By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Ensenachos, Sancti Spíritus, Cuba. “One singing in trees out back of 3400 building.”
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In Case You Might Miss…
Krugman hangs up his keyboard.
UnitedHealthcare shooting: Details continue to emerge.
Inequity aversion solely in humans?
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Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Our Famously Free Press
“Paul Krugman retires as Times columnist” (press release) [The New York Times Company]. “Paul is an important figure in the recent history of Times Opinion. Time and again, he took on the big fights, grappled with policy deeply and seriously, held the powerful to account and spoke hard truths — sometimes as a lonely voice arguing unfashionable positions. He was a strong, clear, early opponent of the American invasion of Iraq and spent years shining a light on the lies and consequences involved with that war. He was a principled critic of George W. Bush’s leadership and many of his policy priorities and, with lucid prose, helped readers understand the implications of the Bush tax cuts and his proposed privatization of Social Security. And Paul was plenty tough on Bush’s successor, too: Barack Obama hadn’t even taken office in 2009 when Paul memorably took apart the president-elect’s prescription for the Great Recession: ‘The economic plan he’s offering isn’t as strong as his language about the economic threat,’ Paul wrote. “In fact, it falls well short of what’s needed.’” • After election 2000, Krugman was one of the very few major figures, on either side of the aisle, willing to call out Bush (Al Franken, amazingly, being the only other I can recall. The Democrats were absolutely supine). I was living in Philly at the time, and when I would go into Barnes and Noble, I would be confronted with a stacks upon stacks and shelf after shelf of pro-Bush books; I performed a small act of resistance by turning the visible books over to hide the covers. Krugman (and Franken) are the only voices from that time I remember, and Krugman deserves credit for that (no matter his subsequent evolution and the problems with mainstream economics generally).
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Origins Debate
“Wuhan lab samples hold no close relatives to virus behind COVID” [Nature]. “After years of rumours that the virus that causes COVID-19 escaped from a laboratory in China, the virologist at the centre of the claims has presented data on dozens of new coronaviruses collected from bats in southern China. At a conference in Japan this week, Shi Zhengli, a specialist on bat coronaviruses, reported that none of the viruses stored in her freezers are the most recent ancestors of the virus SARS-CoV-2. Shi was leading coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a high-level biosafety laboratory, when the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in that city. Soon afterwards, theories emerged that the virus had leaked — either by accident or deliberately — from the WIV. Shi has consistently said that SARS-CoV-2 was never seen or studied in her lab. But some commentators have continued to ask whether one of the many bat coronaviruses her team collected in southern China over decades was closely related to it. Shi promised to sequence the genomes of the coronaviruses and release the data. The latest analysis, which has not been peer reviewed, includes data from the whole genomes of 56 new betacoronaviruses, the broad group to which SARS-CoV-2 belongs, as well as some partial sequences. All the viruses were collected between 2004 and 2021.” • Big if true. Seems a little late.
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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
Lambert: Sadly, I cannot get CDC’s wastewater page to load. Hopefully Monday.
Wastewater
This week[1] CDC November 25
Last week[2] CDC (until next week):
★ Variants [3] CDC December 7
★Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 30
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data December 5:
★ National [6] CDC December 5:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens December 2:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23:
Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC November 19:
★ Variants[10] CDC November 4:
Deaths
★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20:
★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States went up to 4.2% in November of 2024 from 4.1% in the prior month, in line with market expectations.”
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Manufacturing: “FAA administrator says Boeing still not producing MAX planes after strike” [Reuters]. [FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker] said Boeing’s plan is to slowly restart production later this month and he plans another meeting in January as the company ramps up…. He declined to say when he thought the FAA would restore Boeing’s ability to produce more than 38 planes per month, but said he would be surprised if it was less than multiple months before they get close to the 38 maximum…. Whitaker, who announced another audit of Boeing in October, has said it could take five years for Boeing to reform its safety culture, but noted the planemaker has deployed a new parts management system and improved training, adding, ‘What I saw this week was really what I expected to see.’ He wants Boeing to adopt an effective Safety Management System, which are a set of policies and procedures to proactively identify and address potential operational hazards. ‘We haven’t seen evidence of it working the way it’s supposed to work, where your risk assessment is driving your behavior,’ Whitaker said. The National Transportation Safety Board has also said Boeing’s SMS failed to catch problems years earlier.” And: “Whitaker said he has had some preliminary conversations with the Trump transition team and plans more, adding it was too early in the conversation to say if he expects to remain in the job.” • Nice little litmus test.
Manufacturing: “Boeing pauses surveillance plan to track employees at the office” [Seattle Times (PI)]. “Hours after The Seattle Times asked Boeing about a program to install digital surveillance sensors in its Everett offices, the company said it has ‘paused our pilot program at all locations and will keep employees updated.’ Boeing began Monday installing ‘workplace occupancy sensors’ in the main Everett office towers that use motion detectors and cameras mounted in ceiling tiles above workstations, conference rooms and common areas. The sensors are intended to gather information that’s then analyzed using artificial intelligence to feed data to Boeing real estate and facilities managers about how many people are coming to the office and using specific spaces, and for how long. For people already concerned about how their internet and cellphone use can be tracked outside work, this new form of workplace surveillance proved unwelcome, despite Boeing’s insistence that it doesn’t invade anyone’s personal privacy. The plan was outlined to employees last week and one was creeped out enough at the prospect to share the PowerPoint presentation with The Seattle Times. ‘It scared me to my core,’ said the employee, who declined to provide their name. ‘What you can see is, to say the least, evil.’ Whether from such reactions or from the press inquiry on Thursday, Boeing has backed off for now.’ And: “Boeing’s presentation gave employees fulsome assurances that the ‘sensors do not capture any identifiable information.’” • Of course, of course. Is it possibly that Ortberg is evem worse than Calhoun?
Tech: “Why is printer ink so expensive?” [Digital Rights Bytes]. “Printer companies have several methods to make it hard for you, and for competitors, to replace their expensive first-party cartridges… Competition: The printer companies have a very concentrated market—an oligopoly. After gobbling one another up, only five major companies are left standing. Legal: Printer companies rely on a mix of “intellectual property” (IP) laws to block third parties from reverse engineering their printers …. Technical: Ink cartridges from the big companies often now include microchips designed to stop you from using third-party ink. It’s possible to make a program that lies to your printer on your behalf, so that a $5 third-party ink cartridge tells your printer, “Yup, I’m an HP ink cartridge.” But printer companies also exploit their devices’ always-on network connections to push “updates” to your printer that cause them to reject third-party ink cartridges from companies that have braved the legal risks to provide you with cheaper ink.” And; “So why do printer companies charge so much for ink? Because they can.”
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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Greed (previous close: 55 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 67 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 6 at 1:41:43 PM ET.
Healthcare
More on the UnitedHealth shooting. I tried to cut out as much duplication as possible:
“Hunt for the gunman who killed UnitedHealthcare’s CEO reveals new clues about movements in New York” [Associated Press]. “Investigators believe the suspect may have traveled to New York last month on a bus that originated in Atlanta, one of the law enforcement officials said…. Investigators have learned the man lowered his mask at the front desk of the hostel because he was flirting with the woman who checked him in, one of the law enforcement officials told the AP, leading to a photo of his face. The woman told investigators that during that encounter she asked to see his smile and he pulled down his mask [amateur], the official said. Investigators believe the suspect used a fake New Jersey identification card when he checked in at the hostel, the official said.” • I would like to know what kind of mask; I’ve seen “ski mask” specified, but it’s hard for me to imagine checking in wearing a ski mask, even in a very rough hostel.
“Search continues for gunman who killed UnitedHealthcare CEO in New York” [WaPo]. “Police reiterated on Thursday that they believe the attack was premeditated, which raised questions about how and why the shooter was able to locate Thompson — who was staying in a different hotel — at that specific time and place. While Wednesday’s investor conference had been announced last month, the location was not specifically included in that information.” Oh. Oligarchs settling their differences, then? But: “New York is teeming with surveillance cameras, and footage from one obtained by The Washington Post appeared to show that about a half-hour before the shooting, the individual later identified as a person of interest exited the 57th Street station for the F Train and headed down Sixth Avenue toward the Hilton. Images released by police also seemed to show that person had used cash to buy something at a Starbucks before the shooting.” And: “Investigators are waiting for DNA test results on items they think may have belonged to the shooter — a water bottle and a cellphone abandoned near the crime scene, according to the official.” So, amateur?
“Was Brian Thompson’s Killer a Hit Man? Unlikely, Experts Say” [New York Times]. “[David Shapiro, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, and a former F.B.I. special agent] added: ‘In terms of a professional hit man, that seems unlikely. It would be very hard to get somebody to do something like this. It’s very high risk.’” And: “the shooter left a trail of clues.” Besides the Starbucks and the hostel: “After the shooting, the police found not only the shell casings but also a cellphone that they are examining. None of this looks like the work of a professional, the experts said.” And: “‘I think he planned this as meticulously as his abilities allow,’ said [Michael C. Farkas, a defense attorney who has worked as a New York City homicide prosecutor]. ‘And he’s probably intelligent enough to know the odds of evading capture indefinitely are not in his favor,’ he said. ‘He clearly wanted to send a message, and he is trying to get away.’” •
“Hit Men Aren’t What You Think” [Slate]. “The thing that struck me was the fact that he knew where [Thompson] was going to be and when he was going to be there. Generally, you get that information by observing the individual. You find their schedule and their routine, and then you intercept them somewhere along the line on their routine. This was obviously not a routine setting. So he had to have some reason to believe that Thompson was going to be coming out of that door at an approximate time to be able to lay in wait. Because it’s Manhattan, standing around waiting risks the likelihood of being challenged by a cop or security guard coming by, which suggests that he had reason to know when the guy was going to be coming out. It suggests some sort of inside information.”
“Online sleuths are racing to catch the UnitedHealthcare CEO’s killer” [WaPo]. “The early evidence shared by police has largely been composed of images from New York’s vast infrastructure of surveillance cameras, a mix of public and private recording devices that investigators routinely access to identify and track criminal suspects throughout the city. In 2021, as part of a crowdsourcing project, volunteers with the human-rights group Amnesty International counted more than 25,000 cameras on buildings, poles and streetlights across New York City. Stanford University researchers that year estimated that New York’s camera density was nearly four times higher than Los Angeles. The murder scene’s location in one of Manhattan’s busiest districts probably ensured the man was recorded from many angles, said Ralph Cilento, a former commander of detectives with the New York police who retired in 2021 and now teaches police science at John Jay College. ‘Midtown is like the Iron Dome of cameras,’ Cilento said, referencing the rocket-repelling air-defense system that blankets the Israeli skies. ‘You cannot get into Manhattan at all now without being caught on camera.’ But finding and gathering all that visual evidence can require considerable effort — and take more time than some sleuths on social media are prepared to give. ‘They will track the guy all the way through the city,’ he said, but “it’s extraordinarily tedious work.’”
“The spotlight is on health insurance companies. Patients are telling their stories of denied claims, bankruptcy and delayed care” [Yahoo News]. “For many, the cost of life-saving care is too high, and medical debt is the No. 1 cause of bankruptcy in America. That is to say nothing of the emotional labor of navigating the complex system. With Thompson’s killing and the Anthem policy, there’s been widespread response with a similar through line: a pervasive contempt for the state of health insurance in the United States. The most illustrative reactions, though are the personal ones, the tales of denied claims, battles with insurance agents, delayed care, filing for bankruptcy and more.” • Interesting to see “emotional labor” sneak in there; I would say it’s labor, first and foremost.
News of the Wired
“No evidence for inequity aversion in non-human animals: a meta-analysis of accept/reject paradigms” [Proceedings B]. The Abstract: “Disadvantageous inequity aversion (IA), a negative response to receiving less than others, is a key building block of the human sense of fairness. While some theorize that IA is shared by species across the animal kingdom, others argue that it is an exclusively human evolutionary adaptation to the selective pressures of cooperation among non-kin. Essential to this debate is the empirical question of whether non-human animals are averse towards unequal resource distributions. Over the past two decades, researchers have reported that individuals from a wide range of taxa exhibit IA; tasks where participants can reject or accept a given distribution of rewards delivered the bulk of this evidence. Yet these results have been questioned on both conceptual and empirical grounds. In the largest empirical investigation of non-human IA to date, we synthesize the primary data from 23 studies using accept/reject tasks, covering 60 430 observations of 18 species. We find no evidence for IA in non-human animals in these tasks. This finding held across all species in the dataset and pre-registered subsets (all species reported to exhibit IA, primates reported to exhibit IA, chimpanzees and capuchin monkeys). Alternative interpretations of the data and implications for the evolution of fairness are discussed.” • Hmm. People with pets, do you agree?
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SV:
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This entry was posted in Water Cooler on December 6, 2024 by Lambert Strether.
About Lambert Strether
Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.
To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.
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