The close U.S. presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could be decided on immigration, and both outcomes will have implications for Canada.
While the economy is cited as a top concern among American voters, immigration is no less a concern, with more and more people wanting more enforcement at the border.
A Gallup poll found that a majority of Americans want to lower immigration levels. 55% of respondents said so, the highest rate since 2002. 64% say immigration is good for the country overall, but that number is the lowest in a decade.
Mr. Trump has centered much of his campaign on tackling illegal or “illegal” immigration, with policy proposals that include mass deportations and other harsh crackdowns. Harris generally supports immigration, but is calling for more conservative policies compared to past Democratic platforms, in line with other countries such as Canada that have begun imposing immigration restrictions.
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Immigration Minister Mark Miller announced last week that Canada will reduce the number of new permanent residents by 21% by next year.
Erin Corcoran, a professor at the University of Notre Dame, said, “It wasn’t that long ago that whether you were a Republican or a Democrat, you had a debate about immigration…There is a problem, but immigration is also part of the solution.” “There was,” he says. An Indiana native who studies immigration policy.
“That has changed a lot.”
Here’s how the two candidates’ immigration platforms compare and what impact they could have on Canada.
Harris’ position on immigration is defined by two main priorities. One is the continuation of asylum restrictions imposed by the Biden administration and support for the bipartisan immigration reform bill that failed in Congress earlier this year.
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In June, U.S. President Joe Biden issued a presidential proclamation that would prohibit asylum-seeking status for immigrants if U.S. authorities determine that the southern border with Mexico is under control.
The measure took effect immediately, as about 4,000 people were entering the United States through that border each day, far exceeding the 2,500 limit that triggered the new policy.
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Harris suggested those restrictions would remain in place despite opposition from immigration advocates.
Biden’s move comes after efforts in the U.S. Senate twice failed to pass legislation brokered between Republicans and Democrats that would have tightened standards for asylum applications and imposed similar restrictions on border crossings. It was done.
The bill would also provide funding to hire 1,500 additional U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents and 1,600 asylum workers to speed processing and enforcement.
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Harris vowed that as president she would “resurrect” the bill and sign it into law, while also pursuing further legal reforms to the immigration system, including a path to citizenship.
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Trump has been accused of pushing Republicans to oppose the bill in order to keep the immigration issue alive during the campaign.
As vice president, Harris was tasked with addressing the “root causes” of migration from Latin American countries to stem the surge of migrants at the U.S. border. The effort has established processing centers in several of these countries, including Guatemala and Colombia, allowing migrants to apply to enter the United States before making the perilous journey north.
Harris has been troubled by Biden’s track record of overseeing a surge in migrant encounters at the southern border during his presidency, although the numbers have fallen significantly since December.
President Trump’s immigration policies focus almost exclusively on illegal immigration and are far more restrictive.
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He pledged to launch the largest deportation effort in U.S. history, with the goal of returning at least 10 million illegal immigrants to their home countries, with a focus on criminals.
President Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, recently said it would be “reasonable” to deport 1 million people a year.
President Trump has hinted at bringing in the National Guard and even federal troops to support the operation, and has also ruled out building new immigrant detention camps to house people awaiting deportation. do not have.
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He has called for hiring 10,000 more Border Patrol agents, which he said could be accomplished by getting Congress to approve pay raises and signing bonus contracts to attract new hires.
He would abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrant parents, cancel humanitarian parole, and impose “ideological scrutiny” on immigrants and refugees. In response to the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, he said he would deport foreign pro-Palestinian student demonstrators and revoke their visas.
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Trump also promised to reintroduce policies from his first term, including restrictions forcing asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their cases are processed and completing a long-touted wall along the southern border.
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President Trump and his allies argue that immigration is the root cause of everything from rising crime to soaring home prices in the United States, but researchers disagree.
“It’s much easier to blame foreigners than it is to address the underlying structural problems,” said Eileen Bloemrad, co-director of the Center for Immigration Studies at the University of British Columbia.
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How could Canada be affected?
Researchers and economists say a Harris president, like a Biden administration, would likely be more cooperative with Canada in resolving common immigration issues, while a Trump administration would likely be more belligerent, leading to further spillovers. The consensus is that it is likely to have an effect.
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Canada faces pressure to do its part to reduce the number of migrants entering the United States through its northern border, where encounters with migrants are rapidly increasing as opposed to its southern border. Canada’s testing measures have come under renewed scrutiny following the arrest of multiple suspected terrorist plotters. One of them was planning an attack in New York City, authorities said.
“Anything related to the border poses an unreasonable risk to Canada because we don’t want the United States to act unilaterally. We’ve seen in Mexico what that does to us. Christian Leuprecht, a professor at Queen’s University and the Royal Military College, and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said.
Harris’s inauguration could increase public pressure on Canada to introduce stricter border checks and immigration measures, but most negotiations are likely to take place behind the scenes and through diplomatic channels. That’s what experts think. Congressional Republicans are likely to pressure Harris and Canada to take a tougher stance.
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But they say Harris’ plan to balance restrictions on asylum and undocumented immigration with increasing avenues for legal immigration is in line with Canada and other Western countries, and that the global He added that this could lead to a more balanced solution.
“[Canada]doesn’t think of immigration issues as a border issue,” said Dr. Anna Triandafilidou, professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and Canadian Excellence Research Chair in Immigration and Integration. He added that it is unsustainable to look strictly through Border security lens.
“The only way to control immigration at the border is if you’re willing to shoot people.”
7:57 Illegal immigration from Canada to the US is rapidly increasing
President Trump’s policies, which focus primarily on border issues, could have far-reaching implications.
For example, his mass deportation plan could cause frightened illegal immigrants to flee to Canada, potentially overwhelming state and territory borders and social services, Global News reported. said the experts interviewed.
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Changes to Temporary Protected Status for Haitians who sought asylum in the United States under the Trump administration led to an influx of migrants claiming asylum at the Roxham Road border crossing into Quebec, which led to last year’s safe third country transfer between the United States and Canada. This led to the expansion of the agreement. year.
Asked in the House of Commons this week if the government had a plan in place if the election of President Trump led to a “flood” of immigrants from the United States to Canada, Immigration Minister Mark Miller simply said, “Yes.”
An analysis published in April by Scotiabank Economics predicted that mass deportations of 10 million people would also result in a loss of nearly 1 per cent of Canada’s GDP. Economists say temporary foreign workers are also likely to be subject to deportation, many of whom work in Canada.
In an October Pew Research poll, a majority of U.S. voters across party lines agreed that illegal and legal immigrants are filling jobs that Americans don’t want.
Ultimately, Canada will need to work with the next U.S. administration to solve immigration issues together.
“The face of immigration is changing. What it means to be persecuted is changing. Not just economic, political and religious persecution, but climate change as well,” Corcoran said.
“We need a global effort to solve this, and right now we don’t have what we need.”
