2:00PM Water Cooler 12/1/2024 | naked capitalism

Normally, I don’t link to Current Affairs, because Nathan J. Robinson union-busted his own magazine, but for Thomas Frank, I will make an exception.l

Realignment and Legitimacy

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Sequelae: Covid

“Nearly half of NYC’s aspiring drivers failed their DMV road tests this year” [Gothamist]. “: Nearly half the Big Apple’s would-be motorists have failed their driving tests so far this year. That failure rate — 48% — is higher than the statewide average of 43%, according to the Department of Motor Vehicles. The odds of flunking the test within the city has risen steadily since the COVID-19 pandemic: In 2021, the failure rate in the city was 41%, the data shows.” • Odd!

I wonder why these Google Trends results:

‘Tis a mystery!

Elite Maleficence

I guess we have our answer on why the teacher’s unions were silent on school ventilation and masking:

For more on the Great Barrington Declaration, see here.

“A look back at what COVID was really like” [Kevin Drum]. “Epidemiologists initially said that COVID was spread by droplets. That’s because the evidence pointed that way[1]. When evidence piled up that aerosol transmission was also important, they changed their public statements[2]. But their safety guidance didn’t change, because in most cases it didn’t matter how the virus was spread[3]. Standard epidemic hygiene was mostly the same either way[4].” • I rarely see so much error crammed into a single paragraph. Links on request, but I think readers know all this stuff. [1]. No. There was never any evidence for droplet dogma in general, or for Covid in particular. The epidemiologists spoke from ideology, not science. [2]. No. They fought changing public statements tooth and nail, as the recent UK hearings showed; at least one wrong WHO tweet is still up (last I checked, and I’ve been checking for years. [3] Of course it matters how the virus is spread. If the virus does not “spread like smoke” you don’t have to open the windows! Or use a Corsi-Rosenthal box. [4] No. In the beginning, and in the more beknighted facilities still, handwashing is recommended against Covid. But Covid is not transmitted by fomites. Somebody tell Drum to stay in his lane.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Even though the Covid numbers seem low, please remember that the data is not nearly as good as it once was, that it lags, and that the downside risks of catching Covid are considerable. For those who have developed their own personal protocols, I wouldn’t relax them. Maybe next year.

Wastewater

Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC November 23

★Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 23

Hospitalization

★ New York[5] New York State, data November 29:

National [6] CDC November 28:

Positivity

★ National[7] Walgreens November 25:

Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23:

Travelers Data

Positivity[9] CDC November 4:
Variants[10] CDC November 4:

Deaths

Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2:

Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 48.4 in November 2024 from 46.5 in October, beating forecasts of 47.5. The reading pointed to another albeit softer contraction in the manufacturing sector.”

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The Bezzle: “Trump’s Return Heralds Litigation Peace for Crypto” [Wall Street Journal]. “The Securities and Exchange Commission sued crypto exchanges Binance, Coinbase and Kraken last year, accusing the platforms of dealing assets that are illegal to trade without regulatory supervision. Crypto executives had refused to comply with financial rules that they said were a bad fit for digital currencies.

The SEC, under the leadership of Chair Gary Gensler, mounted the legal campaign in lieu of the industry’s request to craft new crypto-specific regulations that embraced a lighter touch. Had the commission won in court, the victories would have compelled the freewheeling market to follow longstanding agency rules that protect investors who buy securities. But litigation can take many years to resolve, and with Donald Trump’s election to a second term, Gensler has run out of time before his biggest cases reach the finish line.

Trump’s return to the White House will mean a new era for crypto—with fewer government hurdles. The president-elect, shedding previous skepticism of crypto, has pledged support for the digital-asset industry [sic].” • Lordie. Cf. Veblen’s distinction between business and industry; crypto is all business.

The Bezzle: “Enter the ‘ether,’ where scammers weaponize your emotions” [WaPo]. “[Fraud prevention experts] Shadel and Pratkanis said the levers used to swindle Judith out of nearly $600,000 followed a template of sorts; a three-part strategy that swindlers customize to each potential victim…. The first step is to gain their trust…. To build this level of intimacy, scammers spend hours on the phone with their victims or bombard them with email or texts. The exchanges are intended to extract personal details to build rapport ahead of any request for money…. The second step of the fraud playbook is to get victims “under the ether,” the frenzied state in which they suspend reason…. Lastly, the impostors try to create a sense of urgency. For example, they might tell a victim that if they don’t move their money out of their accounts, the people who stole their Social Security number will take it all, or the funds will be frozen as part of a criminal prosecution. ‘It’s baked into our brains to respond to threats,’ Shadel said. ‘You’ve got to create a reason for them to do something now.’ Criminals construct a wonderland of the mind, a reality that appears authentic to the scam target. This is why the oft-used maxim, ‘If it’s too good to be true, it probably is,’ isn’t the most effective way to fight fraud.” • Seems like these methods are more universal than fraud.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 66 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 64 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 2 at 1:53:27 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 183. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?

Gallery

Musical interlude:

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “We have about 4 or 5 hibiscus bushes lining our driveway. Sadley, I don’t recall their names, so I just call this the ‘pink one.’” Composition!

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This entry was posted in Water Cooler on December 2, 2024 by Lambert Strether.

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.

To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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