2:00PM Water Cooler 12/27/2024 | naked capitalism

Biden Administration

“A Reflective Biden Harbors Some Regrets as His Term Winds Down” [New York Times]. “Despite being described by his allies as in a pensive, sometimes angry, mood as the end of his term approaches, the president has not made himself available to answer many questions about his recent actions.” How often is “sometimes”? More: “Aside from joking about his wealth, Mr. Biden has openly stewed over one of Mr. Trump’s flashier — and apparently effective — stunts as president. During the same speech at Brookings, Mr. Biden said he had been “stupid” not to sign his name to Covid stimulus checks that were distributed to Americans early in his term. Mr. Trump emblazoned his signature on checks distributed after a relief bill was passed in the spring of 2020. Mr. Biden and his advisers learned a little something from Mr. Trump’s tendency to scrawl his name on things. By 2023, signs touting infrastructure projects “funded by President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law” began popping up around the country. But those had little political impact compared with a signed check.” • Bush the Younger signed his checks in the 2000s. Obama, in his miserably inadequate stimulus package, put up no signs, which gave rise to comment. Trump signed his checks. And only in 2023 does Biden’s name go up on signs. Slow learners, or what?

Trump Transition

DOGE personality Vivek Ramaswamy fired the opening gun:

One quick reaction:

Apparently Americans now have to outcompete people in the entire world for jobs inside America

“Most Americans Blame Insurance Profits and Denials Alongside Killer in UHC CEO Death, Poll Finds” [Time]. “About 7 in 10 adults say that denials for health care coverage by insurance companies, or the profits made by health insurance companies, also bear at least “a moderate amount” of responsibility for Thompson’s death. Younger Americans are particularly likely to see the murder as the result of a confluence of forces rather than just one person’s action.” • Hmm.

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“Will the jury let Luigi Mangione get away with murder?” [The Hill]. “Featured centrally in the criminal defense lawyer’s toolbox is a determination to find the most effective method of prying open the deepest thoughts of jurors, particularly the elusive nullifier — those jurors whose most intimate views motivate them to work to acquit a trial defendant regardless of the facts, even in the face of strong evidence of guilt. Of course, it is the prosecutor’s duty to exclude them. My heresy notwithstanding, it is indeed the defense lawyer’s righteous obligation to identify those nullifiers and try to seat them. ” And: “And prosecutors here are not without fault in providing would-be nullifiers with grist for the mill. They share some responsibility for the spike in public sentiment for Mangione by charging terrorism and raising the offense level to Murder 1 in one jurisdiction, threatening a possible death penalty in another jurisdiction, and participating in a food fight over who takes him to trial first. The piling on, the escorts with body armor and rifles, the perp walking and the overcharging intensify his folk-hero standing and add fuel to a potential nullification fire that is already burning bright.”

“Insanity Defense Is Luigi Mangione’s Only Option: Attorney” [Newsweek]. “Greg Germain, an attorney with over 30 years of experience, said that he doesn’t believe it will be a case of jury nullification, in which a jury acquits the accused out of sympathy for them or their cause. Germain, who teaches law at Syracuse University in New York, said that, given the weight of evidence, insanity is likely the only defense that will work. “It’s hard for me to imagine jury nullification. People may not like their health insurance companies, but I don’t think they will condone murdering insurance executives in the street,” [Germain] said. ‘The only possible defense I could imagine is insanity, which is very hard to establish in a planned case like this,’ he said.”

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“Nordstrom, Maison Margiela Latest Brands Caught Up in Public’s Fascination With Luigi Mangione” [Women’s Wear Daily]. “Levi’s, Peak Design, Tommy Hilfiger and Monopoly were previously referenced in news stories and social media posts about the [Mangione] case, with Peak Design’s CEO Peter Dering facing social media backlash and threats after he informed The New York Times that he had contacted the New York Police Department’s tip line. Dering got involved with the case after several people had texted him that the shooter appeared to be wearing a Peak Design backpack in surveillance images. ‘What we see with Mangione is he has quickly become a folk hero and a fashion folk hero. It’s almost like the movie ‘The Joker,’ where people dressed like him,’ Diana Rickard, a criminal justice professor at the City University of New York, previously told WWD about Mangione’s online popularity.” • So if you want to serve on the jury, don’t wear the sweater….

“Letters to the Editor: Enough with the constant media coverage of Luigi Mangione” [Los Angeles Times]. “Enough of repeatedly seeing Mangione’s smugly defiant image on TV news and in newspaper photos. Same goes for any pre-trial publicity of his skewed ideological conceits. Let criminal proceedings take their course. Once Mangione has been tried, ample pertinent evidence will be available for the public to cast judgment on him.”

“Bets on CEO Murder Suspect’s Fate Test Rules on Event Contracts” [Bloomberg]. “Contracts offered by Kalshi Inc., a New York-based exchange, allow retail traders to put money on the outcome of nearly anything. Kalshi listed wagers on Dec. 11 related to Thompson’s death that included whether the suspect, Luigi Mangione, would be extradited to New York from Pennsylvania, whether he acted alone and whether he’ll be convicted or plead guilty. Two days later, trading suddenly halted, with Kalshi telling customers it made the decision ‘after receiving notice from our regulators,’ according to messages reviewed by Bloomberg News. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Kalshi declined to comment. The CFTC, which regulates Kalshi, bans futures trading linked to crimes including assassination, terrorism and war if the agency decides the so-called events contracts are against the public interest.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Lambert here: The chart I find really weird is New York. It’s not really flat; what we see is a very gradual increase. I don’t know how to give an account for that. Note that New York State as a whole is up:

I can’t give an account for this either. (I track New York City because of its status as an international hub for air travel, and its history.)

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater

Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 21

★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 21

Hospitalization

★New York[5] New York State, data December 24:

★ National [6] CDC December 26:

Positivity

National[7] Walgreens December 23:

Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14:

Travelers Data

★ Positivity[9] CDC December 9:
★ Variants[10] CDC December 9

Deaths

Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20:

Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slow and small but steady increase.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are no offical statistics of interest today.

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Manufacturing: “Boeing’s space business could experience liftoff in 2025” [Quartz]. “The Motley Fool reports that there’s significant investor intrigue surrounding the company’s space program after its rough 2024…. The key to those efforts could be Boeing’s Vulcan rockets, which Amazon will be using for a number of space launches next year. Additionally, the company is anticipating an approval to run national security missions for the U.S. government. A brighter 2025 would mark a needed turnaround for Boeing. Some observers feared that Vulcan’s national security approval might be in danger after a rocket booster fell off during an October launch.” • Oh noes:

Manufacturing: “Boeing battles brain drain as engineers chase the allure of space” [Financial Times]. “Boeing is cutting jobs by 10 per cent across the company, and this month a second round of lay-offs brought the total of union-represented engineers leaving to 400. The blow to morale comes as engineers — freed from the ‘velvet handcuffs’ of long-term benefits — are contrasting Boeing’s turmoil with the allure of space companies staking out exciting goals. The average tenure of a Boeing engineer has fallen over the past decade from 16.4 years to 12.6 years, according to data from the union representing 12,000 Boeing engineers, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace. Tenure shortened in almost every age bracket, with employees in their 20s and 30s averaging fewer years, as well as those in their late 40s through 65. The risk of this ‘brain drain’, as analysts, recruiters and union officials have described it, is that it drags on current operations and could make it harder for Boeing to launch its next new plane. ‘All of this experience is gone,’ said Matt Kempf, SPEEA’s senior director for compensation and retirement. That raises concerns because ‘aerospace engineers aren’t made, they’re grown.’”

Tech: “Parents of OpenAI Whistleblower Don’t Believe He Died By Suicide, Order Second Autopsy” [SFist]. “The parents have hired an attorney, Phil Kearney, and they have commissioned a second, independent autopsy.” • Hmm.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 33 Fear (previous close: 35 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 28 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 27 at 1:02:05 PM ET.

News of the Wired

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AF:

AF writes: “My winter project right now is trying to improve the soil quality in the raised beds I built earlier this year. I had to use poor quality soil to keep costs down so I’ve taken inspiration from hugelkultur and permaculture to improve the soil. I started with a layer of small logs topped with crushed leaves and other yard debris. I used cheap organic raised bed mix with a middle layer of crushed egg shells and some more crushed leaves. Topped everything off with grass clippings and currently adding a final layer of crushed leaves. I can’t make compost on this property so I’m taking the rest of the crushed leaves and making leaf mold but I don’t think it will be ready for a couple years. It was probably a mistake to do 17″ tall beds but at least my arms are noticeably bigger!” My goodness, what a glorious setting! Can readers comment on the technique? I had good luck with hugelkultur and tomatoes, but it’s hard to have bad luck with tomatoes….

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This entry was posted in Guest Post, Water Cooler on December 27, 2024 by Lambert Strether.

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.

To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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