San Antonio’s housing market is cooled, and sellers face a new reality: less money for their homes
In San Antonio, 10% of all listings have a risk of selling less than homeowners. This is almost twice the 6% share last year, the fifth highest among the top 50 metros. Nationwide, there is a risk that 6% of sellers will lose money on sales.
However, shares vary widely depending on when someone bought their home, and those who buy these days tend to be at greater risk.
30% of post-pandemic sellers risk losing money on sales. This is the fourth highest share in the country. Nationwide sharing is 16%. 15% of sellers who purchase during the pandemic risk losing money on sales. Nationwide, this share is 9%. 1% of sellers who purchased before the pandemic risk losing money on sales of less than 2% at risk nationwide.
San Antonio is a more balanced market than cities like Austin, but demand is declining sharply, but sellers still outperform buyers and push prices down. San Belt Metro generally loses the largest shares in a listing where there is a risk of sales. This is because prices have skyrocketed, but soon they’re back on Earth, with unfortunate sellers in a hurry.
That’s not to say that San Antonio home sellers are actually coming out behind. Sellers facing financial losses usually pay the asking price and wait until they find a buyer willing to return home from the market or rent. Moreover, the majority of sellers still make money from home sales. Nationwide, 94% of homes are on sale than they buy, compared to just 37% in 2012.
How has the San Antonio housing market changed since the pandemic?
San Antonio’s housing market was hot during the pandemic. Home buyers have rushed to take advantage of historically low mortgage fees, snapping available homes and ejecting city supplies. As a result, prices have skyrocketed. Between 2020 and 2022, the median selling price rose 36% to a record $338,000. This is still relatively low nationwide, but for San Antonio, there has been a big change.
Today, the market is chilling, partly as prices have skyrocketed. Home prices have fallen nearly $20,000, fewer homes are on sale, and buyers are waiting for the bystanders. Climate risks and rising insurance costs are also putting pressure on them. This means that they have lost some of the value they have gained these days and are at risk of selling less than they have purchased.
A drop in prices creates a bigger gap
If prices fall by the end of the year to match Redfin’s forecasts, more sellers will be more susceptible to losing money at home. Even the most affected metros will see a significant increase in New Brunswick, New Jersey, Providence, and RI.
If prices drop by the predicted 1%, 12% of the San Antonio list is at risk. A 3% drop in price puts 15% at risk. A 5% drop in price puts 19% at risk.
Those who bought before the pandemic face the lowest risk of losing and selling, but the lower mortgage rates make them less likely to move in the first place.
How buyers and sellers navigate the San Antonio market
The San Antonio housing market has changed dramatically since the pandemic, giving buyers more opportunities and putting pressure on sellers.
Buyers: Market buyers are generally commanders in San Antonio, as housing costs are higher and there are more homes in the market. They should negotiate when the right home comes and be prepared to move quickly. Sellers: Sellers generally don’t have the bargaining power they had during the pandemic, and may need to provide incentives that will bravely fascinate today’s market.
Complete Metro-level data
Methodology
The largest US Metros of the 50 largest are based on a Redfin report that analyzed the active list of MLS in May. All housing data is from Redfin.
The report identifies the share of sellers who are actually losing their homes and selling them, not the share of sellers who are at risk of losing their homes and selling them, and does not take into account the costs of closing. The pandemic was defined as the highest rise in home prices between July 2020 and July 2022. For more information, see the methodology in the original report.
