now pay into Social Security, end taxes on overtime and tips, and end taxation of Social Security benefits. All those measures would shrink revenue for the trust fund, the group said. During the campaign, Trump pledged to eliminate taxes on Social Security payments for seniors, which would benefit some elderly Americans but strain future benefits for those yet to retire.” • But Federal taxes don’t fund Federal spending…
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: H5N1
“‘Geese falling out of the sky’: Avian flu begins to infect birds in the KC metro” [KCTV5]. “As calls continue to roll in about geese that have fallen out of the sky, wildlife officials have warned residents in the Kansas City metro that these birds show signs of avian flu. Operation Wildlife, a Linwood-based wildlife rehab, announced on Friday, Dec. 6, that avian influenza has been confirmed to be in the Kansas City metro area. With an increase in the number of geese due to migration, rescuers have seen an uptick in calls about ‘geese falling out of the sky.’ Organization leaders noted that the majority of these calls have been related to snow geese – about 40 in the past 3 days.” • Is this normal during migrations, and we’re only hearing about it now?
Transmission: Congo Mystery Disease
“‘Disease X’ Outbreak Widens as UN Sends Health Team to Congo” [Bloomberg]. “Malaria is common in the area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases, the United Nations health agency said. ‘Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.’” • “Disease X” is a really unfortunate label, previously reserved by the NIH (plus WEF, CEPI, and the EcoHealth Alliance) for whatever disease sparks the next pandemic (quite possibly bird flu). Whatever this disease is, it’s not that, or hasn’t been shown to be.
Maskstravaganza
Yes, Virginia, respirators do trap viruses:
If you are thinking, that’s just salt, not viruses, not to worry. Scientists have tested N95s using real viruses using an international standard test called Viral Filtration Efficency (VFE). N95s filter viruses extremely well. https://t.co/M9jVI6bloA
— Gerard Hughes ( @ghhughes@zeroes.ca ) (@ghhughes) December 7, 2024
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Stocking stuffer:
FYI Enovid is now NoWonder
No wonder you couldn’t find it 😝
Carry on. This is only for the nasal-cleansing hedge-betting viral vigilantes. pic.twitter.com/vBiQEP197H
— Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen) December 7, 2024
Elite Maleficence
“CDC infection control body rejects the science on airborne transmission” [Julia Doubleday, The Guantlet]. Good HICPAC round-up. ” it’s critical to note that for decades, there was a large financial incentive against looking too closely at the claim that flus, colds, and other common viral and bacterial infections were being spread only via large ‘droplets.’ ‘Droplet’ precautions are relatively cheap and easy compared to the more complex and expensive requirements of controlling fully airborne infections. If a virus spreads through coughs and sneezes, how do you prevent transmission? Well, we all remember early pandemic guidance. Loose fitting surgical masks, social distancing and keeping diners (or patients) six feet apart, putting up physical barriers to protect from spit, and simply washing hands and covering coughs and sneezes are all examples of droplet-based infection control measures…. Proper airborne infection control procedures are expensive, but they are not mysterious. Some changes would be relatively simple; masking with proper respirator-style masks, rather than surgical, is an obvious, necessary upgrade. New ventilation and filtration standards are a simple fix technologically, but require investment. Tools like Far UVC are exciting and could mean drastic leaps forward in both patient outcomes and occupational safety for HCW. Most likely, in order to save money long term and make airborne infection control sustainable, hospitals themselves would be constructed with airborne infection control, patient isolation, airflow, ventilation, etc. as major priorities in the process of designing the infrastructure. Airborne infection control would require, rather than tinkering at the edges of existing practices, a top-down rethinking of hospital protocols.” • Those protocols being exactly what HICPAC refuses to change.
Not one CDC whistleblower. Not one:
In early 2020, when the CDC was saying don’t buy masks they don’t work, I got a call from a friend whose partner worked at the CDC: “He said to tell you to buy and wear masks. He says they’re lying to the public because they’re worried about a shortage.” I think about that a lot. https://t.co/FR6zsg8npe
— Tyler Austin Harper (@Tyler_A_Harper) December 8, 2024
Handwashing for the holidaze:
Why is @SF_DPH posting nonstop about handwashing to stop spread of germs but not once about air cleaning (filtration + ventilation)?
Beyond increased risk of infections from breath particles exhaled during holiday gatherings cooking can generate lots of particles. https://t.co/UN3DD2MXqE
— Devabhaktuni “Sri” Srikrishna (@sri_srikrishna) December 7, 2024
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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
Lambert: CDC’s wastewater page loaded. No Thanksgiving surge that I can see.
Wastewater
★This week[1] CDC December 2
Last week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC December 7
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 30
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data December 6:
National [6] CDC December 5:
Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens December 9:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC November 19:
Variants[10] CDC November 4:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20:
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
There are no statistics of interest today.
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Manufacturing: “Boeing Was on 60 Minutes Last Night. Here’s What We Learned.” [Barron’s]. “Sunday, the CBS news program 60 Minutes ran a feature interviewing Boeing whistle-blowers…. Investors can’t be blamed if their knee-jerk reaction was to cower…. But a few new tidbits for investors from the reports qualify as relatively good news. There is a useful lesson in Monday trading too. None of the people interviewed or issues raised were new. That is one reason why the stock didn’t react negatively.”
Manufacturing: “Saving Boeing is the hardest job and biggest opportunity in business” [Dominic Gates, Seattle Times]. Covers Ortberg’s November 20 all-hands speech, which I mentioned contemporaneously that Gates did not, oddly, cover. Now Gates has a copy of the presentation. “[Ortberg] evoked the ‘Working Together’ motto that former Commercial Airplanes CEO Alan Mulally championed in the 1990s during development of Boeing’s successful 777 jet. That was leadership that explicitly integrated input from all stakeholders: engineers, factory workers, parts suppliers and airline customers. Employees who spoke with The Seattle Times about Ortberg’s speech welcomed this principle and were generally optimistic that he can lead Boeing out of its current crisis. However, one engineer and a veteran staffer in the Commercial Airplanes Quality organization, both of whom asked not to be named to protect their positions, expressed disappointment that while Ortberg spoke of culture change he asked that employees move past the strategic errors that have brought Boeing down. ‘Don’t sit at the water cooler and bitch,’ Ortberg told his audience. ‘I can’t imagine how much time we’re spending complaining about what McDonnell Douglas did, what Jim McNerney did, what Dennis (Muilenburg) did.’ But overturning what those and other former CEOs wrought since the McDonnell Douglas acquisition 27 years ago — the extreme focus on the share price, the crushing of unions, the squeezing of suppliers, the cost-cutting, the outsourcing of work and treating longtime employees as dispensable — is what many see as the essential culture change.” • “Look forward and not back.”
Manufacturing: “Internal Voices Call For Boeing Breakup To Boost Stock By 100%” [Barron’s]. “In a significant and unexpected development, senior managers at Boeing have expressed their support for dismantling the conglomerate and a full breakup of the company. After Boeing’s workforce sent a letter directly to The Edge, expressing their agreement with the firm’s recommendation for a corporate breakup, this shift gained momentum. This internal push highlights a profound acknowledgment from those closest to the company’s operations: Boeing’s current structure not only impedes operational efficiency but also hinders its ability to achieve optimal market performance. The alignment of internal voices with external analysis underscores the urgency for transformative change…. The Edge Consulting Group, who have advised on breakups for the last 20 years, sees a 100% increase in the stock price from the sum of the parts if Boeing were to break up in the manner suggested…. Rare and potent is this moment of employee-driven lobbying.” • Hmm.
Manufacturing: “Boeing cancels its workplace surveillance program, will remove sensors” [Seattle Times]. “Boeing announced late Friday that it is canceling a workplace occupancy program that would install camera sensors in its offices, less than a day after The Seattle Times made the program public. The company said in an email that the program ‘has been cancelled, and we are removing the sensors that have been installed.’ The decision followed negative reaction streaming in to managers from employees concerned about their privacy. Seattle Times reader comments showed a similar outcry.” • Sensible.
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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 51 Neutral (previous close: 53 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 9 at 1:30:39 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Supply/Price. “Oil Demand drops with a global slow down” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Doesn’t the collapse of Syria bring the Third Temple closer? Do these people know something we don’t?
Photo Book
You can practically feel the chilly steaminess:
Snow day, Saul Leiter pic.twitter.com/NZ5payI68t
— Mateo (@mateof3000) November 29, 2024
News of the Wired
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From RH:
RH writes: “Apple camp 2024, Maine.”
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This entry was posted in Guest Post, Water Cooler on December 9, 2024 by Lambert Strether.
About Lambert Strether
Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.
To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.
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